The three most underrated teams in the NFL
Miami Dolphins
First off, the Dolphins have scored more points than they've allowed, yet they're only 5-10. I'd argue that they are the most unlucky team in the NFL, which essentially makes them underrated. Matt Moore is usually thought of as a mediocre NFL quarterback, but his QB Rating of 89.8 is 11th best in the NFL. The defense has allowed the seventh-fewest points in the NFL. This team could surprise next season in the AFC.
Carolina Panthers
I think the Panthers would have a good shot at beating any team in the first round of the playoffs. Cam Newton is only getting better as the season progresses, and the Panthers defense has allowed less than 20 points in four of their last five games.
Detroit Lions
It may seem strange to put a 10-5 team on this list, but no one is talking about the Lions making a deep run in the postseason. Detroit is inconsistent, no question, but it is also explosive. The Lions are +91 in point differential. Kevin Smith is healthy, which makes their offense as good as there is in football. The Lions are also 5-2 on the road.
Most overrated teams
Denver Broncos
After the loss to the Bills, most people are off the Tebow bandwagon, but for those who remain, it may be time to hop on a more contemporary means of transportation. The Broncos have been blown out twice in a row. Before the losing streak, they would've lost if not for a miss by San Diego kicker Nick Novak, an interception by Minnesota quarterback Christian Ponder and an epic collapse of the Chicago Bears. The Broncos may beat the hapless Chiefs on Sunday, but expect them to be blown out if they make the dance.
New York Jets
The Jets have not beat a team that currently has a winning record since Week 1. Mark Sanchez has struggled all season long, and the Jets rushing attack has been inconsistent. But what's more concerning is the Jets defense, which allows 22.9 points per game, 22nd in the NFL. It all adds up to a team that doesn't do anything above average.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have not beat a team that currently has a winning record since Week 2. The Dallas defense gives up big plays in the running game and the passing game. Tony Romo has had an excellent season, but I expect the 'Boys will be knocked out by the Giants, who simply are a better all-around team.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Postgame notes: 49ers edge Seahawks
Following the 49ers 19-17 triumph against the Seahawks on Saturday, I felt mixed emotions.
On the bright side, the 49ers are in prime position to secure the NFC’s second seed. I’ve stressed the importance of this many times, and as a 49ers fan I’m relieved that they are likely to secure a first-round bye.
I think all 49ers fans wanted to get the No. 2 seed because we knew that the Saints are almost impossible to beat in the Superdome. But now it’s imperative because the 49ers need the rest.
Delanie Walker and Kyle Williams suffered what appear to be brutal injuries. I’m guessing they both sustained concussions. Justin Smith left the game for a series but returned soon after.
Add Patrick Willis and Ted Ginn, who did not play against Seattle, and it’s obvious that the 49ers could use the rest.
As for the game, the Seahawks were the first team this year to run the ball on the 49ers. Marshawn Lynch was falling forward nearly every play. The 49ers were lucky to only be down by a touchdown at halftime.
The key play of the first half was the 49ers goal-line stand. On third-and-goal from the 1, the Seahawks bootlegged Jackson, and he tried to run it in. Carlos Rogers stopped him at the 1, and the Seahawks settled for a field goal.
The 49ers absolutely dominated the Seahawks in every facet in the second half. On the 49ers opening drive, Gore’s 4-yard touchdown plunge tied the game and gave San Francisco all the momentum. But soon after, the 49ers settled for two field goals deep in Seattle territory, taking a 16-10 lead. The play calling was absolutely conservative, whether Harbaugh admits it or not.
After Alex Smith was nearly intercepted by Earl Thomas in the end zone, Harbaugh never gave Smith a chance to make a play in the red zone.
Harbaugh’s field goal plan was working until Andy Lee’s punt was blocked, setting up a 4-yard rushing touchdown by Lynch.
At the time, I felt that the 49ers were incredibly unlucky, but it was a good precursor to the playoffs. The 49ers will not be able to sit on six-point leads for an entire quarter during the postseason.
The 49ers answered when Michael Crabtree caught a 41-yard pass from Alex Smith. Once again, the 49ers then went conservative, deciding to take the points and give Seattle a chance to win the game with a field goal.
This left a bad taste in my mouth. I thought Harbaugh had more trust in Smith. I thought the 49ers offense was more dynamic than the Trent Dilfer-led Ravens of the early 2000s.
I thought wrong.
The 49ers defense was able to hold on against the Seahawks, but I’m not confident it will do the same against the elite teams in the NFL.
Stats to note:
The 49ers allowed their first rushing touchdown of the season. The fewest touchdowns allowed in a season is two, so the 49ers can still break that record by keeping the Rams out of the end zone next week.
With 42 field goals, David Akers has broken the NFL record for most field goals in a season.
The 49ers have not scored a first half touchdown in seven games. In those seven games, David Akers has kicked 17 first half field goals.
Lynch (21 carries, 107 yards) ended the 49ers 36-game streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher.
On the bright side, the 49ers are in prime position to secure the NFC’s second seed. I’ve stressed the importance of this many times, and as a 49ers fan I’m relieved that they are likely to secure a first-round bye.
I think all 49ers fans wanted to get the No. 2 seed because we knew that the Saints are almost impossible to beat in the Superdome. But now it’s imperative because the 49ers need the rest.
Delanie Walker and Kyle Williams suffered what appear to be brutal injuries. I’m guessing they both sustained concussions. Justin Smith left the game for a series but returned soon after.
Add Patrick Willis and Ted Ginn, who did not play against Seattle, and it’s obvious that the 49ers could use the rest.
As for the game, the Seahawks were the first team this year to run the ball on the 49ers. Marshawn Lynch was falling forward nearly every play. The 49ers were lucky to only be down by a touchdown at halftime.
The key play of the first half was the 49ers goal-line stand. On third-and-goal from the 1, the Seahawks bootlegged Jackson, and he tried to run it in. Carlos Rogers stopped him at the 1, and the Seahawks settled for a field goal.
The 49ers absolutely dominated the Seahawks in every facet in the second half. On the 49ers opening drive, Gore’s 4-yard touchdown plunge tied the game and gave San Francisco all the momentum. But soon after, the 49ers settled for two field goals deep in Seattle territory, taking a 16-10 lead. The play calling was absolutely conservative, whether Harbaugh admits it or not.
After Alex Smith was nearly intercepted by Earl Thomas in the end zone, Harbaugh never gave Smith a chance to make a play in the red zone.
Harbaugh’s field goal plan was working until Andy Lee’s punt was blocked, setting up a 4-yard rushing touchdown by Lynch.
At the time, I felt that the 49ers were incredibly unlucky, but it was a good precursor to the playoffs. The 49ers will not be able to sit on six-point leads for an entire quarter during the postseason.
The 49ers answered when Michael Crabtree caught a 41-yard pass from Alex Smith. Once again, the 49ers then went conservative, deciding to take the points and give Seattle a chance to win the game with a field goal.
This left a bad taste in my mouth. I thought Harbaugh had more trust in Smith. I thought the 49ers offense was more dynamic than the Trent Dilfer-led Ravens of the early 2000s.
I thought wrong.
The 49ers defense was able to hold on against the Seahawks, but I’m not confident it will do the same against the elite teams in the NFL.
Stats to note:
The 49ers allowed their first rushing touchdown of the season. The fewest touchdowns allowed in a season is two, so the 49ers can still break that record by keeping the Rams out of the end zone next week.
With 42 field goals, David Akers has broken the NFL record for most field goals in a season.
The 49ers have not scored a first half touchdown in seven games. In those seven games, David Akers has kicked 17 first half field goals.
Lynch (21 carries, 107 yards) ended the 49ers 36-game streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher.
Friday, December 23, 2011
49ers vs. Seahawks prediction
Marshawn Lynch has scored a touchdown in 10 straight games. The 49ers haven't allowed a rushing touchdown this season.
Something has to give.
The 49ers and Seahawks square off on Saturday with playoff implications for both teams. Seattle needs to win its last two games just to have a shot at making the playoffs, whereas the 49ers would clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed with two wins.
The Seahawks have won five out of six, and much of the credit has been given to Lynch, who has at least 20 carries in all six games and 100 rushing yards in four of them. But don't forget to credit the Seattle defense, which has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in all five wins.
Alex Smith will be challenged by the crowd noise, but don't assume he'll play poorly because of it. Smith has had some of his best performances in Seattle -- a three-TD (two passing, one rushing) performance on Thursday Night Football in his second season (49ers won 24-14) and a 310-yard two-TD performance in 2009 (49ers lost 20-17).
The strength of the Seahawks defense is their front seven. You may recall in Week 1 when the 49ers beat Seattle, Frank Gore struggled to get going. Gore rushed for just 59 yards, and the 49ers as an offense had 209 yards. Fueled by two fourth-quarter special teams touchdowns by Ted Ginn, the 49ers won 33-17.
Much has changed since their first tilt, as both teams have established solid rushing attacks. So as far keys to the game go, the 49ers will need Frank Gore to outplay Marshawn Lynch. Lynch rushed for just 33 yards in the first matchup, but as mentioned before, the Seattle run game is playing at a higher level. The 49ers could use a healthy Patrick Willis, who is a game-time decision.
Secondly, the 49ers have to win the turnover battle. The 49ers have the best turnover margin in the NFL, but Seattle has +13 turnover margin in its last six games. The easiest way to create turnovers is to get ahead of the opposition and get it in third and longs, and the 49ers can do this if they shut down Lynch.
Lastly, Kyle Williams needs to have a breakout game. The 49ers have relied on Ginn's returns all year, but he is out this week. Williams will take his place, and the 49ers can't afford a gaffe like Williams had against Pittsburgh when he fumbled as a returner (he caught a huge break when a penalty erased the fumble). Williams will also be Smith's No. 2 receiver. Williams has been one of the most reliable offensive players for weeks, but this will be his first stint without Ginn, and it's likely that Braylon Edwards won't play either.
