NFC
1. Green Bay Packers 16-0
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 12-4
4. Dallas Cowboys 11-5
5. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
6. Chicago Bears 10-6
- I believe the Packers are going to go undefeated in the regular season. But if they lose a game before Week 17, I wouldn't be surprised if the Detroit Lions handed them their second loss in the last week of the season. So if you are a Lions fan, root against the Packers just so they will take it easy on you in Week 17.
- The Atlanta Falcons are playing well and have a friendly schedule. They also have a head to head victory against the Lions, giving them the edge if there is a tie for the last spot.
- Caleb Hanie was awful in his first game as starting quarterback of the Bears. Yet with games remaining against the Chiefs, Seahawks and Vikings, the Bears should be able to win at least three more games.
- This means I have the Lions out, but I could easily see them getting in if they beat a shorthanded Packers team in Week 17.
- The only other team worthy of mention is the New York Giants. With their brutal schedule, winning more than 9 seems like too much to ask.
AFC
1. Baltimore Ravens 13-3
2. New England Patriots 13-3
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Oakland Raiders 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
- It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the AFC's three best teams (Ravens, Patriots, Steelers) win out. The Ravens have been the shakiest road team and have three road games left, but with home-field advantage for the playoffs at stake, I think the Ravens will take care of business. The Patriots and Steelers seem like locks for at least 12 wins.
- Who had the Raiders and Broncos as the top two AFC West contenders? Both teams are inconsistent. I think the Raiders are a slightly better team at this point so I'll give them the nod.
- The last spot goes to the Bengals. If they can beat the Rams and Cardinals, they'd probably need just one more win to make the playoffs. But you never know how a rookie quarterback will respond to the pressure of December football. Still, I'll take them for now, but remember that the Broncos have the head to head tiebreaker against them.
- The Titans would likely have to win out to overtake the Texans in the AFC South or the Bengals for the last spot in the rankings. I don't think they'll even get close, especially with the Saints still on their schedule.
- This leaves the Jets, who would have the tiebreaker over nobody. They would likely have to win out to make the playoffs. Fortunately, they only have one game left against a team with an over .500 record (Giants). I say they find a way to lose one game and miss out on the playoffs.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
NFL Power Rankings post-Thanksgiving
Tier 1 (Super Bowl favorites)
1. Green Bay Packers 11-0
Aaron Rodgers gets all the talk, and he deserves most of it, but what about the Packers defense. Shutting out the Lions for three quarters is extraordinary.
2. Baltimore Ravens 8-3
The Ravens have earned this spot in the rankings because they 4-0 against serious playoff contenders this season.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3
Only the Steelers and the teams ranked ahead of them boast an above average quarterback, a brutal pass rush and playmaking secondary.
Tier 2 (Contenders)
4. New England Patriots 7-3
Two myths about the Pats are they’re defense stinks and their run game is nonexistent. The Patriots only allow 20.3 points per game, ranking 10th in the NFL. They also rush for 111 yards per game.
5. Dallas Cowboys 7-4
Demarco Murray has brought balance to the Cowboys offense, a scary proposition for opposing defenses.
6. San Francisco 49ers 9-2
No question about it -- the 49ers were exposed by the Ravens. Clearly the 49ers defense will have to force turnovers to assist the offense in big games.
7. New Orleans Saints 7-3
A team led by Drew Brees is a threat to beat any NFL team. But the Saints may not have enough defense to compete with Packers in the NFC playoffs.
Tier 3 (Early playoff exit likely)
8. Atlanta Falcons 6-4
With the Lions having a brutal schedule to close the season and the injury to Jay Cutler, the Falcons have a great opportunity to claim one of the two Wild Card spots in the NFC.
9. Houston Texans 7-3
Matt Leinart is in a great position to succeed, (underrated defense, great running game, the return of Andre Johnson) and I think he will easily lead the Texans to the playoffs.
