49ers vs. Cardinals prediction

The 49ers dominated the Cardinals en route to a 23-7 win just three weeks ago. The rematch could prove to be a much closer game.

This time, Patrick Willis is not expected to play. Meanwhile, Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb is expected to play.

Kolb is by no means an elite quarterback, but he is by far the best quarterback on the Arizona roster. Kolb's 7.8 yards per attempt average is the best on the Cardinals and better than Alex Smith's 7.4 average.

Kolb doesn't have particularly great arm strength, but for whatever reason, he actually creates a bunch of big plays. Kolb has completed a pass of at least 47 yards in all but two games this year, including a screen pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling that led to a catch and run of 52 yards and a touchdown to beat the Cowboys in overtime a week ago. The only way the Cardinals have a chance to beat the 49ers is through big plays. So the first key is to LIMIT BIG PLAYS.

Will the loss of Patrick Willis hurt the 49ers run defense? Of course. How much? We'll find out. Most 49ers fans would say that San Francisco shut down Steven Jackson last week after Willis went down with an injury. This week, the Cardinals had time to game plan for the Willis-less Niners. Will the Cards find a way to expose Larry Grant? Will NaVorro Bowman play worse without his linebacking mate? The second key is for the 49ers to KEEP BEANIE UNDER 70 YARDS.

Frank Gore has rushed for 200 yards in his last four games. The 49ers have found a way to win three of them, but I believe if this trend continues, San Francisco will be in trouble. On the road, Alex Smith has had three mediocre performances in a row. He's going to need a running game to open the passing game. So the third key is for FRANK GORE AND CO. TO AVERAGE AT LEAST FOUR YARDS PER CARRY.

I see this game being a defensive affair. If the 49ers are inefficient in the red zone (like they've been all year), then Arizona will hang around. I think the 49ers disciplined defense will be just enough to get them their 11th win.

49ers 19 Cardinals 13