Prediction
The Seahawks don't have the offensive weapons to really threaten the 49ers suffocating defense. I have no reason to believe that Lynch will crack the 49ers defense that's stood tall against more talented backs (LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson) Thus, this game will come down to the 49ers cashing in on their opportunities and winning the turnover battle. It should be a low-scoring game, the type of game the 49ers have been thriving in all season.
49ers 16 Seahawks 10
Something has to give.
The 49ers and Seahawks square off on Saturday with playoff implications for both teams. Seattle needs to win its last two games just to have a shot at making the playoffs, whereas the 49ers would clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed with two wins.
The Seahawks have won five out of six, and much of the credit has been given to Lynch, who has at least 20 carries in all six games and 100 rushing yards in four of them. But don't forget to credit the Seattle defense, which has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in all five wins.
Alex Smith will be challenged by the crowd noise, but don't assume he'll play poorly because of it. Smith has had some of his best performances in Seattle -- a three-TD (two passing, one rushing) performance on Thursday Night Football in his second season (49ers won 24-14) and a 310-yard two-TD performance in 2009 (49ers lost 20-17).
The strength of the Seahawks defense is their front seven. You may recall in Week 1 when the 49ers beat Seattle, Frank Gore struggled to get going. Gore rushed for just 59 yards, and the 49ers as an offense had 209 yards. Fueled by two fourth-quarter special teams touchdowns by Ted Ginn, the 49ers won 33-17.
Much has changed since their first tilt, as both teams have established solid rushing attacks. So as far keys to the game go, the 49ers will need Frank Gore to outplay Marshawn Lynch. Lynch rushed for just 33 yards in the first matchup, but as mentioned before, the Seattle run game is playing at a higher level. The 49ers could use a healthy Patrick Willis, who is a game-time decision.
Secondly, the 49ers have to win the turnover battle. The 49ers have the best turnover margin in the NFL, but Seattle has +13 turnover margin in its last six games. The easiest way to create turnovers is to get ahead of the opposition and get it in third and longs, and the 49ers can do this if they shut down Lynch.
Lastly, Kyle Williams needs to have a breakout game. The 49ers have relied on Ginn's returns all year, but he is out this week. Williams will take his place, and the 49ers can't afford a gaffe like Williams had against Pittsburgh when he fumbled as a returner (he caught a huge break when a penalty erased the fumble). Williams will also be Smith's No. 2 receiver. Williams has been one of the most reliable offensive players for weeks, but this will be his first stint without Ginn, and it's likely that Braylon Edwards won't play either.
Prediction
The Seahawks don't have the offensive weapons to really threaten the 49ers suffocating defense. I have no reason to believe that Lynch will crack the 49ers defense that's stood tall against more talented backs (LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson) Thus, this game will come down to the 49ers cashing in on their opportunities and winning the turnover battle. It should be a low-scoring game, the type of game the 49ers have been thriving in all season.
49ers 16 Seahawks 10
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
NFL Playoff Picture heading into Week 16
Projected NFC Standings
1. Green Bay Packers 15-1
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 13-3
4. Dallas Cowboys 9-7
5. Atlanta Falcons 10-6
6. Detroit Lions 10-6
- I have a strong urge to put the Eagles as the the division winner of the NFC East. They would need two wins, a New York Giants loss to the Jets and a Giants win against the Cowboys. This means if the Giants beat the Jets on Saturday, the Eagles will have nothing to play for. I'm guessing that the Jets do beat the Giants, and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, but the 'Boys then beat the Giants to win the division on the last day of the regular season (this would leave the standings as Dallas 9-7, Philadelphia 8-8, NYG 7-9, Washington 6-10)
Projected AFC Standings
1. New England Patriots 13-3
2. Baltimore Ravens 12-4
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Denver Broncos 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. New York Jets 10-6
- No big surprises here. The Jets currently own the tiebreaker over the Bengals if both teams finish 10-6. I have the Bengals losing to the Ravens in Week 17 anyway. The Jets are no shoe-in to win their last two games (vs. Giants, @ Miami), but I say they edge both teams and get in. Rex Ryan has a history of sneaking into the playoffs, why would this year be any different? If the Jets do get in, it's entirely possible that the second round of the AFC playoffs is identical to last year's (NYJ @ New England, (Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh).
1. Green Bay Packers 15-1
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 13-3
4. Dallas Cowboys 9-7
5. Atlanta Falcons 10-6
6. Detroit Lions 10-6
- I have a strong urge to put the Eagles as the the division winner of the NFC East. They would need two wins, a New York Giants loss to the Jets and a Giants win against the Cowboys. This means if the Giants beat the Jets on Saturday, the Eagles will have nothing to play for. I'm guessing that the Jets do beat the Giants, and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, but the 'Boys then beat the Giants to win the division on the last day of the regular season (this would leave the standings as Dallas 9-7, Philadelphia 8-8, NYG 7-9, Washington 6-10)
Projected AFC Standings
1. New England Patriots 13-3
2. Baltimore Ravens 12-4
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Denver Broncos 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. New York Jets 10-6
- No big surprises here. The Jets currently own the tiebreaker over the Bengals if both teams finish 10-6. I have the Bengals losing to the Ravens in Week 17 anyway. The Jets are no shoe-in to win their last two games (vs. Giants, @ Miami), but I say they edge both teams and get in. Rex Ryan has a history of sneaking into the playoffs, why would this year be any different? If the Jets do get in, it's entirely possible that the second round of the AFC playoffs is identical to last year's (NYJ @ New England, (Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh).
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Postgame notes: 49ers power past Steelers
Prior to Monday Night's kickoff, dissenters said the 49ers hadn't beat anybody good and were consequently overrated.
Come Tuesday morning, there was a new excuse:
"If Big Ben was not injured, then the Steelers would've beat the 49ers."
So it goes as a 2011 49ers fan.
Whether the 49ers are getting the respect they deserve is an argument for another time, but nobody can take away their dominating 20-3 victory against Pittsburgh on Monday.
If San Francisco (11-3) wins its final two regular season games, it secures a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
The injury status of Joe Staley, Ted Ginn and Patrick Willis continues to be up in the air. In other words, the 49ers would benefit immensely from a bye.
That's what made this win so important, and that's what makes the matchup against Seattle on Saturday even more important.
The Steelers could not block Aldon Smith, who now leads all rookies in sacks with 13. You can thank Jim Tomsula for winning his lone game as head coach for the selection of Aldon Smith. On draft day, most 49ers fans wanted Patrick Peterson, but he was snatched two spots ahead where the 49ers would have been picking had they lost Week 17 last year (end of mini-tangent).
Suffice to say, Aldon may be the dominant pass rusher that this defense needed to become the best in the NFC.
Before the 49ers beat the Steelers, there was a perception that good passing teams would be able to score on the 49ers defense.
But if Aldon can repeat this performance against the Packers (who just gave up three sacks to Tamba Hali) and/or the Saints in the playoffs, then maybe the 49ers DO indeed have a chance at winning it all.
It's hard for me to wrap my head around this idea. The 49ers could win the Super Bowl.
After all, they have the best turnover margin, the best field position differential, the best scoring defense and the coach of the year.
Stats to note:
The 49ers have won six straight home games, winning by a combined score of 164-43.
The Saints finished 5-3 on the road this year. Of their final 10 games, one was played on grass (22-17 W @ Tennessee).
David Akers now needs three field goals to break the single-season record.
Come Tuesday morning, there was a new excuse:
"If Big Ben was not injured, then the Steelers would've beat the 49ers."
So it goes as a 2011 49ers fan.
Whether the 49ers are getting the respect they deserve is an argument for another time, but nobody can take away their dominating 20-3 victory against Pittsburgh on Monday.
If San Francisco (11-3) wins its final two regular season games, it secures a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
The injury status of Joe Staley, Ted Ginn and Patrick Willis continues to be up in the air. In other words, the 49ers would benefit immensely from a bye.
That's what made this win so important, and that's what makes the matchup against Seattle on Saturday even more important.
The Steelers could not block Aldon Smith, who now leads all rookies in sacks with 13. You can thank Jim Tomsula for winning his lone game as head coach for the selection of Aldon Smith. On draft day, most 49ers fans wanted Patrick Peterson, but he was snatched two spots ahead where the 49ers would have been picking had they lost Week 17 last year (end of mini-tangent).
Suffice to say, Aldon may be the dominant pass rusher that this defense needed to become the best in the NFC.
Before the 49ers beat the Steelers, there was a perception that good passing teams would be able to score on the 49ers defense.
But if Aldon can repeat this performance against the Packers (who just gave up three sacks to Tamba Hali) and/or the Saints in the playoffs, then maybe the 49ers DO indeed have a chance at winning it all.
It's hard for me to wrap my head around this idea. The 49ers could win the Super Bowl.
After all, they have the best turnover margin, the best field position differential, the best scoring defense and the coach of the year.
Stats to note:
The 49ers have won six straight home games, winning by a combined score of 164-43.
The Saints finished 5-3 on the road this year. Of their final 10 games, one was played on grass (22-17 W @ Tennessee).
David Akers now needs three field goals to break the single-season record.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Postgame notes: Cardinals edge 49ers
Every team in the NFL (sans the Packers) has lost a game that they should've won. Even the good teams (sans the Packers again) have found a way to drop a game against an inferior opponent.
The Patriots lost to the 5-8 Bills. The Ravens lost to the Seahawks and Jaguars. The Saints lost to the Rams...
So first off, the 49ers were due for something like this to happen.
A few things we learned:
Lesson No. 1: Never take a win for granted.
Lesson No. 2: Backup quarterbacks can and will beat you if you give up big plays and don't tackle.
Lesson No. 3: Settling for field goals will cost you in the end.
So now that that's out of the way, let's try to explain what happened. On the Cardinals first TD, the Niners were not in the right position, allowing Early Doucet to score a 60-yard touchdown.
Over the course of a season, these things happen. I was willing to give the 49ers a pass for the blown coverage.