10. Cincinnati Bengals 6-4
Andy Dalton threw for 373 yards against the Ravens. That’s very impressive. As long as the Bengals can take care of business against inferior teams, they will make the playoffs.
11. Chicago Bears 7-3
The Bears offensive line is atrocious and you can’t expect an inexperienced quarterback to succeed in this situation. But the Bears still can run it with Matt Forte and play stifling defense.
Tier 4 (Average teams that don‘t belong in the playoffs)
12. Detroit Lions 7-4
Just when you thought the Lions established a running game, Kevin Smith gets hurt. It would be devastating if Ndamukong Suh was suspended for next week’s clash against the Saints.
13. Oakland Raiders 6-4
I suspect the Raiders offense will carry them into the playoffs. But if the defense doesn’t improve, they will likely be one and done.
14. New York Giants 6-4
The disappointing trend for the Giants is there inability to run the ball. This leads to Eli Manning interceptions and Giants losses.
15. New York Jets 5-5
Mark Sanchez sub-80 QB rating tells the story. If the Jets had better quarterback play, they’d be Super Bowl contenders.
16. Philadelphia Eagles 4-6
A loss and their season is over. But before you say they are rated too high, honestly ask if you think the Eagles are worse than any of the teams lower on this list.
Tier 5 (The rest)
17. San Diego Chargers 4-6
18. Tennessee Titans 5-5
19. Denver Broncos 5-5
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6
21. Miami Dolphins 3-8
22. Seattle Seahawks 4-6
23. Buffalo Bills 5-5
24. Washington Redskins 3-7
25. Carolina Panthers 2-8
26. Kansas City Chiefs 4-6
27. Cleveland Browns 4-6
28. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7
29. Minnesota Vikings 2-8
30. Arizona Cardinals 3-7
31. St. Louis Rams 2-8
32. Indianapolis Colts 0-10
1. Green Bay Packers 11-0
Aaron Rodgers gets all the talk, and he deserves most of it, but what about the Packers defense. Shutting out the Lions for three quarters is extraordinary.
2. Baltimore Ravens 8-3
The Ravens have earned this spot in the rankings because they 4-0 against serious playoff contenders this season.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3
Only the Steelers and the teams ranked ahead of them boast an above average quarterback, a brutal pass rush and playmaking secondary.
Tier 2 (Contenders)
4. New England Patriots 7-3
Two myths about the Pats are they’re defense stinks and their run game is nonexistent. The Patriots only allow 20.3 points per game, ranking 10th in the NFL. They also rush for 111 yards per game.
5. Dallas Cowboys 7-4
Demarco Murray has brought balance to the Cowboys offense, a scary proposition for opposing defenses.
6. San Francisco 49ers 9-2
No question about it -- the 49ers were exposed by the Ravens. Clearly the 49ers defense will have to force turnovers to assist the offense in big games.
7. New Orleans Saints 7-3
A team led by Drew Brees is a threat to beat any NFL team. But the Saints may not have enough defense to compete with Packers in the NFC playoffs.
Tier 3 (Early playoff exit likely)
8. Atlanta Falcons 6-4
With the Lions having a brutal schedule to close the season and the injury to Jay Cutler, the Falcons have a great opportunity to claim one of the two Wild Card spots in the NFC.
9. Houston Texans 7-3
Matt Leinart is in a great position to succeed, (underrated defense, great running game, the return of Andre Johnson) and I think he will easily lead the Texans to the playoffs.
10. Cincinnati Bengals 6-4
Andy Dalton threw for 373 yards against the Ravens. That’s very impressive. As long as the Bengals can take care of business against inferior teams, they will make the playoffs.
11. Chicago Bears 7-3
The Bears offensive line is atrocious and you can’t expect an inexperienced quarterback to succeed in this situation. But the Bears still can run it with Matt Forte and play stifling defense.
Tier 4 (Average teams that don‘t belong in the playoffs)
12. Detroit Lions 7-4
Just when you thought the Lions established a running game, Kevin Smith gets hurt. It would be devastating if Ndamukong Suh was suspended for next week’s clash against the Saints.
