Postgame Reaction to the 49ers Ousting the Packers

Sometimes the San Francisco 49ers don't get the respect they deserve. Pundits point to their sometimes pedestrian quarterback play and dismiss them from the top-tier teams in the league. Beating the Packers in Green Bay was the ultimate respect game. And the way the 49ers handled them can't be ignored. San Francisco held Aaron Rodgers to just 6.9 yards per attempt (a stat that does not factor in the yards lost from the three sacks). In Rodgers' 15 regular season starts in 2011, he had at least 7.8 YPA in all but one game. To put it simply, the 49ers made Rodgers look average, which doesn't happen too often. In comparison, Alex Smith averaged 8.1 YPA. Add in 182 rushing yards, including 112 yards on 16 carries by Frank Gore, and the 49ers offense was in full control. Nothing about this game was particularly shocking. But even the most confident of 49ers fans must have been concerned about Green Bay's receivers getting behind safeties Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson. I know I was. But Rodgers hardly tested the back end of the secondary, and when he did, Whitner, Goldson and the 49ers cornerbacks were in perfect position.

49ers vs. Packers: 3 Keys to the Game and Prediction

Let’s just say it. This game has huge playoff ramifications. The San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers are expected to win their divisions. The top two seeds in the NFC playoffs from a year ago both made offseason acquisitions that could get them over their playoff failures and into the Super Bowl this year. Green Bay used its draft on improving its mediocre defense. Rookie pass-rusher Nick Perry is oozing with potential. If he has an Aldon Smith-like rookie season, I can’t see how anybody would have a chance against the Pack come playoff time. Dynamic wide receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham were brought to S.F. to add a spark to a passing game that fell apart against the Giants in the NFC Championship game. If Alex Smith approaches elite passing numbers with his new targets, the 49ers will be nearly unbeatable come playoff time. And there’s always a chance that the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay offense struggles to repeat last year’s incredible run. The same can be said for San Francisco’s incredible defense. But with nearly every major contributor from both teams back, hungry to make a run at the Super Bowl, I expect both of team’s dominant units to be, well, dominant again. Keys to the Game 1. Alex Smith’s Third-Down Passing The 49ers converted just 29.4 percent of third downs last year, second worst in the NFL. That percentage fell to 26.3 percent in road games. Third-down passing is Smith’s biggest weakness, and if the 49ers are to beat the Packers on Sunday or win the Super Bowl this year, he has to better. 2. Win the Turnover Battle The 49ers and Packers were the top two teams in turnover margin a year ago. Green Bay’s defense is susceptible to big plays, but it usually forces a couple of turnovers that set Aaron Rodgers up with short fields. If the 49ers can limit turnovers and force the Packers to sustain long drives, they’ll have a shot at keeping Green Bay in the low 20s. 3. Randy Moss Effect Moss could give the 49ers several new dimensions. He could be the red-zone threat that propels the offense to greater touchdown efficiency. He could grab the attention of safeties, which would give more room for Vernon Davis to operate. He even could speed right pass the Green Bay secondary and catch a long touchdown pass from Alex Smith. Or he could be a complete non-factor, like he was when he was last on the field in 2010. The 49ers had a proven formula in 2011 that lacked (a lot of) huge plays in the passing game. They could still win this game and a Super Bowl without a “No. 1” receiver. But there’s no question that a productive Moss would make the 49ers a much better football team -- a team that could win a shootout against the Packers in Lambeau Field. Conclusion I don’t expect Alex Smith to show huge improvements from last year. Sure, he has more weapons. But he’s never shown the pocket presence necessary to consistently deliver the ball down the field. For better or worse, he tends to look to his first underneath read and quickly make an accurate throw. My guess is he doesn’t utilize Moss as well as he could this week, instead opting to find Davis and his backs for several short gains. The Packers struggled to get pressure on the quarterback a year ago, but the right side of the 49ers offensive line may be due for growing pains, which could lead to a big day for Clay Matthews. With the 49ers struggling to sustain drives and lacking big plays, the defense will have to be flawless against the most explosive offense in the league. Eventually, Rodgers will find holes in the San Francisco defense, just enough holes to get a win. Green Bay 26 San Francisco 20