The Cardinals second TD was an amazing play by Larry Fitzgerald. He kicked Goldson in the air as he caught the ball at its highest point. Goldson was injured on the play, allowing Fitzgerald to walk into the end zone.
The last TD drive was set up by a Fitzgerald 50-yard catch and run in which he broke several tackles in the 49ers secondary. The Cardinals cashed in with a TD catch by Andre Roberts.
So the 49ers were in poor positions and didn't tackle well on the three big plays. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on what happens), the SF secondary will have a chance at redemption against the equally talented receiving corps of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But once again, as I type about the failures of the defense, I think to myself, the unit forced three turnovers and seven punts. All things considered, it was a decent performance.
The offense was atrocious. The early injury to Joe Staley didn't help, but excuses aside, the offense is not clicking. The Niners were 0-3 in the red zone, with the most frustrating sequence coming after Ted Ginn's 52-yard punt return to the Cardinals 4-yard.
The ugliest stat: 3 for 17 on third downs. Credit the Niners defense and special teams for great field position. Without it, the Niners easily could have been shut out in this game.
We all would have liked to see Frank Gore have more than 10 carries, especially when he was averaging more than seven yards a pop. Gore would've had a lot more carries if the Niners could have sustained more drives.
The Niners averaged just 3.7 yards per play, another awful stat. Five sacks contributed to this total.
Anyways, next up are the 10-3 Steelers. My early guess is that Ben Roethlisberger will play. He won't be 100 percent, but who is at this point? The Niners defense tends to play better at home, and they will have to be at their best against Big Ben if they want to get their 11th win.
Stats to note:
This was just the second time the 49ers have allowed three touchdowns in a game this season. The other time was against the Cowboys in Week 2.
David Akers needs five field goals to break Neil Rackers's all-time record of 40 field goals in one season.
The Patriots lost to the 5-8 Bills. The Ravens lost to the Seahawks and Jaguars. The Saints lost to the Rams...
So first off, the 49ers were due for something like this to happen.
A few things we learned:
Lesson No. 1: Never take a win for granted.
Lesson No. 2: Backup quarterbacks can and will beat you if you give up big plays and don't tackle.
Lesson No. 3: Settling for field goals will cost you in the end.
So now that that's out of the way, let's try to explain what happened. On the Cardinals first TD, the Niners were not in the right position, allowing Early Doucet to score a 60-yard touchdown.
Over the course of a season, these things happen. I was willing to give the 49ers a pass for the blown coverage.
The Cardinals second TD was an amazing play by Larry Fitzgerald. He kicked Goldson in the air as he caught the ball at its highest point. Goldson was injured on the play, allowing Fitzgerald to walk into the end zone.
The last TD drive was set up by a Fitzgerald 50-yard catch and run in which he broke several tackles in the 49ers secondary. The Cardinals cashed in with a TD catch by Andre Roberts.
So the 49ers were in poor positions and didn't tackle well on the three big plays. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on what happens), the SF secondary will have a chance at redemption against the equally talented receiving corps of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But once again, as I type about the failures of the defense, I think to myself, the unit forced three turnovers and seven punts. All things considered, it was a decent performance.
The offense was atrocious. The early injury to Joe Staley didn't help, but excuses aside, the offense is not clicking. The Niners were 0-3 in the red zone, with the most frustrating sequence coming after Ted Ginn's 52-yard punt return to the Cardinals 4-yard.
The ugliest stat: 3 for 17 on third downs. Credit the Niners defense and special teams for great field position. Without it, the Niners easily could have been shut out in this game.
We all would have liked to see Frank Gore have more than 10 carries, especially when he was averaging more than seven yards a pop. Gore would've had a lot more carries if the Niners could have sustained more drives.
The Niners averaged just 3.7 yards per play, another awful stat. Five sacks contributed to this total.
Anyways, next up are the 10-3 Steelers. My early guess is that Ben Roethlisberger will play. He won't be 100 percent, but who is at this point? The Niners defense tends to play better at home, and they will have to be at their best against Big Ben if they want to get their 11th win.
Stats to note:
This was just the second time the 49ers have allowed three touchdowns in a game this season. The other time was against the Cowboys in Week 2.
David Akers needs five field goals to break Neil Rackers's all-time record of 40 field goals in one season.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
49ers vs. Cardinals prediction
The 49ers dominated the Cardinals en route to a 23-7 win just three weeks ago. The rematch could prove to be a much closer game.
This time, Patrick Willis is not expected to play. Meanwhile, Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb is expected to play.
Kolb is by no means an elite quarterback, but he is by far the best quarterback on the Arizona roster. Kolb's 7.8 yards per attempt average is the best on the Cardinals and better than Alex Smith's 7.4 average.
Kolb doesn't have particularly great arm strength, but for whatever reason, he actually creates a bunch of big plays. Kolb has completed a pass of at least 47 yards in all but two games this year, including a screen pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling that led to a catch and run of 52 yards and a touchdown to beat the Cowboys in overtime a week ago. The only way the Cardinals have a chance to beat the 49ers is through big plays. So the first key is to LIMIT BIG PLAYS.
Will the loss of Patrick Willis hurt the 49ers run defense? Of course. How much? We'll find out. Most 49ers fans would say that San Francisco shut down Steven Jackson last week after Willis went down with an injury. This week, the Cardinals had time to game plan for the Willis-less Niners. Will the Cards find a way to expose Larry Grant? Will NaVorro Bowman play worse without his linebacking mate? The second key is for the 49ers to KEEP BEANIE UNDER 70 YARDS.
Frank Gore has rushed for 200 yards in his last four games. The 49ers have found a way to win three of them, but I believe if this trend continues, San Francisco will be in trouble. On the road, Alex Smith has had three mediocre performances in a row. He's going to need a running game to open the passing game. So the third key is for FRANK GORE AND CO. TO AVERAGE AT LEAST FOUR YARDS PER CARRY.
I see this game being a defensive affair. If the 49ers are inefficient in the red zone (like they've been all year), then Arizona will hang around. I think the 49ers disciplined defense will be just enough to get them their 11th win.
49ers 19 Cardinals 13
This time, Patrick Willis is not expected to play. Meanwhile, Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb is expected to play.
Kolb is by no means an elite quarterback, but he is by far the best quarterback on the Arizona roster. Kolb's 7.8 yards per attempt average is the best on the Cardinals and better than Alex Smith's 7.4 average.
Kolb doesn't have particularly great arm strength, but for whatever reason, he actually creates a bunch of big plays. Kolb has completed a pass of at least 47 yards in all but two games this year, including a screen pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling that led to a catch and run of 52 yards and a touchdown to beat the Cowboys in overtime a week ago. The only way the Cardinals have a chance to beat the 49ers is through big plays. So the first key is to LIMIT BIG PLAYS.
Will the loss of Patrick Willis hurt the 49ers run defense? Of course. How much? We'll find out. Most 49ers fans would say that San Francisco shut down Steven Jackson last week after Willis went down with an injury. This week, the Cardinals had time to game plan for the Willis-less Niners. Will the Cards find a way to expose Larry Grant? Will NaVorro Bowman play worse without his linebacking mate? The second key is for the 49ers to KEEP BEANIE UNDER 70 YARDS.
Frank Gore has rushed for 200 yards in his last four games. The 49ers have found a way to win three of them, but I believe if this trend continues, San Francisco will be in trouble. On the road, Alex Smith has had three mediocre performances in a row. He's going to need a running game to open the passing game. So the third key is for FRANK GORE AND CO. TO AVERAGE AT LEAST FOUR YARDS PER CARRY.
I see this game being a defensive affair. If the 49ers are inefficient in the red zone (like they've been all year), then Arizona will hang around. I think the 49ers disciplined defense will be just enough to get them their 11th win.
49ers 19 Cardinals 13
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Predicting the NFC playoff field
1. Green Bay Packers
Currently 12-0
Remaining schedule vs. Oak., @ KC, vs. Chi., vs. Det.
Projected finish 16-0
I'd be shocked if the Packers lost a regular season game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Currently 10-2
Remaining schedule @ Arz., vs. Pitt., @ Sea., @ Stl.
Projected finish 13-3
The 49ers will clinch the second seed with three more wins.
3. New Orleans Saints
Currently 9-3
Remaining schedule @ Ten., @ Min., vs. Atl., vs. Car.
Projected finish 12-4
New Orleans needs three more wins to clinch the NFC South.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule vs. NYG, @ Tampa, vs. Phi., @ NYG
Projected finish 10-6
Dallas gets the win this Sunday, essentially clinching the division.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Car., vs. Jack., @ NO, vs. Tampa
Projected finish 10-6
Falcons should be 9-7 at worst with this schedule. They currently hold the tiebreaker with every other contending Wild Card team.
6. Chicago Bears
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Den., Sea., @ GB, @ Min.
Projected finish 9-7
The last spot could go to a number of teams. Caleb Hanie has played terribly the last two weeks, but the Bears still control their own destiny and hold the tiebreaker over the Lions and Giants. The Lions (7-5) have lost five of seven and have the Raiders and Packers left on their schedule. The Giants (6-6) have lost four straight and have the Cowboys twice and the Jets left. It seems inevitable that the NFC's sixth seed will only have nine wins, so don't leave Seattle out of the equation. At 5-7, the Seahawks would need to win out, but with games against the Rams, Bears and Cardinals, I could see Seattle getting close. Their Week 16 matchup against the 49ers could prove problematic, but if San Francisco has nothing to play for, Seattle could pull the upset.
Currently 12-0
Remaining schedule vs. Oak., @ KC, vs. Chi., vs. Det.
Projected finish 16-0
I'd be shocked if the Packers lost a regular season game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Currently 10-2
Remaining schedule @ Arz., vs. Pitt., @ Sea., @ Stl.
Projected finish 13-3
The 49ers will clinch the second seed with three more wins.
3. New Orleans Saints
Currently 9-3
Remaining schedule @ Ten., @ Min., vs. Atl., vs. Car.