13. Oakland Raiders 6-4
I suspect the Raiders offense will carry them into the playoffs. But if the defense doesn’t improve, they will likely be one and done.
14. New York Giants 6-4
The disappointing trend for the Giants is there inability to run the ball. This leads to Eli Manning interceptions and Giants losses.
15. New York Jets 5-5
Mark Sanchez sub-80 QB rating tells the story. If the Jets had better quarterback play, they’d be Super Bowl contenders.
16. Philadelphia Eagles 4-6
A loss and their season is over. But before you say they are rated too high, honestly ask if you think the Eagles are worse than any of the teams lower on this list.
Tier 5 (The rest)
17. San Diego Chargers 4-6
18. Tennessee Titans 5-5
19. Denver Broncos 5-5
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6
21. Miami Dolphins 3-8
22. Seattle Seahawks 4-6
23. Buffalo Bills 5-5
24. Washington Redskins 3-7
25. Carolina Panthers 2-8
26. Kansas City Chiefs 4-6
27. Cleveland Browns 4-6
28. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7
29. Minnesota Vikings 2-8
30. Arizona Cardinals 3-7
31. St. Louis Rams 2-8
32. Indianapolis Colts 0-10
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Postgame notes: Ravens blitz 49ers
The 49ers offense was downright abysmal against the Ravens. The ineffective pass protection by the offensive line was the main issue as the Ravens tied a franchise record with nine sacks.
Defensively, the 49ers played okay. But anytime you play the Ravens, a big key to the game is to make Joe Flacco uncomfortable. He had too much time in the pocket, particularly in the second half, as he picked apart the 49ers secondary at the tune of four consecutive third-down conversions in the Ravens go-ahead touchdown drive.
The 49ers lost the turnover battle for just the second time this year (the other time was against the Detroit Lions, an SF 25-19 victory).
There aren't many positives to be taken from this game, other than the fact that the 49ers were due for a butt-kicking and got it at the right time.
Yeah I said it. The 49ers needed a butt-kicking in the worst way. Every NFL team since the merger, sans the 1972 Miami Dolphins, has lost at least one game.
Losing makes you hungrier. And the 49ers needed it.
Over the last several weeks, the 49ers have struggled to put away inferior opponents. In all honesty, the 49ers should have beat the Arizona Cardinals by 40, but silly offensive mistakes allowed Arizona to stay in the game until the end of the third quarter.
But the 49ers were winning, and it's hard to berate a winner.
Now the 49ers have five games to get these problems fixed. Fortunately, they also have one more Super Bowl contending team left on the schedule as a GPS game for the playoffs. That game, a Monday Night showdown with the defending Super Bowl runner-up Steelers, will give the 49ers one last chance to show their true colors.
San Francisco's defense needs to figure out a way to get more pressure on the quarterback. The 49ers are becoming a bit too predictable in their nickel package. The Ravens were able to block San Francisco's four-man rush effectively. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio didn't dial up a lot of blitzes, and Flacco was able to make plays down the field in the second half.
But enough about the defense, which in its defense only allowed 16 points and completely shut down premier running back Ray Rice.
The offense needs a tune-up in every way. First off, the rushing attack was nonexistent. This has been an issue of late, and if the 49ers need to spread the field more and pass to set up the run, so be it. But the 49ers can't expect to win games when Frank Gore has 39 rushing yards.
Secondly, San Francisco needs to work on its quick-hitting plays. Chances are the 49ers will not be able to attack down the field against playoff defenses, especially ones with great pass rushers (i.e. Detroit, Green Bay, Dallas). In reality, the 49ers have been effectively passing the ball all year, and you have to give the Ravens credit for disrupting all facets of the 49ers game. Still, you would have liked to have seen more slants and quick outs or even screen passes by San Francisco.
At the end of the day, the 49ers (9-2) are in total command in the NFC West and the race for the NFC's second seed in the playoffs. This was the toughest game on the schedule (Joe Flacco is now 16-1 in his last 17 home games) and the 49ers need to move on and try to improve in their last five games.
