Sunday, September 9, 2012
Postgame Reaction to the 49ers Ousting the Packers
Sometimes the San Francisco 49ers don't get the respect they deserve. Pundits point to their sometimes pedestrian quarterback play and dismiss them from the top-tier teams in the league.
Beating the Packers in Green Bay was the ultimate respect game. And the way the 49ers handled them can't be ignored.
San Francisco held Aaron Rodgers to just 6.9 yards per attempt (a stat that does not factor in the yards lost from the three sacks). In Rodgers' 15 regular season starts in 2011, he had at least 7.8 YPA in all but one game.
To put it simply, the 49ers made Rodgers look average, which doesn't happen too often.
In comparison, Alex Smith averaged 8.1 YPA. Add in 182 rushing yards, including 112 yards on 16 carries by Frank Gore, and the 49ers offense was in full control.
Nothing about this game was particularly shocking. But even the most confident of 49ers fans must have been concerned about Green Bay's receivers getting behind safeties Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson. I know I was. But Rodgers hardly tested the back end of the secondary, and when he did, Whitner, Goldson and the 49ers cornerbacks were in perfect position.
49ers vs. Packers: 3 Keys to the Game and Prediction
Let’s just say it. This game has huge playoff ramifications.
The San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers are expected to win their divisions. The top two seeds in the NFC playoffs from a year ago both made offseason acquisitions that could get them over their playoff failures and into the Super Bowl this year.
Green Bay used its draft on improving its mediocre defense. Rookie pass-rusher Nick Perry is oozing with potential. If he has an Aldon Smith-like rookie season, I can’t see how anybody would have a chance against the Pack come playoff time.
Dynamic wide receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham were brought to S.F. to add a spark to a passing game that fell apart against the Giants in the NFC Championship game. If Alex Smith approaches elite passing numbers with his new targets, the 49ers will be nearly unbeatable come playoff time.
And there’s always a chance that the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay offense struggles to repeat last year’s incredible run. The same can be said for San Francisco’s incredible defense. But with nearly every major contributor from both teams back, hungry to make a run at the Super Bowl, I expect both of team’s dominant units to be, well, dominant again.
Keys to the Game
1. Alex Smith’s Third-Down Passing
The 49ers converted just 29.4 percent of third downs last year, second worst in the NFL. That percentage fell to 26.3 percent in road games. Third-down passing is Smith’s biggest weakness, and if the 49ers are to beat the Packers on Sunday or win the Super Bowl this year, he has to better.
2. Win the Turnover Battle
The 49ers and Packers were the top two teams in turnover margin a year ago. Green Bay’s defense is susceptible to big plays, but it usually forces a couple of turnovers that set Aaron Rodgers up with short fields. If the 49ers can limit turnovers and force the Packers to sustain long drives, they’ll have a shot at keeping Green Bay in the low 20s.
3. Randy Moss Effect
Moss could give the 49ers several new dimensions. He could be the red-zone threat that propels the offense to greater touchdown efficiency. He could grab the attention of safeties, which would give more room for Vernon Davis to operate. He even could speed right pass the Green Bay secondary and catch a long touchdown pass from Alex Smith. Or he could be a complete non-factor, like he was when he was last on the field in 2010. The 49ers had a proven formula in 2011 that lacked (a lot of) huge plays in the passing game. They could still win this game and a Super Bowl without a “No. 1” receiver. But there’s no question that a productive Moss would make the 49ers a much better football team -- a team that could win a shootout against the Packers in Lambeau Field.
Conclusion
I don’t expect Alex Smith to show huge improvements from last year. Sure, he has more weapons. But he’s never shown the pocket presence necessary to consistently deliver the ball down the field. For better or worse, he tends to look to his first underneath read and quickly make an accurate throw. My guess is he doesn’t utilize Moss as well as he could this week, instead opting to find Davis and his backs for several short gains. The Packers struggled to get pressure on the quarterback a year ago, but the right side of the 49ers offensive line may be due for growing pains, which could lead to a big day for Clay Matthews. With the 49ers struggling to sustain drives and lacking big plays, the defense will have to be flawless against the most explosive offense in the league. Eventually, Rodgers will find holes in the San Francisco defense, just enough holes to get a win.
Green Bay 26 San Francisco 20
Friday, January 13, 2012
Saints vs. 49ers analysis and prediction
Nine years ago the 49ers rallied to beat the New York Giants 39-38 in the Wild Card Round of the NFC Playoffs.
Since that day, fans at Candlestick Park haven't witnessed any postseason football.
Tomorrow, the drought will end.
The 49ers, with the NFC's top-ranked defense, will take on the Saints, with the NFL's top-ranked offense.
The 49ers allow just 14.3 points per game, and that number decreases to 10.9 when they play at home.
The Saints score 34.2 points per game, but that number decreases to 27.3 when they're on the road and 25.8 when they play on grass.
Most 49ers fans have used this stat to say that Drew Brees will struggle because he's not playing at home, and the offense will be slower because they will be playing on grass instead of turf.
There is some truth to this assertion. Brees has thrown only 17 of his 45 touchdowns on the road this year. He's also thrown 8 of his 14 interceptions on the road.
I believe the 49ers defense will provide a huge challenge to Brees and the Saints offense. But it would be very ignorant to believe that the Saints will be held under 20 points. No team has held the Saints under 20 this season, and New Orleans has averaged 44 points per game in their last four games.