Projected finish 12-4
New Orleans needs three more wins to clinch the NFC South.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule vs. NYG, @ Tampa, vs. Phi., @ NYG
Projected finish 10-6
Dallas gets the win this Sunday, essentially clinching the division.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Car., vs. Jack., @ NO, vs. Tampa
Projected finish 10-6
Falcons should be 9-7 at worst with this schedule. They currently hold the tiebreaker with every other contending Wild Card team.
6. Chicago Bears
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Den., Sea., @ GB, @ Min.
Projected finish 9-7
The last spot could go to a number of teams. Caleb Hanie has played terribly the last two weeks, but the Bears still control their own destiny and hold the tiebreaker over the Lions and Giants. The Lions (7-5) have lost five of seven and have the Raiders and Packers left on their schedule. The Giants (6-6) have lost four straight and have the Cowboys twice and the Jets left. It seems inevitable that the NFC's sixth seed will only have nine wins, so don't leave Seattle out of the equation. At 5-7, the Seahawks would need to win out, but with games against the Rams, Bears and Cardinals, I could see Seattle getting close. Their Week 16 matchup against the 49ers could prove problematic, but if San Francisco has nothing to play for, Seattle could pull the upset.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Thoughts on Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow threw for more than 200 yards in the Broncos 35-32 victory against the Vikings.
His performance has changed the media's question from: "Does Tebow deserve credit for the Broncos win streak?" to "Should Tebow be Denver's franchise quarterback?"
My answer: yes and yes.
Many people are giving the Broncos defense all the credit for the win streak. The unit has been outstanding, to be sure. But what's lost is Tebow's amazing ability to avoid turnovers.
I really don't care how many times he throws the ball as long as he doesn't turn it over and puts together a few scoring drives. In his seven starts, he has just three turnovers. He has thrown the ball 158 times with just one interception. And the offense has scored 15 touchdowns in seven games, a good-enough number.
Kyle Orton was 1-4 as a starter. He had nine turnovers, including seven interceptions, in five games. He had the same supporting cast, yet he constantly put his defense in bad spots. Tebow doesn't do that, and now everybody sees that the Broncos have a great defense.
Just as the play of Alex Smith has complemented the 49ers defense, Tebow's play has had the same effect.
And he's winning, which is all that matters.
Will Tebow get exposed against a great defense? Will his accuracy issues cost the Broncos down the stretch?
My answer: yes and yes.
But Tebow is the Broncos best option right now and he absolutely deserves credit for the win streak and the position of starting quarterback in Denver.
His performance has changed the media's question from: "Does Tebow deserve credit for the Broncos win streak?" to "Should Tebow be Denver's franchise quarterback?"
My answer: yes and yes.
Many people are giving the Broncos defense all the credit for the win streak. The unit has been outstanding, to be sure. But what's lost is Tebow's amazing ability to avoid turnovers.
I really don't care how many times he throws the ball as long as he doesn't turn it over and puts together a few scoring drives. In his seven starts, he has just three turnovers. He has thrown the ball 158 times with just one interception. And the offense has scored 15 touchdowns in seven games, a good-enough number.
Kyle Orton was 1-4 as a starter. He had nine turnovers, including seven interceptions, in five games. He had the same supporting cast, yet he constantly put his defense in bad spots. Tebow doesn't do that, and now everybody sees that the Broncos have a great defense.
Just as the play of Alex Smith has complemented the 49ers defense, Tebow's play has had the same effect.
And he's winning, which is all that matters.
Will Tebow get exposed against a great defense? Will his accuracy issues cost the Broncos down the stretch?
My answer: yes and yes.
But Tebow is the Broncos best option right now and he absolutely deserves credit for the win streak and the position of starting quarterback in Denver.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Postgame notes: 49ers clinch NFC West title
When Patrick Willis left Sunday's game against the Rams with a hamstring injury in the first quarter, there was reason to believe the 49ers defense would miss a beat.
Instead, the rhythm continued.
The 49ers posted their first shutout in two years, beating the Rams 26-0 to clinch the NFC West division title.
Alex Smith was 17 of 23 with 274 yards and two touchdowns. Smith posted a 142.3 QB Rating, his best single-game rating in his career.
The 49ers continued their trend of letting their opponent hang around. Despite three trips to the red zone, all San Francisco could muster were three first-half field goals.
The Niners finally broke through when Smith hit Michael Crabtree for a 52-yard touchdown in the third quarter.
I don't mean to be a downer, but the 49ers do have a few negatives to take from this game. Not being able to score from inside the 1-yard line is a huge issue moving forward. Also, the 49ers inability to pound the rock with Frank Gore is becoming a trend.
Gore had 73 yards on 21 carries, a rather quiet performance considering the Rams came into the game with worst-ranked run defense.
But one thing's for sure -- this defense is outstanding, and the Niners will be in every game as long as they limit their turnovers.
If the Saints and 49ers finished at 13-3, San Francisco would get the second seed in the NFC Playoffs. The 49ers have already defeated three of its remaining opponents by a combined scored of 82-24, but keep in mind that each of those games were in San Francisco.
Stats to note:
The 49ers have allowed one touchdown in the first half of home games this year (vs. Dallas with 1:48 to go in the half).
Steven Jackson rushed for 19 yards, his lowest total since the 2007 season.
The 49ers have outscored their opponents 144-40 in their last five home games.
San Francisco is 14-3 in its last 17 division games (6-1 vs. Stl, 5-0 vs. Arz, 3-2 vs. Sea) and has won its last 10 division home games
Instead, the rhythm continued.
The 49ers posted their first shutout in two years, beating the Rams 26-0 to clinch the NFC West division title.
Alex Smith was 17 of 23 with 274 yards and two touchdowns. Smith posted a 142.3 QB Rating, his best single-game rating in his career.
The 49ers continued their trend of letting their opponent hang around. Despite three trips to the red zone, all San Francisco could muster were three first-half field goals.
The Niners finally broke through when Smith hit Michael Crabtree for a 52-yard touchdown in the third quarter.
I don't mean to be a downer, but the 49ers do have a few negatives to take from this game. Not being able to score from inside the 1-yard line is a huge issue moving forward. Also, the 49ers inability to pound the rock with Frank Gore is becoming a trend.
Gore had 73 yards on 21 carries, a rather quiet performance considering the Rams came into the game with worst-ranked run defense.
But one thing's for sure -- this defense is outstanding, and the Niners will be in every game as long as they limit their turnovers.
If the Saints and 49ers finished at 13-3, San Francisco would get the second seed in the NFC Playoffs. The 49ers have already defeated three of its remaining opponents by a combined scored of 82-24, but keep in mind that each of those games were in San Francisco.
Stats to note:
The 49ers have allowed one touchdown in the first half of home games this year (vs. Dallas with 1:48 to go in the half).
Steven Jackson rushed for 19 yards, his lowest total since the 2007 season.
The 49ers have outscored their opponents 144-40 in their last five home games.
San Francisco is 14-3 in its last 17 division games (6-1 vs. Stl, 5-0 vs. Arz, 3-2 vs. Sea) and has won its last 10 division home games
Thursday, December 1, 2011
49ers vs. Rams prediction
What did the Rams do to deserve this?
Injuries, injuries and more injuries have been the story of the 2011 St. Louis Rams. Sam Bradford, both offensive tackles and practically the entire secondary have been bit by the injury bug this year.
Not surprisingly, the Rams are 2-9 to show for it.
Despite all the injuries, two players have remained a constant for St. Louis -- Steven Jackson and Chris Long, two players the 49ers have struggled to contain in the past.
Jackson is an elite back capable of taking over a game, just ask the Saints. Jackson had 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 31-21 win against New Orleans. The 49ers have not allowed a player to rush for more than 75 yards against them this season. So the first key to the game will be SLOW DOWN STEVEN.
The 49ers offense needs a rebound performance, and it starts with the offensive line. Chris Long will be a handful (if he plays, he's questionable for Sunday), but the 49ers must keep him from sacking Alex Smith. The 49ers run game has also been stuck in mud for the last few weeks, and the Rams have the league's worst run defense in yards per game allowed at 159. So the OFFENSIVE LINE MUST WIN THE TRENCHES.
Lastly, this game features an interesting personal battle between 2011 first-round draft picks. The 49ers could have selected pass rusher Robert Quinn with the No. 7 pick but instead shocked many draft gurus and took Aldon Smith instead. Quinn was taken by the Rams at No. 12, and now he and Smith are piling up sacks for their respective teams. The 49ers had no sacks against the Ravens last week, and it may be up to the rookie to ignite the pass rush. So the third key is for ALDON TO OUTSHINE HIS COUNTERPART.
Prediction:
I believe the 49ers have the edge in all three of my keys to the game. The Rams could stay in the game if they stop the run and get pressure on Alex Smith. But the 49ers should be able to win the field position battle, get an early lead, and tee off on whomever starts at quarterback for the Rams. The 49ers need this win to clinch the division, which should be the perfect incentive for a bounce back performance.
49ers 30 Rams 10
Injuries, injuries and more injuries have been the story of the 2011 St. Louis Rams. Sam Bradford, both offensive tackles and practically the entire secondary have been bit by the injury bug this year.
Not surprisingly, the Rams are 2-9 to show for it.
Despite all the injuries, two players have remained a constant for St. Louis -- Steven Jackson and Chris Long, two players the 49ers have struggled to contain in the past.
Jackson is an elite back capable of taking over a game, just ask the Saints. Jackson had 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 31-21 win against New Orleans. The 49ers have not allowed a player to rush for more than 75 yards against them this season. So the first key to the game will be SLOW DOWN STEVEN.
The 49ers offense needs a rebound performance, and it starts with the offensive line. Chris Long will be a handful (if he plays, he's questionable for Sunday), but the 49ers must keep him from sacking Alex Smith. The 49ers run game has also been stuck in mud for the last few weeks, and the Rams have the league's worst run defense in yards per game allowed at 159. So the OFFENSIVE LINE MUST WIN THE TRENCHES.