Stats to note:
This was the 49ers first loss against the spread. They're now 9-1-1 this year.
This was the first time Alex Smith has posted a negative touchdown to interception ratio since a Dec. 16 loss to the Chargers last year.
The 49ers longest run in their last three games is 14 yards.
If the 49ers and Saints both finished 13-3, the 49ers would own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record. If the 49ers and Cowboys finished with the same record, the Cowboys would get the higher seed because of their head to head win (and the Niners over the Giants for the same reason).
Defensively, the 49ers played okay. But anytime you play the Ravens, a big key to the game is to make Joe Flacco uncomfortable. He had too much time in the pocket, particularly in the second half, as he picked apart the 49ers secondary at the tune of four consecutive third-down conversions in the Ravens go-ahead touchdown drive.
The 49ers lost the turnover battle for just the second time this year (the other time was against the Detroit Lions, an SF 25-19 victory).
There aren't many positives to be taken from this game, other than the fact that the 49ers were due for a butt-kicking and got it at the right time.
Yeah I said it. The 49ers needed a butt-kicking in the worst way. Every NFL team since the merger, sans the 1972 Miami Dolphins, has lost at least one game.
Losing makes you hungrier. And the 49ers needed it.
Over the last several weeks, the 49ers have struggled to put away inferior opponents. In all honesty, the 49ers should have beat the Arizona Cardinals by 40, but silly offensive mistakes allowed Arizona to stay in the game until the end of the third quarter.
But the 49ers were winning, and it's hard to berate a winner.
Now the 49ers have five games to get these problems fixed. Fortunately, they also have one more Super Bowl contending team left on the schedule as a GPS game for the playoffs. That game, a Monday Night showdown with the defending Super Bowl runner-up Steelers, will give the 49ers one last chance to show their true colors.
San Francisco's defense needs to figure out a way to get more pressure on the quarterback. The 49ers are becoming a bit too predictable in their nickel package. The Ravens were able to block San Francisco's four-man rush effectively. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio didn't dial up a lot of blitzes, and Flacco was able to make plays down the field in the second half.
But enough about the defense, which in its defense only allowed 16 points and completely shut down premier running back Ray Rice.
The offense needs a tune-up in every way. First off, the rushing attack was nonexistent. This has been an issue of late, and if the 49ers need to spread the field more and pass to set up the run, so be it. But the 49ers can't expect to win games when Frank Gore has 39 rushing yards.
Secondly, San Francisco needs to work on its quick-hitting plays. Chances are the 49ers will not be able to attack down the field against playoff defenses, especially ones with great pass rushers (i.e. Detroit, Green Bay, Dallas). In reality, the 49ers have been effectively passing the ball all year, and you have to give the Ravens credit for disrupting all facets of the 49ers game. Still, you would have liked to have seen more slants and quick outs or even screen passes by San Francisco.
At the end of the day, the 49ers (9-2) are in total command in the NFC West and the race for the NFC's second seed in the playoffs. This was the toughest game on the schedule (Joe Flacco is now 16-1 in his last 17 home games) and the 49ers need to move on and try to improve in their last five games.
Stats to note:
This was the 49ers first loss against the spread. They're now 9-1-1 this year.
This was the first time Alex Smith has posted a negative touchdown to interception ratio since a Dec. 16 loss to the Chargers last year.
The 49ers longest run in their last three games is 14 yards.
If the 49ers and Saints both finished 13-3, the 49ers would own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record. If the 49ers and Cowboys finished with the same record, the Cowboys would get the higher seed because of their head to head win (and the Niners over the Giants for the same reason).
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
HarBowl prediction
Two great defenses. Two imperfect quarterbacks. Two great teams.
That’s what you’re going to get when the San Francisco 49ers (9-1) and Baltimore Ravens (7-3) square off in Baltimore on Thursday for the first edition of the HarBowl.
