Saints vs. 49ers analysis and prediction

Nine years ago the 49ers rallied to beat the New York Giants 39-38 in the Wild Card Round of the NFC Playoffs.

Since that day, fans at Candlestick Park haven't witnessed any postseason football.

Tomorrow, the drought will end.

The 49ers, with the NFC's top-ranked defense, will take on the Saints, with the NFL's top-ranked offense.

The 49ers allow just 14.3 points per game, and that number decreases to 10.9 when they play at home.

The Saints score 34.2 points per game, but that number decreases to 27.3 when they're on the road and 25.8 when they play on grass.

Most 49ers fans have used this stat to say that Drew Brees will struggle because he's not playing at home, and the offense will be slower because they will be playing on grass instead of turf.

There is some truth to this assertion. Brees has thrown only 17 of his 45 touchdowns on the road this year. He's also thrown 8 of his 14 interceptions on the road.

I believe the 49ers defense will provide a huge challenge to Brees and the Saints offense. But it would be very ignorant to believe that the Saints will be held under 20 points. No team has held the Saints under 20 this season, and New Orleans has averaged 44 points per game in their last four games.

I doubt that the 49ers offense will put up prolific numbers. The 49ers convert just 29 percent of their third downs and they score touchdowns only 40 percent of the time in the red zone. They will need to improve on these numbers if they want to win on Sunday.

It's impossible to predict how Alex Smith will fare in his first playoff game. Smith's yards per attempt was abysmal in his last four games, but the 49ers managed to win three of those games. One big reason why is that Smith didn't turn the ball over in that stretch.

Will Alex be able to complete a few big passes and not turn the ball over? His performance is the key to the game. I've heard at least five different ESPN analysts say, "I'm taking the Saints because the 49ers have Alex Smith." Smith still has so much to prove, and he has his first big chance to silence his critics.

Here are a few interesting stats before I make a prediction:
Drew Brees has as many touchdowns on the road as Alex Smith has touchdowns.
The Saints average more rushing yards per game than the 49ers.
In their last six home games, the 49ers average margin of victory was 20 per game.
The 49ers are +28 in turnover margin. The Saints have forced 18 turnovers TOTAL.

Prediction:
I think this is going to be a really close game. It will end in the 20s. The 49ers will win the turnover battle, but the Saints will have at least 100 more yards of offense than S.F. Both teams will have problems in the red zone, and both will be held under 100 yards running the football. But with the game on the line, Drew Brees will be able to lead the Saints down the field for a game-winning field goal.

Saints 25 49ers 23

49ers vs. Rams II prediction

It's as simple as this: the 49ers need to beat the worst team in the NFL to get a first-round bye for the playoffs.

They will do it if they complete these three keys to the game.

1. Score a first half touchdown
The 49ers are designed to play with a lead. But San Francisco hasn't scored a touchdown in the first half in seven games. Looking forward to the playoffs, the 49ers need to get this monkey off their back. If the 49ers play a strong first half, the Rams may lay over and look toward next year.

2. Shut down Steven Jackson
This is about getting the swagger back. Marshawn Lynch broke the 49ers two impressive streaks (more than two years without a 100-yard rusher and a whole season without a touchdown).

3. Just Win Baby
It's not easy to go 13-3. Stranger things have happened than a Rams win on Sunday. Get a win, rest up, and get ready for a clash with Saints in Candlestick.

Prediction
49ers 27 Rams 7