Lastly, this game features an interesting personal battle between 2011 first-round draft picks. The 49ers could have selected pass rusher Robert Quinn with the No. 7 pick but instead shocked many draft gurus and took Aldon Smith instead. Quinn was taken by the Rams at No. 12, and now he and Smith are piling up sacks for their respective teams. The 49ers had no sacks against the Ravens last week, and it may be up to the rookie to ignite the pass rush. So the third key is for ALDON TO OUTSHINE HIS COUNTERPART.
Prediction:
I believe the 49ers have the edge in all three of my keys to the game. The Rams could stay in the game if they stop the run and get pressure on Alex Smith. But the 49ers should be able to win the field position battle, get an early lead, and tee off on whomever starts at quarterback for the Rams. The 49ers need this win to clinch the division, which should be the perfect incentive for a bounce back performance.
49ers 30 Rams 10
One man's take on the Penn State sex-abuse scandal
You are a chef.
In fact, you are the chef of one of the best restaurants in the U.S., and your cooking is the main attraction.
One day, a new server tells you that a friend of yours who worked at the restaurant three years ago was doing something that looked like sexual assault after hours in the restaurant the night before.
So you decide to tell your boss about the allegation.
Your boss investigates the situation and tells the man who was accused to never come back to the restaurant again.
Time passes by and you see the accused man in another area of town. Obviously, he has not been arrested. Suddenly you are struck with two options. You can either pretend you never saw him or you can make sure the police were informed of the recent allegation against him.
Being the extremely busy chef you are, you decide to stay out of it, hoping to never hear of it again.
Nine years later, you read a grand jury report with a laundry list of sexual-abuse allegations against your old friend. You feel terrible. You know you should have done more to make sure the police were informed nine years ago.
Your boss is fired, and suddenly the assistant manager fires you too. For the rest of your life, you will be remembered as an enabler of sexual abuse and a disgrace to society.
You, the chef, were negligent. But before we play the moral game and decide what you, the reader, would have done in this situation, let’s face the fact that we are negligent all the time.
Within the next few months, a girl who attends San Jose State University will get raped. We all know this, and if you’re anything like me, you hate thinking about it.
There are plenty of things we could do to limit the amounts of sexual assault on and near our campus.
We could have watchdogs at parties who specifically keep an eye out for potential rape victims.
We could have a rule on campus that boys and girls can not be in the same room together past a certain time at night.
I realize that these suggestions may sound ridiculous, but shouldn’t we do anything in our power to limit the potential of rape at college?
Instead we do nothing. Essentially, we are accepting that college girls get raped, negligent to the issue.
Every time we get in a car, we accept that tens of thousands of people will get killed in auto accidents. Yet we drive anyway.
We are all cowards to some extent, not so much different than Chef Paterno.
So the next time you are downgrading someone, I want you to take a long look in the mirror and ask yourself this question: Do you want society to take you down before you have the chance to defend yourself?
In fact, you are the chef of one of the best restaurants in the U.S., and your cooking is the main attraction.
One day, a new server tells you that a friend of yours who worked at the restaurant three years ago was doing something that looked like sexual assault after hours in the restaurant the night before.
So you decide to tell your boss about the allegation.
Your boss investigates the situation and tells the man who was accused to never come back to the restaurant again.
Time passes by and you see the accused man in another area of town. Obviously, he has not been arrested. Suddenly you are struck with two options. You can either pretend you never saw him or you can make sure the police were informed of the recent allegation against him.
Being the extremely busy chef you are, you decide to stay out of it, hoping to never hear of it again.
Nine years later, you read a grand jury report with a laundry list of sexual-abuse allegations against your old friend. You feel terrible. You know you should have done more to make sure the police were informed nine years ago.
Your boss is fired, and suddenly the assistant manager fires you too. For the rest of your life, you will be remembered as an enabler of sexual abuse and a disgrace to society.
You, the chef, were negligent. But before we play the moral game and decide what you, the reader, would have done in this situation, let’s face the fact that we are negligent all the time.
Within the next few months, a girl who attends San Jose State University will get raped. We all know this, and if you’re anything like me, you hate thinking about it.
There are plenty of things we could do to limit the amounts of sexual assault on and near our campus.
We could have watchdogs at parties who specifically keep an eye out for potential rape victims.
We could have a rule on campus that boys and girls can not be in the same room together past a certain time at night.
I realize that these suggestions may sound ridiculous, but shouldn’t we do anything in our power to limit the potential of rape at college?
Instead we do nothing. Essentially, we are accepting that college girls get raped, negligent to the issue.
Every time we get in a car, we accept that tens of thousands of people will get killed in auto accidents. Yet we drive anyway.
We are all cowards to some extent, not so much different than Chef Paterno.
So the next time you are downgrading someone, I want you to take a long look in the mirror and ask yourself this question: Do you want society to take you down before you have the chance to defend yourself?
Monday, November 28, 2011
Predicting the playoff field
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers 16-0
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 12-4
4. Dallas Cowboys 11-5
5. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
6. Chicago Bears 10-6
- I believe the Packers are going to go undefeated in the regular season. But if they lose a game before Week 17, I wouldn't be surprised if the Detroit Lions handed them their second loss in the last week of the season. So if you are a Lions fan, root against the Packers just so they will take it easy on you in Week 17.
- The Atlanta Falcons are playing well and have a friendly schedule. They also have a head to head victory against the Lions, giving them the edge if there is a tie for the last spot.
- Caleb Hanie was awful in his first game as starting quarterback of the Bears. Yet with games remaining against the Chiefs, Seahawks and Vikings, the Bears should be able to win at least three more games.
- This means I have the Lions out, but I could easily see them getting in if they beat a shorthanded Packers team in Week 17.
- The only other team worthy of mention is the New York Giants. With their brutal schedule, winning more than 9 seems like too much to ask.
AFC
1. Baltimore Ravens 13-3
2. New England Patriots 13-3
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Oakland Raiders 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
- It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the AFC's three best teams (Ravens, Patriots, Steelers) win out. The Ravens have been the shakiest road team and have three road games left, but with home-field advantage for the playoffs at stake, I think the Ravens will take care of business. The Patriots and Steelers seem like locks for at least 12 wins.
- Who had the Raiders and Broncos as the top two AFC West contenders? Both teams are inconsistent. I think the Raiders are a slightly better team at this point so I'll give them the nod.
- The last spot goes to the Bengals. If they can beat the Rams and Cardinals, they'd probably need just one more win to make the playoffs. But you never know how a rookie quarterback will respond to the pressure of December football. Still, I'll take them for now, but remember that the Broncos have the head to head tiebreaker against them.
- The Titans would likely have to win out to overtake the Texans in the AFC South or the Bengals for the last spot in the rankings. I don't think they'll even get close, especially with the Saints still on their schedule.
- This leaves the Jets, who would have the tiebreaker over nobody. They would likely have to win out to make the playoffs. Fortunately, they only have one game left against a team with an over .500 record (Giants). I say they find a way to lose one game and miss out on the playoffs.
1. Green Bay Packers 16-0
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 12-4
4. Dallas Cowboys 11-5
5. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
6. Chicago Bears 10-6
- I believe the Packers are going to go undefeated in the regular season. But if they lose a game before Week 17, I wouldn't be surprised if the Detroit Lions handed them their second loss in the last week of the season. So if you are a Lions fan, root against the Packers just so they will take it easy on you in Week 17.
- The Atlanta Falcons are playing well and have a friendly schedule. They also have a head to head victory against the Lions, giving them the edge if there is a tie for the last spot.
- Caleb Hanie was awful in his first game as starting quarterback of the Bears. Yet with games remaining against the Chiefs, Seahawks and Vikings, the Bears should be able to win at least three more games.
- This means I have the Lions out, but I could easily see them getting in if they beat a shorthanded Packers team in Week 17.
- The only other team worthy of mention is the New York Giants. With their brutal schedule, winning more than 9 seems like too much to ask.
AFC
1. Baltimore Ravens 13-3
2. New England Patriots 13-3
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Oakland Raiders 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
- It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the AFC's three best teams (Ravens, Patriots, Steelers) win out. The Ravens have been the shakiest road team and have three road games left, but with home-field advantage for the playoffs at stake, I think the Ravens will take care of business. The Patriots and Steelers seem like locks for at least 12 wins.
- Who had the Raiders and Broncos as the top two AFC West contenders? Both teams are inconsistent. I think the Raiders are a slightly better team at this point so I'll give them the nod.
- The last spot goes to the Bengals. If they can beat the Rams and Cardinals, they'd probably need just one more win to make the playoffs. But you never know how a rookie quarterback will respond to the pressure of December football. Still, I'll take them for now, but remember that the Broncos have the head to head tiebreaker against them.
- The Titans would likely have to win out to overtake the Texans in the AFC South or the Bengals for the last spot in the rankings. I don't think they'll even get close, especially with the Saints still on their schedule.
- This leaves the Jets, who would have the tiebreaker over nobody. They would likely have to win out to make the playoffs. Fortunately, they only have one game left against a team with an over .500 record (Giants). I say they find a way to lose one game and miss out on the playoffs.
Friday, November 25, 2011
NFL Power Rankings post-Thanksgiving
Tier 1 (Super Bowl favorites)
1. Green Bay Packers 11-0
Aaron Rodgers gets all the talk, and he deserves most of it, but what about the Packers defense. Shutting out the Lions for three quarters is extraordinary.
2. Baltimore Ravens 8-3
The Ravens have earned this spot in the rankings because they 4-0 against serious playoff contenders this season.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3
Only the Steelers and the teams ranked ahead of them boast an above average quarterback, a brutal pass rush and playmaking secondary.
Tier 2 (Contenders)
4. New England Patriots 7-3
Two myths about the Pats are they’re defense stinks and their run game is nonexistent. The Patriots only allow 20.3 points per game, ranking 10th in the NFL. They also rush for 111 yards per game.
