Sunday, November 20, 2011

Postgame notes: 49ers improve to 9-1

The 49ers dominated the Cardinals. Yet, they also didn't play well, particularly in the first half.

Just start looking at the mistakes.

Braylon Edwards dropped touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Vernon Davis for sure touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Michael Crabtree for sure touchdown.
Two field goals blocked and one missed.

Fortunately, the 49ers played a great third quarter, putting together two touchdown drives, and that was enough to expand the lead to 23 -- which led to a sluggish fourth quarter, and a final score of 23-7.

Once again, the defense was excellent. Overall the 49ers forced five turnovers and continue to lead the league in turnover margin at +17.

Now the 49ers have a short week to prepare for the Baltimore Ravens. When I looked at the stats of the Ravens and Bengals game, I was stunned to see that Baltimore allowed 483 yards.

But it had less to do with bad defense and more to do with perfect throws from Andy Dalton. I'm not sure Alex Smith is capable of such a performance.

Not to say Dalton is better than Smith. (Dalton's three interceptions probably cost the Bengals the game. In comparison, Smith has only thrown four interceptions this season.) I'm just saying that the 49ers cannot get into a gunslinger game and expect to win, especially with Torrey Smith looking like an elite receiver these days. A Dashon Goldson suspension would be devastating with Smith and Anquan Boldin stretching the 49ers defense.

The Ravens run defense has been excellent this season and played well overall on Sunday. But Cedric Benson did have a couple of short touchdown runs. Ray Lewis's absence may have had an impact on those runs. If he can't play on Thursday, the 49ers may be able to have some success running between the tackles.

This will be a huge key to the game, particularly in the red zone. Since the demolition of the Bucs, the 49ers have settled for way too many field goals.

@ Detroit: 3 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Cleveland: 2 field goals and stalled drive at opponent's 1-yard line
@ Washington: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. NYG: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Arizona: 6 field goal attempts, three in red zone, one INT in red zone

If the 49ers can't run the ball in the red zone, then you can expect this trend to continue against the Ravens stout defense.

I will post predictions before the game on Thursday, but a few more stats to note.

The Ravens are 5-0 at home this year.
The Ravens three losses have come to teams with a combined record of 12-18.
In the last five weeks, the Ravens point differential is only +3.
The 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread this year.
They are 4-0 on the road this season, looking to be the first team since the 2007 Patriots to go undefeated on the road in the regular season (the Packers are obviously vying for the same record).

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