Keys to the game:
The best way to beat the Ravens is to get a lead on them early in the game and make them one-dimensional. The Seahawks, Titans and Jaguars (three unimpressive teams if you ask me) were all able to beat the Ravens using this formula. Clearly this is easier said than done, as the Ravens have dominated the Jets and Texans. They’ve beat the Steelers twice, once by 3 and once by 28.
So first key to this game has to be for the 49ers to SCORE FIRST.
Secondly, when the Ravens have fallen behind, they’ve aired it out with Joe Flacco. Inconsistency has defined his career, yet it would be foolish to assume he is incapable of torching the 49ers secondary. Flacco led the Ravens back from 21 points down to beat the Cardinals. Even more impressive, he led game-winning touchdown drive in Pittsburgh to beat the Steelers by 3. The common denominator in all these games was the success of Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin.
So the 49ers secondary CANNOT GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY.
Lastly, the 49ers need to score touchdowns in the red zone. Against Arizona, the 49ers settled for six field goal attempts before they reached the end zone. This can’t happen against the Ravens. I understand that Alex Smith’s goal is to prevent turnovers, and his quality decision-making is the biggest reason why the 49ers are 9-1. But at some point in this game, Smith is going to have to throw the ball into man coverage and trust his receiver to make a play.
In other words, Smith must play AGGRESSIVE IN THE RED ZONE.
Prediction:
The Ravens have got up for every big game they’ve played this year. Crowd noise and a vicious pass rush should keep the 49ers offense in check early in the game, and when the Ravens play from ahead they're very dangerous. I expect the 49ers to absorb some early blows and stay in the game, but ultimately Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense will hold on late in the game to beat the 49ers.
Ravens 16 49ers 13
That’s what you’re going to get when the San Francisco 49ers (9-1) and Baltimore Ravens (7-3) square off in Baltimore on Thursday for the first edition of the HarBowl.
Keys to the game:
The best way to beat the Ravens is to get a lead on them early in the game and make them one-dimensional. The Seahawks, Titans and Jaguars (three unimpressive teams if you ask me) were all able to beat the Ravens using this formula. Clearly this is easier said than done, as the Ravens have dominated the Jets and Texans. They’ve beat the Steelers twice, once by 3 and once by 28.
So first key to this game has to be for the 49ers to SCORE FIRST.
Secondly, when the Ravens have fallen behind, they’ve aired it out with Joe Flacco. Inconsistency has defined his career, yet it would be foolish to assume he is incapable of torching the 49ers secondary. Flacco led the Ravens back from 21 points down to beat the Cardinals. Even more impressive, he led game-winning touchdown drive in Pittsburgh to beat the Steelers by 3. The common denominator in all these games was the success of Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin.
So the 49ers secondary CANNOT GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY.
Lastly, the 49ers need to score touchdowns in the red zone. Against Arizona, the 49ers settled for six field goal attempts before they reached the end zone. This can’t happen against the Ravens. I understand that Alex Smith’s goal is to prevent turnovers, and his quality decision-making is the biggest reason why the 49ers are 9-1. But at some point in this game, Smith is going to have to throw the ball into man coverage and trust his receiver to make a play.
In other words, Smith must play AGGRESSIVE IN THE RED ZONE.
Prediction:
The Ravens have got up for every big game they’ve played this year. Crowd noise and a vicious pass rush should keep the 49ers offense in check early in the game, and when the Ravens play from ahead they're very dangerous. I expect the 49ers to absorb some early blows and stay in the game, but ultimately Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense will hold on late in the game to beat the 49ers.
Ravens 16 49ers 13
49ers predictions page
Below are my 49ers predictions this season. So far I am 5-5 and I'm 6-3-1 against the spread. As you can see, it took me a while to warm up the the 49ers. But now it's hard to deny that they are one of the elite teams in the NFL.