5. Dallas Cowboys 7-4
Demarco Murray has brought balance to the Cowboys offense, a scary proposition for opposing defenses.
6. San Francisco 49ers 9-2
No question about it -- the 49ers were exposed by the Ravens. Clearly the 49ers defense will have to force turnovers to assist the offense in big games.
7. New Orleans Saints 7-3
A team led by Drew Brees is a threat to beat any NFL team. But the Saints may not have enough defense to compete with Packers in the NFC playoffs.
Tier 3 (Early playoff exit likely)
8. Atlanta Falcons 6-4
With the Lions having a brutal schedule to close the season and the injury to Jay Cutler, the Falcons have a great opportunity to claim one of the two Wild Card spots in the NFC.
9. Houston Texans 7-3
Matt Leinart is in a great position to succeed, (underrated defense, great running game, the return of Andre Johnson) and I think he will easily lead the Texans to the playoffs.
10. Cincinnati Bengals 6-4
Andy Dalton threw for 373 yards against the Ravens. That’s very impressive. As long as the Bengals can take care of business against inferior teams, they will make the playoffs.
11. Chicago Bears 7-3
The Bears offensive line is atrocious and you can’t expect an inexperienced quarterback to succeed in this situation. But the Bears still can run it with Matt Forte and play stifling defense.
Tier 4 (Average teams that don‘t belong in the playoffs)
12. Detroit Lions 7-4
Just when you thought the Lions established a running game, Kevin Smith gets hurt. It would be devastating if Ndamukong Suh was suspended for next week’s clash against the Saints.
13. Oakland Raiders 6-4
I suspect the Raiders offense will carry them into the playoffs. But if the defense doesn’t improve, they will likely be one and done.
14. New York Giants 6-4
The disappointing trend for the Giants is there inability to run the ball. This leads to Eli Manning interceptions and Giants losses.
15. New York Jets 5-5
Mark Sanchez sub-80 QB rating tells the story. If the Jets had better quarterback play, they’d be Super Bowl contenders.
16. Philadelphia Eagles 4-6
A loss and their season is over. But before you say they are rated too high, honestly ask if you think the Eagles are worse than any of the teams lower on this list.
Tier 5 (The rest)
17. San Diego Chargers 4-6
18. Tennessee Titans 5-5
19. Denver Broncos 5-5
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6
21. Miami Dolphins 3-8
22. Seattle Seahawks 4-6
23. Buffalo Bills 5-5
24. Washington Redskins 3-7
25. Carolina Panthers 2-8
26. Kansas City Chiefs 4-6
27. Cleveland Browns 4-6
28. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7
29. Minnesota Vikings 2-8
30. Arizona Cardinals 3-7
31. St. Louis Rams 2-8
32. Indianapolis Colts 0-10
1. Green Bay Packers 11-0
Aaron Rodgers gets all the talk, and he deserves most of it, but what about the Packers defense. Shutting out the Lions for three quarters is extraordinary.
2. Baltimore Ravens 8-3
The Ravens have earned this spot in the rankings because they 4-0 against serious playoff contenders this season.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3
Only the Steelers and the teams ranked ahead of them boast an above average quarterback, a brutal pass rush and playmaking secondary.
Tier 2 (Contenders)
4. New England Patriots 7-3
Two myths about the Pats are they’re defense stinks and their run game is nonexistent. The Patriots only allow 20.3 points per game, ranking 10th in the NFL. They also rush for 111 yards per game.
5. Dallas Cowboys 7-4
Demarco Murray has brought balance to the Cowboys offense, a scary proposition for opposing defenses.
6. San Francisco 49ers 9-2
No question about it -- the 49ers were exposed by the Ravens. Clearly the 49ers defense will have to force turnovers to assist the offense in big games.
7. New Orleans Saints 7-3
A team led by Drew Brees is a threat to beat any NFL team. But the Saints may not have enough defense to compete with Packers in the NFC playoffs.
Tier 3 (Early playoff exit likely)
8. Atlanta Falcons 6-4
With the Lions having a brutal schedule to close the season and the injury to Jay Cutler, the Falcons have a great opportunity to claim one of the two Wild Card spots in the NFC.
9. Houston Texans 7-3
Matt Leinart is in a great position to succeed, (underrated defense, great running game, the return of Andre Johnson) and I think he will easily lead the Texans to the playoffs.
10. Cincinnati Bengals 6-4
Andy Dalton threw for 373 yards against the Ravens. That’s very impressive. As long as the Bengals can take care of business against inferior teams, they will make the playoffs.
11. Chicago Bears 7-3
The Bears offensive line is atrocious and you can’t expect an inexperienced quarterback to succeed in this situation. But the Bears still can run it with Matt Forte and play stifling defense.
Tier 4 (Average teams that don‘t belong in the playoffs)
12. Detroit Lions 7-4
Just when you thought the Lions established a running game, Kevin Smith gets hurt. It would be devastating if Ndamukong Suh was suspended for next week’s clash against the Saints.
13. Oakland Raiders 6-4
I suspect the Raiders offense will carry them into the playoffs. But if the defense doesn’t improve, they will likely be one and done.
14. New York Giants 6-4
The disappointing trend for the Giants is there inability to run the ball. This leads to Eli Manning interceptions and Giants losses.
15. New York Jets 5-5
Mark Sanchez sub-80 QB rating tells the story. If the Jets had better quarterback play, they’d be Super Bowl contenders.
16. Philadelphia Eagles 4-6
A loss and their season is over. But before you say they are rated too high, honestly ask if you think the Eagles are worse than any of the teams lower on this list.
Tier 5 (The rest)
17. San Diego Chargers 4-6
18. Tennessee Titans 5-5
19. Denver Broncos 5-5
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6
21. Miami Dolphins 3-8
22. Seattle Seahawks 4-6
23. Buffalo Bills 5-5
24. Washington Redskins 3-7
25. Carolina Panthers 2-8
26. Kansas City Chiefs 4-6
27. Cleveland Browns 4-6
28. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7
29. Minnesota Vikings 2-8
30. Arizona Cardinals 3-7
31. St. Louis Rams 2-8
32. Indianapolis Colts 0-10
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Postgame notes: Ravens blitz 49ers
The 49ers offense was downright abysmal against the Ravens. The ineffective pass protection by the offensive line was the main issue as the Ravens tied a franchise record with nine sacks.
Defensively, the 49ers played okay. But anytime you play the Ravens, a big key to the game is to make Joe Flacco uncomfortable. He had too much time in the pocket, particularly in the second half, as he picked apart the 49ers secondary at the tune of four consecutive third-down conversions in the Ravens go-ahead touchdown drive.
The 49ers lost the turnover battle for just the second time this year (the other time was against the Detroit Lions, an SF 25-19 victory).
There aren't many positives to be taken from this game, other than the fact that the 49ers were due for a butt-kicking and got it at the right time.
Yeah I said it. The 49ers needed a butt-kicking in the worst way. Every NFL team since the merger, sans the 1972 Miami Dolphins, has lost at least one game.
Losing makes you hungrier. And the 49ers needed it.
Over the last several weeks, the 49ers have struggled to put away inferior opponents. In all honesty, the 49ers should have beat the Arizona Cardinals by 40, but silly offensive mistakes allowed Arizona to stay in the game until the end of the third quarter.
But the 49ers were winning, and it's hard to berate a winner.
Now the 49ers have five games to get these problems fixed. Fortunately, they also have one more Super Bowl contending team left on the schedule as a GPS game for the playoffs. That game, a Monday Night showdown with the defending Super Bowl runner-up Steelers, will give the 49ers one last chance to show their true colors.
San Francisco's defense needs to figure out a way to get more pressure on the quarterback. The 49ers are becoming a bit too predictable in their nickel package. The Ravens were able to block San Francisco's four-man rush effectively. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio didn't dial up a lot of blitzes, and Flacco was able to make plays down the field in the second half.
But enough about the defense, which in its defense only allowed 16 points and completely shut down premier running back Ray Rice.
The offense needs a tune-up in every way. First off, the rushing attack was nonexistent. This has been an issue of late, and if the 49ers need to spread the field more and pass to set up the run, so be it. But the 49ers can't expect to win games when Frank Gore has 39 rushing yards.
Secondly, San Francisco needs to work on its quick-hitting plays. Chances are the 49ers will not be able to attack down the field against playoff defenses, especially ones with great pass rushers (i.e. Detroit, Green Bay, Dallas). In reality, the 49ers have been effectively passing the ball all year, and you have to give the Ravens credit for disrupting all facets of the 49ers game. Still, you would have liked to have seen more slants and quick outs or even screen passes by San Francisco.
At the end of the day, the 49ers (9-2) are in total command in the NFC West and the race for the NFC's second seed in the playoffs. This was the toughest game on the schedule (Joe Flacco is now 16-1 in his last 17 home games) and the 49ers need to move on and try to improve in their last five games.
Stats to note:
This was the 49ers first loss against the spread. They're now 9-1-1 this year.
This was the first time Alex Smith has posted a negative touchdown to interception ratio since a Dec. 16 loss to the Chargers last year.
The 49ers longest run in their last three games is 14 yards.
If the 49ers and Saints both finished 13-3, the 49ers would own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record. If the 49ers and Cowboys finished with the same record, the Cowboys would get the higher seed because of their head to head win (and the Niners over the Giants for the same reason).
Defensively, the 49ers played okay. But anytime you play the Ravens, a big key to the game is to make Joe Flacco uncomfortable. He had too much time in the pocket, particularly in the second half, as he picked apart the 49ers secondary at the tune of four consecutive third-down conversions in the Ravens go-ahead touchdown drive.
The 49ers lost the turnover battle for just the second time this year (the other time was against the Detroit Lions, an SF 25-19 victory).
There aren't many positives to be taken from this game, other than the fact that the 49ers were due for a butt-kicking and got it at the right time.
