Sunday, September 9, 2012

Postgame Reaction to the 49ers Ousting the Packers

Sometimes the San Francisco 49ers don't get the respect they deserve. Pundits point to their sometimes pedestrian quarterback play and dismiss them from the top-tier teams in the league. Beating the Packers in Green Bay was the ultimate respect game. And the way the 49ers handled them can't be ignored. San Francisco held Aaron Rodgers to just 6.9 yards per attempt (a stat that does not factor in the yards lost from the three sacks). In Rodgers' 15 regular season starts in 2011, he had at least 7.8 YPA in all but one game. To put it simply, the 49ers made Rodgers look average, which doesn't happen too often. In comparison, Alex Smith averaged 8.1 YPA. Add in 182 rushing yards, including 112 yards on 16 carries by Frank Gore, and the 49ers offense was in full control. Nothing about this game was particularly shocking. But even the most confident of 49ers fans must have been concerned about Green Bay's receivers getting behind safeties Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson. I know I was. But Rodgers hardly tested the back end of the secondary, and when he did, Whitner, Goldson and the 49ers cornerbacks were in perfect position.

49ers vs. Packers: 3 Keys to the Game and Prediction

Let’s just say it. This game has huge playoff ramifications. The San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers are expected to win their divisions. The top two seeds in the NFC playoffs from a year ago both made offseason acquisitions that could get them over their playoff failures and into the Super Bowl this year. Green Bay used its draft on improving its mediocre defense. Rookie pass-rusher Nick Perry is oozing with potential. If he has an Aldon Smith-like rookie season, I can’t see how anybody would have a chance against the Pack come playoff time. Dynamic wide receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham were brought to S.F. to add a spark to a passing game that fell apart against the Giants in the NFC Championship game. If Alex Smith approaches elite passing numbers with his new targets, the 49ers will be nearly unbeatable come playoff time. And there’s always a chance that the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay offense struggles to repeat last year’s incredible run. The same can be said for San Francisco’s incredible defense. But with nearly every major contributor from both teams back, hungry to make a run at the Super Bowl, I expect both of team’s dominant units to be, well, dominant again. Keys to the Game 1. Alex Smith’s Third-Down Passing The 49ers converted just 29.4 percent of third downs last year, second worst in the NFL. That percentage fell to 26.3 percent in road games. Third-down passing is Smith’s biggest weakness, and if the 49ers are to beat the Packers on Sunday or win the Super Bowl this year, he has to better. 2. Win the Turnover Battle The 49ers and Packers were the top two teams in turnover margin a year ago. Green Bay’s defense is susceptible to big plays, but it usually forces a couple of turnovers that set Aaron Rodgers up with short fields. If the 49ers can limit turnovers and force the Packers to sustain long drives, they’ll have a shot at keeping Green Bay in the low 20s. 3. Randy Moss Effect Moss could give the 49ers several new dimensions. He could be the red-zone threat that propels the offense to greater touchdown efficiency. He could grab the attention of safeties, which would give more room for Vernon Davis to operate. He even could speed right pass the Green Bay secondary and catch a long touchdown pass from Alex Smith. Or he could be a complete non-factor, like he was when he was last on the field in 2010. The 49ers had a proven formula in 2011 that lacked (a lot of) huge plays in the passing game. They could still win this game and a Super Bowl without a “No. 1” receiver. But there’s no question that a productive Moss would make the 49ers a much better football team -- a team that could win a shootout against the Packers in Lambeau Field. Conclusion I don’t expect Alex Smith to show huge improvements from last year. Sure, he has more weapons. But he’s never shown the pocket presence necessary to consistently deliver the ball down the field. For better or worse, he tends to look to his first underneath read and quickly make an accurate throw. My guess is he doesn’t utilize Moss as well as he could this week, instead opting to find Davis and his backs for several short gains. The Packers struggled to get pressure on the quarterback a year ago, but the right side of the 49ers offensive line may be due for growing pains, which could lead to a big day for Clay Matthews. With the 49ers struggling to sustain drives and lacking big plays, the defense will have to be flawless against the most explosive offense in the league. Eventually, Rodgers will find holes in the San Francisco defense, just enough holes to get a win. Green Bay 26 San Francisco 20

Friday, January 13, 2012

Saints vs. 49ers analysis and prediction

Nine years ago the 49ers rallied to beat the New York Giants 39-38 in the Wild Card Round of the NFC Playoffs.

Since that day, fans at Candlestick Park haven't witnessed any postseason football.

Tomorrow, the drought will end.

The 49ers, with the NFC's top-ranked defense, will take on the Saints, with the NFL's top-ranked offense.

The 49ers allow just 14.3 points per game, and that number decreases to 10.9 when they play at home.

The Saints score 34.2 points per game, but that number decreases to 27.3 when they're on the road and 25.8 when they play on grass.

Most 49ers fans have used this stat to say that Drew Brees will struggle because he's not playing at home, and the offense will be slower because they will be playing on grass instead of turf.

There is some truth to this assertion. Brees has thrown only 17 of his 45 touchdowns on the road this year. He's also thrown 8 of his 14 interceptions on the road.