Week 1 49ers 20 Seahawks 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 33 Seahawks 17
http://bit.ly/vV7xh0
Week 2: 49ers 24 Cowboys 23
ACTUAL: Cowboys 27 49ers 24
http://bit.ly/qdThr5
Week 3: Bengals 19 49ers 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 13 Bengals 8
http://bit.ly/n4iJAY
Week 4: Eagles 30 49ers 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 24 Eagles 23
http://bit.ly/q9Gjhk
Week 5: Bucs 23 49ers 20
ACTUAL: 49ers 48 Bucs 3
http://bit.ly/nvAj8X
Week 6: Lions 24 49ers 23
ACTUAL: 49ers 25 Lions 19
http://bit.ly/oFPvKE
Week 8: 49ers 27 Browns 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 20 Browns 10
http://bit.ly/uEXLZ3
Week 9: 49ers 20 Redskins 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 19 Redskins 11
(Stopped posting to Yahoo Contributor Network)
Week 10: 49ers 20 Giants 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 27 Giants 20
Week 11: 49ers 26 Cardinals 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 23 Cardinals 7
Week 12:
Week 1 49ers 20 Seahawks 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 33 Seahawks 17
http://bit.ly/vV7xh0
Week 2: 49ers 24 Cowboys 23
ACTUAL: Cowboys 27 49ers 24
http://bit.ly/qdThr5
Week 3: Bengals 19 49ers 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 13 Bengals 8
http://bit.ly/n4iJAY
Week 4: Eagles 30 49ers 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 24 Eagles 23
http://bit.ly/q9Gjhk
Week 5: Bucs 23 49ers 20
ACTUAL: 49ers 48 Bucs 3
http://bit.ly/nvAj8X
Week 6: Lions 24 49ers 23
ACTUAL: 49ers 25 Lions 19
http://bit.ly/oFPvKE
Week 8: 49ers 27 Browns 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 20 Browns 10
http://bit.ly/uEXLZ3
Week 9: 49ers 20 Redskins 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 19 Redskins 11
(Stopped posting to Yahoo Contributor Network)
Week 10: 49ers 20 Giants 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 27 Giants 20
Week 11: 49ers 26 Cardinals 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 23 Cardinals 7
Week 12:
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Postgame notes: 49ers improve to 9-1
The 49ers dominated the Cardinals. Yet, they also didn't play well, particularly in the first half.
Just start looking at the mistakes.
Braylon Edwards dropped touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Vernon Davis for sure touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Michael Crabtree for sure touchdown.
Two field goals blocked and one missed.
Fortunately, the 49ers played a great third quarter, putting together two touchdown drives, and that was enough to expand the lead to 23 -- which led to a sluggish fourth quarter, and a final score of 23-7.
Once again, the defense was excellent. Overall the 49ers forced five turnovers and continue to lead the league in turnover margin at +17.
Now the 49ers have a short week to prepare for the Baltimore Ravens. When I looked at the stats of the Ravens and Bengals game, I was stunned to see that Baltimore allowed 483 yards.
But it had less to do with bad defense and more to do with perfect throws from Andy Dalton. I'm not sure Alex Smith is capable of such a performance.
Not to say Dalton is better than Smith. (Dalton's three interceptions probably cost the Bengals the game. In comparison, Smith has only thrown four interceptions this season.) I'm just saying that the 49ers cannot get into a gunslinger game and expect to win, especially with Torrey Smith looking like an elite receiver these days. A Dashon Goldson suspension would be devastating with Smith and Anquan Boldin stretching the 49ers defense.
The Ravens run defense has been excellent this season and played well overall on Sunday. But Cedric Benson did have a couple of short touchdown runs. Ray Lewis's absence may have had an impact on those runs. If he can't play on Thursday, the 49ers may be able to have some success running between the tackles.
This will be a huge key to the game, particularly in the red zone. Since the demolition of the Bucs, the 49ers have settled for way too many field goals.