Yeah I said it. The 49ers needed a butt-kicking in the worst way. Every NFL team since the merger, sans the 1972 Miami Dolphins, has lost at least one game.
Losing makes you hungrier. And the 49ers needed it.
Over the last several weeks, the 49ers have struggled to put away inferior opponents. In all honesty, the 49ers should have beat the Arizona Cardinals by 40, but silly offensive mistakes allowed Arizona to stay in the game until the end of the third quarter.
But the 49ers were winning, and it's hard to berate a winner.
Now the 49ers have five games to get these problems fixed. Fortunately, they also have one more Super Bowl contending team left on the schedule as a GPS game for the playoffs. That game, a Monday Night showdown with the defending Super Bowl runner-up Steelers, will give the 49ers one last chance to show their true colors.
San Francisco's defense needs to figure out a way to get more pressure on the quarterback. The 49ers are becoming a bit too predictable in their nickel package. The Ravens were able to block San Francisco's four-man rush effectively. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio didn't dial up a lot of blitzes, and Flacco was able to make plays down the field in the second half.
But enough about the defense, which in its defense only allowed 16 points and completely shut down premier running back Ray Rice.
The offense needs a tune-up in every way. First off, the rushing attack was nonexistent. This has been an issue of late, and if the 49ers need to spread the field more and pass to set up the run, so be it. But the 49ers can't expect to win games when Frank Gore has 39 rushing yards.
Secondly, San Francisco needs to work on its quick-hitting plays. Chances are the 49ers will not be able to attack down the field against playoff defenses, especially ones with great pass rushers (i.e. Detroit, Green Bay, Dallas). In reality, the 49ers have been effectively passing the ball all year, and you have to give the Ravens credit for disrupting all facets of the 49ers game. Still, you would have liked to have seen more slants and quick outs or even screen passes by San Francisco.
At the end of the day, the 49ers (9-2) are in total command in the NFC West and the race for the NFC's second seed in the playoffs. This was the toughest game on the schedule (Joe Flacco is now 16-1 in his last 17 home games) and the 49ers need to move on and try to improve in their last five games.
Stats to note:
This was the 49ers first loss against the spread. They're now 9-1-1 this year.
This was the first time Alex Smith has posted a negative touchdown to interception ratio since a Dec. 16 loss to the Chargers last year.
The 49ers longest run in their last three games is 14 yards.
If the 49ers and Saints both finished 13-3, the 49ers would own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record. If the 49ers and Cowboys finished with the same record, the Cowboys would get the higher seed because of their head to head win (and the Niners over the Giants for the same reason).
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
HarBowl prediction
Two great defenses. Two imperfect quarterbacks. Two great teams.
That’s what you’re going to get when the San Francisco 49ers (9-1) and Baltimore Ravens (7-3) square off in Baltimore on Thursday for the first edition of the HarBowl.
Keys to the game:
The best way to beat the Ravens is to get a lead on them early in the game and make them one-dimensional. The Seahawks, Titans and Jaguars (three unimpressive teams if you ask me) were all able to beat the Ravens using this formula. Clearly this is easier said than done, as the Ravens have dominated the Jets and Texans. They’ve beat the Steelers twice, once by 3 and once by 28.
So first key to this game has to be for the 49ers to SCORE FIRST.
Secondly, when the Ravens have fallen behind, they’ve aired it out with Joe Flacco. Inconsistency has defined his career, yet it would be foolish to assume he is incapable of torching the 49ers secondary. Flacco led the Ravens back from 21 points down to beat the Cardinals. Even more impressive, he led game-winning touchdown drive in Pittsburgh to beat the Steelers by 3. The common denominator in all these games was the success of Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin.
So the 49ers secondary CANNOT GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY.
Lastly, the 49ers need to score touchdowns in the red zone. Against Arizona, the 49ers settled for six field goal attempts before they reached the end zone. This can’t happen against the Ravens. I understand that Alex Smith’s goal is to prevent turnovers, and his quality decision-making is the biggest reason why the 49ers are 9-1. But at some point in this game, Smith is going to have to throw the ball into man coverage and trust his receiver to make a play.
In other words, Smith must play AGGRESSIVE IN THE RED ZONE.
Prediction:
The Ravens have got up for every big game they’ve played this year. Crowd noise and a vicious pass rush should keep the 49ers offense in check early in the game, and when the Ravens play from ahead they're very dangerous. I expect the 49ers to absorb some early blows and stay in the game, but ultimately Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense will hold on late in the game to beat the 49ers.
Ravens 16 49ers 13
That’s what you’re going to get when the San Francisco 49ers (9-1) and Baltimore Ravens (7-3) square off in Baltimore on Thursday for the first edition of the HarBowl.
Keys to the game:
The best way to beat the Ravens is to get a lead on them early in the game and make them one-dimensional. The Seahawks, Titans and Jaguars (three unimpressive teams if you ask me) were all able to beat the Ravens using this formula. Clearly this is easier said than done, as the Ravens have dominated the Jets and Texans. They’ve beat the Steelers twice, once by 3 and once by 28.
So first key to this game has to be for the 49ers to SCORE FIRST.
Secondly, when the Ravens have fallen behind, they’ve aired it out with Joe Flacco. Inconsistency has defined his career, yet it would be foolish to assume he is incapable of torching the 49ers secondary. Flacco led the Ravens back from 21 points down to beat the Cardinals. Even more impressive, he led game-winning touchdown drive in Pittsburgh to beat the Steelers by 3. The common denominator in all these games was the success of Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin.
So the 49ers secondary CANNOT GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY.
Lastly, the 49ers need to score touchdowns in the red zone. Against Arizona, the 49ers settled for six field goal attempts before they reached the end zone. This can’t happen against the Ravens. I understand that Alex Smith’s goal is to prevent turnovers, and his quality decision-making is the biggest reason why the 49ers are 9-1. But at some point in this game, Smith is going to have to throw the ball into man coverage and trust his receiver to make a play.
In other words, Smith must play AGGRESSIVE IN THE RED ZONE.
Prediction:
The Ravens have got up for every big game they’ve played this year. Crowd noise and a vicious pass rush should keep the 49ers offense in check early in the game, and when the Ravens play from ahead they're very dangerous. I expect the 49ers to absorb some early blows and stay in the game, but ultimately Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense will hold on late in the game to beat the 49ers.
Ravens 16 49ers 13
49ers predictions page
Below are my 49ers predictions this season. So far I am 5-5 and I'm 6-3-1 against the spread. As you can see, it took me a while to warm up the the 49ers. But now it's hard to deny that they are one of the elite teams in the NFL.
Week 1 49ers 20 Seahawks 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 33 Seahawks 17
http://bit.ly/vV7xh0
Week 2: 49ers 24 Cowboys 23
ACTUAL: Cowboys 27 49ers 24
http://bit.ly/qdThr5
Week 3: Bengals 19 49ers 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 13 Bengals 8
http://bit.ly/n4iJAY
Week 4: Eagles 30 49ers 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 24 Eagles 23
http://bit.ly/q9Gjhk
Week 5: Bucs 23 49ers 20
ACTUAL: 49ers 48 Bucs 3
http://bit.ly/nvAj8X
Week 6: Lions 24 49ers 23
ACTUAL: 49ers 25 Lions 19
http://bit.ly/oFPvKE
Week 8: 49ers 27 Browns 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 20 Browns 10
http://bit.ly/uEXLZ3
Week 9: 49ers 20 Redskins 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 19 Redskins 11
(Stopped posting to Yahoo Contributor Network)
Week 10: 49ers 20 Giants 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 27 Giants 20
Week 11: 49ers 26 Cardinals 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 23 Cardinals 7
Week 12:
Week 1 49ers 20 Seahawks 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 33 Seahawks 17
http://bit.ly/vV7xh0
Week 2: 49ers 24 Cowboys 23
ACTUAL: Cowboys 27 49ers 24
http://bit.ly/qdThr5
Week 3: Bengals 19 49ers 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 13 Bengals 8
http://bit.ly/n4iJAY
Week 4: Eagles 30 49ers 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 24 Eagles 23
http://bit.ly/q9Gjhk
Week 5: Bucs 23 49ers 20
ACTUAL: 49ers 48 Bucs 3
http://bit.ly/nvAj8X
Week 6: Lions 24 49ers 23
ACTUAL: 49ers 25 Lions 19
http://bit.ly/oFPvKE
Week 8: 49ers 27 Browns 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 20 Browns 10
http://bit.ly/uEXLZ3
Week 9: 49ers 20 Redskins 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 19 Redskins 11
(Stopped posting to Yahoo Contributor Network)
Week 10: 49ers 20 Giants 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 27 Giants 20
Week 11: 49ers 26 Cardinals 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 23 Cardinals 7
Week 12:
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Postgame notes: 49ers improve to 9-1
The 49ers dominated the Cardinals. Yet, they also didn't play well, particularly in the first half.
Just start looking at the mistakes.
Braylon Edwards dropped touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Vernon Davis for sure touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Michael Crabtree for sure touchdown.
Two field goals blocked and one missed.
Fortunately, the 49ers played a great third quarter, putting together two touchdown drives, and that was enough to expand the lead to 23 -- which led to a sluggish fourth quarter, and a final score of 23-7.
Once again, the defense was excellent. Overall the 49ers forced five turnovers and continue to lead the league in turnover margin at +17.
Now the 49ers have a short week to prepare for the Baltimore Ravens. When I looked at the stats of the Ravens and Bengals game, I was stunned to see that Baltimore allowed 483 yards.
But it had less to do with bad defense and more to do with perfect throws from Andy Dalton. I'm not sure Alex Smith is capable of such a performance.
Not to say Dalton is better than Smith. (Dalton's three interceptions probably cost the Bengals the game. In comparison, Smith has only thrown four interceptions this season.) I'm just saying that the 49ers cannot get into a gunslinger game and expect to win, especially with Torrey Smith looking like an elite receiver these days. A Dashon Goldson suspension would be devastating with Smith and Anquan Boldin stretching the 49ers defense.