I believe the 49ers defense will provide a huge challenge to Brees and the Saints offense. But it would be very ignorant to believe that the Saints will be held under 20 points. No team has held the Saints under 20 this season, and New Orleans has averaged 44 points per game in their last four games.

I doubt that the 49ers offense will put up prolific numbers. The 49ers convert just 29 percent of their third downs and they score touchdowns only 40 percent of the time in the red zone. They will need to improve on these numbers if they want to win on Sunday.

It's impossible to predict how Alex Smith will fare in his first playoff game. Smith's yards per attempt was abysmal in his last four games, but the 49ers managed to win three of those games. One big reason why is that Smith didn't turn the ball over in that stretch.

Will Alex be able to complete a few big passes and not turn the ball over? His performance is the key to the game. I've heard at least five different ESPN analysts say, "I'm taking the Saints because the 49ers have Alex Smith." Smith still has so much to prove, and he has his first big chance to silence his critics.

Here are a few interesting stats before I make a prediction:
Drew Brees has as many touchdowns on the road as Alex Smith has touchdowns.
The Saints average more rushing yards per game than the 49ers.
In their last six home games, the 49ers average margin of victory was 20 per game.
The 49ers are +28 in turnover margin. The Saints have forced 18 turnovers TOTAL.

Prediction:
I think this is going to be a really close game. It will end in the 20s. The 49ers will win the turnover battle, but the Saints will have at least 100 more yards of offense than S.F. Both teams will have problems in the red zone, and both will be held under 100 yards running the football. But with the game on the line, Drew Brees will be able to lead the Saints down the field for a game-winning field goal.

Saints 25 49ers 23

Sunday, January 1, 2012

49ers vs. Rams II prediction

It's as simple as this: the 49ers need to beat the worst team in the NFL to get a first-round bye for the playoffs.

They will do it if they complete these three keys to the game.

1. Score a first half touchdown
The 49ers are designed to play with a lead. But San Francisco hasn't scored a touchdown in the first half in seven games. Looking forward to the playoffs, the 49ers need to get this monkey off their back. If the 49ers play a strong first half, the Rams may lay over and look toward next year.

2. Shut down Steven Jackson
This is about getting the swagger back. Marshawn Lynch broke the 49ers two impressive streaks (more than two years without a 100-yard rusher and a whole season without a touchdown).

3. Just Win Baby
It's not easy to go 13-3. Stranger things have happened than a Rams win on Sunday. Get a win, rest up, and get ready for a clash with Saints in Candlestick.

Prediction
49ers 27 Rams 7

Monday, December 26, 2011

Overrated vs. Underrated

The three most underrated teams in the NFL

Miami Dolphins
First off, the Dolphins have scored more points than they've allowed, yet they're only 5-10. I'd argue that they are the most unlucky team in the NFL, which essentially makes them underrated. Matt Moore is usually thought of as a mediocre NFL quarterback, but his QB Rating of 89.8 is 11th best in the NFL. The defense has allowed the seventh-fewest points in the NFL. This team could surprise next season in the AFC.

Carolina Panthers
I think the Panthers would have a good shot at beating any team in the first round of the playoffs. Cam Newton is only getting better as the season progresses, and the Panthers defense has allowed less than 20 points in four of their last five games.

Detroit Lions
It may seem strange to put a 10-5 team on this list, but no one is talking about the Lions making a deep run in the postseason. Detroit is inconsistent, no question, but it is also explosive. The Lions are +91 in point differential. Kevin Smith is healthy, which makes their offense as good as there is in football. The Lions are also 5-2 on the road.

Most overrated teams
Denver Broncos
After the loss to the Bills, most people are off the Tebow bandwagon, but for those who remain, it may be time to hop on a more contemporary means of transportation. The Broncos have been blown out twice in a row. Before the losing streak, they would've lost if not for a miss by San Diego kicker Nick Novak, an interception by Minnesota quarterback Christian Ponder and an epic collapse of the Chicago Bears. The Broncos may beat the hapless Chiefs on Sunday, but expect them to be blown out if they make the dance.

New York Jets
The Jets have not beat a team that currently has a winning record since Week 1. Mark Sanchez has struggled all season long, and the Jets rushing attack has been inconsistent. But what's more concerning is the Jets defense, which allows 22.9 points per game, 22nd in the NFL. It all adds up to a team that doesn't do anything above average.

Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have not beat a team that currently has a winning record since Week 2. The Dallas defense gives up big plays in the running game and the passing game. Tony Romo has had an excellent season, but I expect the 'Boys will be knocked out by the Giants, who simply are a better all-around team.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Postgame notes: 49ers edge Seahawks

Following the 49ers 19-17 triumph against the Seahawks on Saturday, I felt mixed emotions.

On the bright side, the 49ers are in prime position to secure the NFC’s second seed. I’ve stressed the importance of this many times, and as a 49ers fan I’m relieved that they are likely to secure a first-round bye.

I think all 49ers fans wanted to get the No. 2 seed because we knew that the Saints are almost impossible to beat in the Superdome. But now it’s imperative because the 49ers need the rest.