I doubt that the 49ers offense will put up prolific numbers. The 49ers convert just 29 percent of their third downs and they score touchdowns only 40 percent of the time in the red zone. They will need to improve on these numbers if they want to win on Sunday.
It's impossible to predict how Alex Smith will fare in his first playoff game. Smith's yards per attempt was abysmal in his last four games, but the 49ers managed to win three of those games. One big reason why is that Smith didn't turn the ball over in that stretch.
Will Alex be able to complete a few big passes and not turn the ball over? His performance is the key to the game. I've heard at least five different ESPN analysts say, "I'm taking the Saints because the 49ers have Alex Smith." Smith still has so much to prove, and he has his first big chance to silence his critics.
Here are a few interesting stats before I make a prediction:
Drew Brees has as many touchdowns on the road as Alex Smith has touchdowns.
The Saints average more rushing yards per game than the 49ers.
In their last six home games, the 49ers average margin of victory was 20 per game.
The 49ers are +28 in turnover margin. The Saints have forced 18 turnovers TOTAL.
Prediction:
I think this is going to be a really close game. It will end in the 20s. The 49ers will win the turnover battle, but the Saints will have at least 100 more yards of offense than S.F. Both teams will have problems in the red zone, and both will be held under 100 yards running the football. But with the game on the line, Drew Brees will be able to lead the Saints down the field for a game-winning field goal.
Saints 25 49ers 23
Since that day, fans at Candlestick Park haven't witnessed any postseason football.
Tomorrow, the drought will end.
The 49ers, with the NFC's top-ranked defense, will take on the Saints, with the NFL's top-ranked offense.
The 49ers allow just 14.3 points per game, and that number decreases to 10.9 when they play at home.
The Saints score 34.2 points per game, but that number decreases to 27.3 when they're on the road and 25.8 when they play on grass.
Most 49ers fans have used this stat to say that Drew Brees will struggle because he's not playing at home, and the offense will be slower because they will be playing on grass instead of turf.
There is some truth to this assertion. Brees has thrown only 17 of his 45 touchdowns on the road this year. He's also thrown 8 of his 14 interceptions on the road.
I believe the 49ers defense will provide a huge challenge to Brees and the Saints offense. But it would be very ignorant to believe that the Saints will be held under 20 points. No team has held the Saints under 20 this season, and New Orleans has averaged 44 points per game in their last four games.
I doubt that the 49ers offense will put up prolific numbers. The 49ers convert just 29 percent of their third downs and they score touchdowns only 40 percent of the time in the red zone. They will need to improve on these numbers if they want to win on Sunday.
It's impossible to predict how Alex Smith will fare in his first playoff game. Smith's yards per attempt was abysmal in his last four games, but the 49ers managed to win three of those games. One big reason why is that Smith didn't turn the ball over in that stretch.
Will Alex be able to complete a few big passes and not turn the ball over? His performance is the key to the game. I've heard at least five different ESPN analysts say, "I'm taking the Saints because the 49ers have Alex Smith." Smith still has so much to prove, and he has his first big chance to silence his critics.
Here are a few interesting stats before I make a prediction:
Drew Brees has as many touchdowns on the road as Alex Smith has touchdowns.
The Saints average more rushing yards per game than the 49ers.
In their last six home games, the 49ers average margin of victory was 20 per game.
The 49ers are +28 in turnover margin. The Saints have forced 18 turnovers TOTAL.
Prediction:
I think this is going to be a really close game. It will end in the 20s. The 49ers will win the turnover battle, but the Saints will have at least 100 more yards of offense than S.F. Both teams will have problems in the red zone, and both will be held under 100 yards running the football. But with the game on the line, Drew Brees will be able to lead the Saints down the field for a game-winning field goal.
Saints 25 49ers 23
Sunday, January 1, 2012
49ers vs. Rams II prediction
It's as simple as this: the 49ers need to beat the worst team in the NFL to get a first-round bye for the playoffs.
They will do it if they complete these three keys to the game.
1. Score a first half touchdown
The 49ers are designed to play with a lead. But San Francisco hasn't scored a touchdown in the first half in seven games. Looking forward to the playoffs, the 49ers need to get this monkey off their back. If the 49ers play a strong first half, the Rams may lay over and look toward next year.
2. Shut down Steven Jackson
This is about getting the swagger back. Marshawn Lynch broke the 49ers two impressive streaks (more than two years without a 100-yard rusher and a whole season without a touchdown).
3. Just Win Baby
It's not easy to go 13-3. Stranger things have happened than a Rams win on Sunday. Get a win, rest up, and get ready for a clash with Saints in Candlestick.
Prediction
49ers 27 Rams 7
They will do it if they complete these three keys to the game.
1. Score a first half touchdown
The 49ers are designed to play with a lead. But San Francisco hasn't scored a touchdown in the first half in seven games. Looking forward to the playoffs, the 49ers need to get this monkey off their back. If the 49ers play a strong first half, the Rams may lay over and look toward next year.
2. Shut down Steven Jackson
This is about getting the swagger back. Marshawn Lynch broke the 49ers two impressive streaks (more than two years without a 100-yard rusher and a whole season without a touchdown).
3. Just Win Baby
It's not easy to go 13-3. Stranger things have happened than a Rams win on Sunday. Get a win, rest up, and get ready for a clash with Saints in Candlestick.
Prediction
49ers 27 Rams 7
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