The Ravens run defense has been excellent this season and played well overall on Sunday. But Cedric Benson did have a couple of short touchdown runs. Ray Lewis's absence may have had an impact on those runs. If he can't play on Thursday, the 49ers may be able to have some success running between the tackles.
This will be a huge key to the game, particularly in the red zone. Since the demolition of the Bucs, the 49ers have settled for way too many field goals.
@ Detroit: 3 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Cleveland: 2 field goals and stalled drive at opponent's 1-yard line
@ Washington: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. NYG: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Arizona: 6 field goal attempts, three in red zone, one INT in red zone
If the 49ers can't run the ball in the red zone, then you can expect this trend to continue against the Ravens stout defense.
I will post predictions before the game on Thursday, but a few more stats to note.
The Ravens are 5-0 at home this year.
The Ravens three losses have come to teams with a combined record of 12-18.
In the last five weeks, the Ravens point differential is only +3.
The 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread this year.
They are 4-0 on the road this season, looking to be the first team since the 2007 Patriots to go undefeated on the road in the regular season (the Packers are obviously vying for the same record).
Just start looking at the mistakes.
Braylon Edwards dropped touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Vernon Davis for sure touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Michael Crabtree for sure touchdown.
Two field goals blocked and one missed.
Fortunately, the 49ers played a great third quarter, putting together two touchdown drives, and that was enough to expand the lead to 23 -- which led to a sluggish fourth quarter, and a final score of 23-7.
Once again, the defense was excellent. Overall the 49ers forced five turnovers and continue to lead the league in turnover margin at +17.
Now the 49ers have a short week to prepare for the Baltimore Ravens. When I looked at the stats of the Ravens and Bengals game, I was stunned to see that Baltimore allowed 483 yards.
But it had less to do with bad defense and more to do with perfect throws from Andy Dalton. I'm not sure Alex Smith is capable of such a performance.
Not to say Dalton is better than Smith. (Dalton's three interceptions probably cost the Bengals the game. In comparison, Smith has only thrown four interceptions this season.) I'm just saying that the 49ers cannot get into a gunslinger game and expect to win, especially with Torrey Smith looking like an elite receiver these days. A Dashon Goldson suspension would be devastating with Smith and Anquan Boldin stretching the 49ers defense.
The Ravens run defense has been excellent this season and played well overall on Sunday. But Cedric Benson did have a couple of short touchdown runs. Ray Lewis's absence may have had an impact on those runs. If he can't play on Thursday, the 49ers may be able to have some success running between the tackles.
This will be a huge key to the game, particularly in the red zone. Since the demolition of the Bucs, the 49ers have settled for way too many field goals.
@ Detroit: 3 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Cleveland: 2 field goals and stalled drive at opponent's 1-yard line
@ Washington: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. NYG: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Arizona: 6 field goal attempts, three in red zone, one INT in red zone
If the 49ers can't run the ball in the red zone, then you can expect this trend to continue against the Ravens stout defense.
I will post predictions before the game on Thursday, but a few more stats to note.
The Ravens are 5-0 at home this year.
The Ravens three losses have come to teams with a combined record of 12-18.
In the last five weeks, the Ravens point differential is only +3.
The 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread this year.
They are 4-0 on the road this season, looking to be the first team since the 2007 Patriots to go undefeated on the road in the regular season (the Packers are obviously vying for the same record).
Sunday, November 13, 2011
How do you beat the 49ers?
The San Francisco 49ers 8-1 start begs the question: Are they Super Bowl contenders? The debate is hotter than ever after San Francisco’s 27-20 win over the New York Giants on Sunday. How can a team, following eight years of futility, suddenly be so good? Many aren’t buying the 49ers start, suggesting that their poor pass defense and game-manager quarterback will eventually bring them down in the playoffs. But the 49ers have created a winning formula despite these negative perceptions. So, what’s the formula that has led to the 49ers winning seven straight?
First off, Frank Gore has been excellent in five of the last seven games, rushing for 634 yards in that span. Alex Smith has been steady in six of the seven games, tossing nine touchdowns and two interceptions. The 49ers lead the league in rushing defense and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. Lastly, the 49ers have a +13 turnover margin for the season.
So, from this list, it appears that 49ers formula is solid run defense, great running game, steady quarterback play and winning the turnover battle -- a pretty bullet proof formula if you ask me.
But it hasn’t always been that easy.
Against the Eagles the 49ers allowed more than 100 yards rushing. Yet, they still beat the Eagles 24-23 by winning the other three phases.
Against the Lions, Alex Smith was atrocious and the 49ers lost the turnover battle. But a great defense and running game was enough to down Detroit 25-19.
Against the Giants, the 49ers only racked up 50 yards from their running backs. They still managed to beat New York by winning the other three phases.
We’ve also learned a lot about how the 49ers play from behind. First the Bengals tried to beat the 49ers at their own game by running the ball and playing great defense with a second half lead. But the 49ers pulled ahead late in the fourth, winning 13-8.
Then the Eagles tried to add on to the lead with big passing plays. But the 49ers thwarted their attempts and scored 21 unanswered to win.
The Lions decided to abandon the running game entirely, taking the 49ers best unit out of the game. But the 49ers still found a way to win.
So how do you beat these 49ers?
I’d say a great passing offense combined with a great passing defense would be your best bet. The 49ers have only truly needed Lady Luck in two games -- against the Eagles and Lions. The Eagles were the only team to dominate the 49ers pass defense, and the Lions were the only team to totally shut down Alex Smith. If any team could put both together, (The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys come to mind) it would vanquish the 49ers.
But to simply write them off in the playoffs isn’t fair. Alex Smith has proven that he can make plays against good defenses. And I encourage you to ask Matthew Stafford about the 49ers pass defense before you judge.
I think we’ve learned in the last several weeks that the 49ers are for real. They don’t have a glaring weakness, and they boast a few strengths -- special teams, run defense and run offense.
I’m not going to declare that the 49ers are Super Bowl favorites. But before you say, “I hope we get to play the 49ers in the playoffs,” remember that no team has been as consistent as San Francisco in all three phases up to this point in the season.
First off, Frank Gore has been excellent in five of the last seven games, rushing for 634 yards in that span. Alex Smith has been steady in six of the seven games, tossing nine touchdowns and two interceptions. The 49ers lead the league in rushing defense and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. Lastly, the 49ers have a +13 turnover margin for the season.
So, from this list, it appears that 49ers formula is solid run defense, great running game, steady quarterback play and winning the turnover battle -- a pretty bullet proof formula if you ask me.
But it hasn’t always been that easy.
Against the Eagles the 49ers allowed more than 100 yards rushing. Yet, they still beat the Eagles 24-23 by winning the other three phases.
Against the Lions, Alex Smith was atrocious and the 49ers lost the turnover battle. But a great defense and running game was enough to down Detroit 25-19.
Against the Giants, the 49ers only racked up 50 yards from their running backs. They still managed to beat New York by winning the other three phases.
We’ve also learned a lot about how the 49ers play from behind. First the Bengals tried to beat the 49ers at their own game by running the ball and playing great defense with a second half lead. But the 49ers pulled ahead late in the fourth, winning 13-8.
Then the Eagles tried to add on to the lead with big passing plays. But the 49ers thwarted their attempts and scored 21 unanswered to win.
The Lions decided to abandon the running game entirely, taking the 49ers best unit out of the game. But the 49ers still found a way to win.
So how do you beat these 49ers?
I’d say a great passing offense combined with a great passing defense would be your best bet. The 49ers have only truly needed Lady Luck in two games -- against the Eagles and Lions. The Eagles were the only team to dominate the 49ers pass defense, and the Lions were the only team to totally shut down Alex Smith. If any team could put both together, (The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys come to mind) it would vanquish the 49ers.
But to simply write them off in the playoffs isn’t fair. Alex Smith has proven that he can make plays against good defenses. And I encourage you to ask Matthew Stafford about the 49ers pass defense before you judge.
I think we’ve learned in the last several weeks that the 49ers are for real. They don’t have a glaring weakness, and they boast a few strengths -- special teams, run defense and run offense.
I’m not going to declare that the 49ers are Super Bowl favorites. But before you say, “I hope we get to play the 49ers in the playoffs,” remember that no team has been as consistent as San Francisco in all three phases up to this point in the season.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Curry time
Thirteen assists, no turnovers and a plus-17.
Add 23 points on 18 shot attempts and you have Stephen Curry, the leader of the Warriors 100-94 win over the Thunder on Sunday at Oracle Arena.
Curry was the best player on the floor in this one. It begs the question, is Curry being unproperly utilized by the Warriors coaching staff?
Or in other words, should Curry have the ball more often than Monta Ellis?
My answer: yes and yes.
Curry IS the Warriors point guard. And because of this, he has more VALUE than Ellis.
At this stage in his career, he's not as good of a defender as Ellis and he may never be the slasher Ellis is.
But Curry can create better than Ellis ever will, and that's what the Warriors need.
The Thunder had no answers, because sometimes, there are no answers.
So give Stephen Curry the ball!
And maybe next year, with the acquistion of Tyson Chandler, the Warriors will be a playoff team.
Add 23 points on 18 shot attempts and you have Stephen Curry, the leader of the Warriors 100-94 win over the Thunder on Sunday at Oracle Arena.
Curry was the best player on the floor in this one. It begs the question, is Curry being unproperly utilized by the Warriors coaching staff?
Or in other words, should Curry have the ball more often than Monta Ellis?
My answer: yes and yes.
Curry IS the Warriors point guard. And because of this, he has more VALUE than Ellis.
At this stage in his career, he's not as good of a defender as Ellis and he may never be the slasher Ellis is.
But Curry can create better than Ellis ever will, and that's what the Warriors need.
The Thunder had no answers, because sometimes, there are no answers.
So give Stephen Curry the ball!
And maybe next year, with the acquistion of Tyson Chandler, the Warriors will be a playoff team.
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