@ Detroit: 3 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Cleveland: 2 field goals and stalled drive at opponent's 1-yard line
@ Washington: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. NYG: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Arizona: 6 field goal attempts, three in red zone, one INT in red zone
If the 49ers can't run the ball in the red zone, then you can expect this trend to continue against the Ravens stout defense.
I will post predictions before the game on Thursday, but a few more stats to note.
The Ravens are 5-0 at home this year.
The Ravens three losses have come to teams with a combined record of 12-18.
In the last five weeks, the Ravens point differential is only +3.
The 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread this year.
They are 4-0 on the road this season, looking to be the first team since the 2007 Patriots to go undefeated on the road in the regular season (the Packers are obviously vying for the same record).
Just start looking at the mistakes.
Braylon Edwards dropped touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Vernon Davis for sure touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Michael Crabtree for sure touchdown.
Two field goals blocked and one missed.
Fortunately, the 49ers played a great third quarter, putting together two touchdown drives, and that was enough to expand the lead to 23 -- which led to a sluggish fourth quarter, and a final score of 23-7.
Once again, the defense was excellent. Overall the 49ers forced five turnovers and continue to lead the league in turnover margin at +17.
Now the 49ers have a short week to prepare for the Baltimore Ravens. When I looked at the stats of the Ravens and Bengals game, I was stunned to see that Baltimore allowed 483 yards.
But it had less to do with bad defense and more to do with perfect throws from Andy Dalton. I'm not sure Alex Smith is capable of such a performance.
Not to say Dalton is better than Smith. (Dalton's three interceptions probably cost the Bengals the game. In comparison, Smith has only thrown four interceptions this season.) I'm just saying that the 49ers cannot get into a gunslinger game and expect to win, especially with Torrey Smith looking like an elite receiver these days. A Dashon Goldson suspension would be devastating with Smith and Anquan Boldin stretching the 49ers defense.
The Ravens run defense has been excellent this season and played well overall on Sunday. But Cedric Benson did have a couple of short touchdown runs. Ray Lewis's absence may have had an impact on those runs. If he can't play on Thursday, the 49ers may be able to have some success running between the tackles.
This will be a huge key to the game, particularly in the red zone. Since the demolition of the Bucs, the 49ers have settled for way too many field goals.
@ Detroit: 3 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Cleveland: 2 field goals and stalled drive at opponent's 1-yard line
@ Washington: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. NYG: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Arizona: 6 field goal attempts, three in red zone, one INT in red zone
If the 49ers can't run the ball in the red zone, then you can expect this trend to continue against the Ravens stout defense.
I will post predictions before the game on Thursday, but a few more stats to note.
The Ravens are 5-0 at home this year.
The Ravens three losses have come to teams with a combined record of 12-18.
In the last five weeks, the Ravens point differential is only +3.
The 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread this year.
They are 4-0 on the road this season, looking to be the first team since the 2007 Patriots to go undefeated on the road in the regular season (the Packers are obviously vying for the same record).
Sunday, November 13, 2011
How do you beat the 49ers?
The San Francisco 49ers 8-1 start begs the question: Are they Super Bowl contenders? The debate is hotter than ever after San Francisco’s 27-20 win over the New York Giants on Sunday. How can a team, following eight years of futility, suddenly be so good? Many aren’t buying the 49ers start, suggesting that their poor pass defense and game-manager quarterback will eventually bring them down in the playoffs. But the 49ers have created a winning formula despite these negative perceptions. So, what’s the formula that has led to the 49ers winning seven straight?
First off, Frank Gore has been excellent in five of the last seven games, rushing for 634 yards in that span. Alex Smith has been steady in six of the seven games, tossing nine touchdowns and two interceptions. The 49ers lead the league in rushing defense and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. Lastly, the 49ers have a +13 turnover margin for the season.
So, from this list, it appears that 49ers formula is solid run defense, great running game, steady quarterback play and winning the turnover battle -- a pretty bullet proof formula if you ask me.
But it hasn’t always been that easy.
Against the Eagles the 49ers allowed more than 100 yards rushing. Yet, they still beat the Eagles 24-23 by winning the other three phases.
