49ers vs. Seahawks prediction

Marshawn Lynch has scored a touchdown in 10 straight games. The 49ers haven't allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Something has to give.

The 49ers and Seahawks square off on Saturday with playoff implications for both teams. Seattle needs to win its last two games just to have a shot at making the playoffs, whereas the 49ers would clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed with two wins.

The Seahawks have won five out of six, and much of the credit has been given to Lynch, who has at least 20 carries in all six games and 100 rushing yards in four of them. But don't forget to credit the Seattle defense, which has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in all five wins.

Alex Smith will be challenged by the crowd noise, but don't assume he'll play poorly because of it. Smith has had some of his best performances in Seattle -- a three-TD (two passing, one rushing) performance on Thursday Night Football in his second season (49ers won 24-14) and a 310-yard two-TD performance in 2009 (49ers lost 20-17).

The strength of the Seahawks defense is their front seven. You may recall in Week 1 when the 49ers beat Seattle, Frank Gore struggled to get going. Gore rushed for just 59 yards, and the 49ers as an offense had 209 yards. Fueled by two fourth-quarter special teams touchdowns by Ted Ginn, the 49ers won 33-17.

Much has changed since their first tilt, as both teams have established solid rushing attacks. So as far keys to the game go, the 49ers will need Frank Gore to outplay Marshawn Lynch. Lynch rushed for just 33 yards in the first matchup, but as mentioned before, the Seattle run game is playing at a higher level. The 49ers could use a healthy Patrick Willis, who is a game-time decision.

Secondly, the 49ers have to win the turnover battle. The 49ers have the best turnover margin in the NFL, but Seattle has +13 turnover margin in its last six games. The easiest way to create turnovers is to get ahead of the opposition and get it in third and longs, and the 49ers can do this if they shut down Lynch.

Lastly, Kyle Williams needs to have a breakout game. The 49ers have relied on Ginn's returns all year, but he is out this week. Williams will take his place, and the 49ers can't afford a gaffe like Williams had against Pittsburgh when he fumbled as a returner (he caught a huge break when a penalty erased the fumble). Williams will also be Smith's No. 2 receiver. Williams has been one of the most reliable offensive players for weeks, but this will be his first stint without Ginn, and it's likely that Braylon Edwards won't play either.

Prediction
The Seahawks don't have the offensive weapons to really threaten the 49ers suffocating defense. I have no reason to believe that Lynch will crack the 49ers defense that's stood tall against more talented backs (LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson) Thus, this game will come down to the 49ers cashing in on their opportunities and winning the turnover battle. It should be a low-scoring game, the type of game the 49ers have been thriving in all season.
49ers 16 Seahawks 10