Delanie Walker and Kyle Williams suffered what appear to be brutal injuries. I’m guessing they both sustained concussions. Justin Smith left the game for a series but returned soon after.

Add Patrick Willis and Ted Ginn, who did not play against Seattle, and it’s obvious that the 49ers could use the rest.

As for the game, the Seahawks were the first team this year to run the ball on the 49ers. Marshawn Lynch was falling forward nearly every play. The 49ers were lucky to only be down by a touchdown at halftime.

The key play of the first half was the 49ers goal-line stand. On third-and-goal from the 1, the Seahawks bootlegged Jackson, and he tried to run it in. Carlos Rogers stopped him at the 1, and the Seahawks settled for a field goal.

The 49ers absolutely dominated the Seahawks in every facet in the second half. On the 49ers opening drive, Gore’s 4-yard touchdown plunge tied the game and gave San Francisco all the momentum. But soon after, the 49ers settled for two field goals deep in Seattle territory, taking a 16-10 lead. The play calling was absolutely conservative, whether Harbaugh admits it or not.

After Alex Smith was nearly intercepted by Earl Thomas in the end zone, Harbaugh never gave Smith a chance to make a play in the red zone.

Harbaugh’s field goal plan was working until Andy Lee’s punt was blocked, setting up a 4-yard rushing touchdown by Lynch.

At the time, I felt that the 49ers were incredibly unlucky, but it was a good precursor to the playoffs. The 49ers will not be able to sit on six-point leads for an entire quarter during the postseason.

The 49ers answered when Michael Crabtree caught a 41-yard pass from Alex Smith. Once again, the 49ers then went conservative, deciding to take the points and give Seattle a chance to win the game with a field goal.

This left a bad taste in my mouth. I thought Harbaugh had more trust in Smith. I thought the 49ers offense was more dynamic than the Trent Dilfer-led Ravens of the early 2000s.

I thought wrong.

The 49ers defense was able to hold on against the Seahawks, but I’m not confident it will do the same against the elite teams in the NFL.

Stats to note:
The 49ers allowed their first rushing touchdown of the season. The fewest touchdowns allowed in a season is two, so the 49ers can still break that record by keeping the Rams out of the end zone next week.
With 42 field goals, David Akers has broken the NFL record for most field goals in a season.
The 49ers have not scored a first half touchdown in seven games. In those seven games, David Akers has kicked 17 first half field goals.
Lynch (21 carries, 107 yards) ended the 49ers 36-game streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher.

Friday, December 23, 2011

49ers vs. Seahawks prediction

Marshawn Lynch has scored a touchdown in 10 straight games. The 49ers haven't allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Something has to give.

The 49ers and Seahawks square off on Saturday with playoff implications for both teams. Seattle needs to win its last two games just to have a shot at making the playoffs, whereas the 49ers would clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed with two wins.

The Seahawks have won five out of six, and much of the credit has been given to Lynch, who has at least 20 carries in all six games and 100 rushing yards in four of them. But don't forget to credit the Seattle defense, which has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in all five wins.

Alex Smith will be challenged by the crowd noise, but don't assume he'll play poorly because of it. Smith has had some of his best performances in Seattle -- a three-TD (two passing, one rushing) performance on Thursday Night Football in his second season (49ers won 24-14) and a 310-yard two-TD performance in 2009 (49ers lost 20-17).

The strength of the Seahawks defense is their front seven. You may recall in Week 1 when the 49ers beat Seattle, Frank Gore struggled to get going. Gore rushed for just 59 yards, and the 49ers as an offense had 209 yards. Fueled by two fourth-quarter special teams touchdowns by Ted Ginn, the 49ers won 33-17.

Much has changed since their first tilt, as both teams have established solid rushing attacks. So as far keys to the game go, the 49ers will need Frank Gore to outplay Marshawn Lynch. Lynch rushed for just 33 yards in the first matchup, but as mentioned before, the Seattle run game is playing at a higher level. The 49ers could use a healthy Patrick Willis, who is a game-time decision.

Secondly, the 49ers have to win the turnover battle. The 49ers have the best turnover margin in the NFL, but Seattle has +13 turnover margin in its last six games. The easiest way to create turnovers is to get ahead of the opposition and get it in third and longs, and the 49ers can do this if they shut down Lynch.

Lastly, Kyle Williams needs to have a breakout game. The 49ers have relied on Ginn's returns all year, but he is out this week. Williams will take his place, and the 49ers can't afford a gaffe like Williams had against Pittsburgh when he fumbled as a returner (he caught a huge break when a penalty erased the fumble). Williams will also be Smith's No. 2 receiver. Williams has been one of the most reliable offensive players for weeks, but this will be his first stint without Ginn, and it's likely that Braylon Edwards won't play either.

Prediction
The Seahawks don't have the offensive weapons to really threaten the 49ers suffocating defense. I have no reason to believe that Lynch will crack the 49ers defense that's stood tall against more talented backs (LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson) Thus, this game will come down to the 49ers cashing in on their opportunities and winning the turnover battle. It should be a low-scoring game, the type of game the 49ers have been thriving in all season.
49ers 16 Seahawks 10