Against the Lions, Alex Smith was atrocious and the 49ers lost the turnover battle. But a great defense and running game was enough to down Detroit 25-19.
Against the Giants, the 49ers only racked up 50 yards from their running backs. They still managed to beat New York by winning the other three phases.
We’ve also learned a lot about how the 49ers play from behind. First the Bengals tried to beat the 49ers at their own game by running the ball and playing great defense with a second half lead. But the 49ers pulled ahead late in the fourth, winning 13-8.
Then the Eagles tried to add on to the lead with big passing plays. But the 49ers thwarted their attempts and scored 21 unanswered to win.
The Lions decided to abandon the running game entirely, taking the 49ers best unit out of the game. But the 49ers still found a way to win.
So how do you beat these 49ers?
I’d say a great passing offense combined with a great passing defense would be your best bet. The 49ers have only truly needed Lady Luck in two games -- against the Eagles and Lions. The Eagles were the only team to dominate the 49ers pass defense, and the Lions were the only team to totally shut down Alex Smith. If any team could put both together, (The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys come to mind) it would vanquish the 49ers.
But to simply write them off in the playoffs isn’t fair. Alex Smith has proven that he can make plays against good defenses. And I encourage you to ask Matthew Stafford about the 49ers pass defense before you judge.
I think we’ve learned in the last several weeks that the 49ers are for real. They don’t have a glaring weakness, and they boast a few strengths -- special teams, run defense and run offense.
I’m not going to declare that the 49ers are Super Bowl favorites. But before you say, “I hope we get to play the 49ers in the playoffs,” remember that no team has been as consistent as San Francisco in all three phases up to this point in the season.
First off, Frank Gore has been excellent in five of the last seven games, rushing for 634 yards in that span. Alex Smith has been steady in six of the seven games, tossing nine touchdowns and two interceptions. The 49ers lead the league in rushing defense and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. Lastly, the 49ers have a +13 turnover margin for the season.
So, from this list, it appears that 49ers formula is solid run defense, great running game, steady quarterback play and winning the turnover battle -- a pretty bullet proof formula if you ask me.
But it hasn’t always been that easy.
Against the Eagles the 49ers allowed more than 100 yards rushing. Yet, they still beat the Eagles 24-23 by winning the other three phases.
Against the Lions, Alex Smith was atrocious and the 49ers lost the turnover battle. But a great defense and running game was enough to down Detroit 25-19.
Against the Giants, the 49ers only racked up 50 yards from their running backs. They still managed to beat New York by winning the other three phases.
We’ve also learned a lot about how the 49ers play from behind. First the Bengals tried to beat the 49ers at their own game by running the ball and playing great defense with a second half lead. But the 49ers pulled ahead late in the fourth, winning 13-8.
Then the Eagles tried to add on to the lead with big passing plays. But the 49ers thwarted their attempts and scored 21 unanswered to win.
The Lions decided to abandon the running game entirely, taking the 49ers best unit out of the game. But the 49ers still found a way to win.
So how do you beat these 49ers?
I’d say a great passing offense combined with a great passing defense would be your best bet. The 49ers have only truly needed Lady Luck in two games -- against the Eagles and Lions. The Eagles were the only team to dominate the 49ers pass defense, and the Lions were the only team to totally shut down Alex Smith. If any team could put both together, (The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys come to mind) it would vanquish the 49ers.
But to simply write them off in the playoffs isn’t fair. Alex Smith has proven that he can make plays against good defenses. And I encourage you to ask Matthew Stafford about the 49ers pass defense before you judge.
I think we’ve learned in the last several weeks that the 49ers are for real. They don’t have a glaring weakness, and they boast a few strengths -- special teams, run defense and run offense.
I’m not going to declare that the 49ers are Super Bowl favorites. But before you say, “I hope we get to play the 49ers in the playoffs,” remember that no team has been as consistent as San Francisco in all three phases up to this point in the season.
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