Monday, November 28, 2011

Predicting the playoff field

NFC
1. Green Bay Packers 16-0
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 12-4
4. Dallas Cowboys 11-5
5. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
6. Chicago Bears 10-6

- I believe the Packers are going to go undefeated in the regular season. But if they lose a game before Week 17, I wouldn't be surprised if the Detroit Lions handed them their second loss in the last week of the season. So if you are a Lions fan, root against the Packers just so they will take it easy on you in Week 17.

- The Atlanta Falcons are playing well and have a friendly schedule. They also have a head to head victory against the Lions, giving them the edge if there is a tie for the last spot.

- Caleb Hanie was awful in his first game as starting quarterback of the Bears. Yet with games remaining against the Chiefs, Seahawks and Vikings, the Bears should be able to win at least three more games.

- This means I have the Lions out, but I could easily see them getting in if they beat a shorthanded Packers team in Week 17.

- The only other team worthy of mention is the New York Giants. With their brutal schedule, winning more than 9 seems like too much to ask.

AFC
1. Baltimore Ravens 13-3
2. New England Patriots 13-3
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Oakland Raiders 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

- It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the AFC's three best teams (Ravens, Patriots, Steelers) win out. The Ravens have been the shakiest road team and have three road games left, but with home-field advantage for the playoffs at stake, I think the Ravens will take care of business. The Patriots and Steelers seem like locks for at least 12 wins.

- Who had the Raiders and Broncos as the top two AFC West contenders? Both teams are inconsistent. I think the Raiders are a slightly better team at this point so I'll give them the nod.

- The last spot goes to the Bengals. If they can beat the Rams and Cardinals, they'd probably need just one more win to make the playoffs. But you never know how a rookie quarterback will respond to the pressure of December football. Still, I'll take them for now, but remember that the Broncos have the head to head tiebreaker against them.

- The Titans would likely have to win out to overtake the Texans in the AFC South or the Bengals for the last spot in the rankings. I don't think they'll even get close, especially with the Saints still on their schedule.

- This leaves the Jets, who would have the tiebreaker over nobody. They would likely have to win out to make the playoffs. Fortunately, they only have one game left against a team with an over .500 record (Giants). I say they find a way to lose one game and miss out on the playoffs.

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