Wednesday, March 11, 2009

NL West Predictions

The San Francisco Giants had an eventful offseason. They signed longtime nemesis Randy Johnson and relief pitchers Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt to shore the pitching staff. They also signed Edgar Renteria to a lucrative contract of 2 years, 18 million dollars and Juan Uribe. But, they also tried to sign top free agents CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez. CC Sabathia quickly took the money and fame as he signed with the New York Yankees. But Ramirez was on the market up until just last week. His demands of at least 2 years and 45 million dollars scared off every team but two -- the Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Giants decided to keep what they have, and the day Ramirez was signed by the Dodgers might have been the turning point of the entire season.

I fully believed that if Ramirez did not sign with a team in the West division, then the Giants were the favorites. Or at least they would have been in a two team race with the Diamondbacks. Had the Giants signed Ramirez, they would easily won the division. But, the Dodgers now are contenders as well, and I predict their lineup will one of the best in the NL.

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 83-79
As said before, this team has a dangerous lineup. Youngsters Kemp, Loney, Martin and Ethier are all a season more experienced and dangerous. Furcal is the best shortstop in the NL West when healthy, and Ramirez (shown above) is the X-Factor. Despite spotty starting pitching after Billingsley and Kuroda, and a shaky bullpen, the Dodgers should be able to eek out a division title.

2. Arizona Diamonbacks 82-80
Two years ago, the Diamondbacks went to the NLCS. Last year, they added Adam Dunn at the trade deadline, yet they took a huge step back and missed the playoffs. This year there is no Adam Dunn and Orlando Hudson. They lost Randy Johnson as well. Their lineup is filled with youngsters who struggle with plate discipline. If their young lineup can develop and their young pitchers give quality innings, then they can be scary. But, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren wont be enough to get them past the Dodgers.

3. San Francisco Giants 79-83
Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez. That starting five has past dominance and future Cy Youngs written all over it. Of course, the lineup has no power and the bullpen can be shaky at times. But, if Zito can get back to top form and if Pablo Sandoval can be a potent run producer, this team will win the division. But, I'm predicting they will both falter, and the Giants will fall just short.

4. The Colorado Rockies 65-97
This team struggled last year and then lost Matt Holiday in the offseason. Expect a tough season, but look for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to have a bounce back year.

5.The San Diego Paders 64-98
The Padres lineup is terrible after Gonzalez and Giles. Expect the Padres to trade 2007 Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy this season and to continue to rebuild their roster.

1 comment:

  1. Very insightful prediction. I agree with you more or less on the standings. However, I am bias and will put myself on record, stating that the Giants will overcome all odds and win the division behind the excellent pitching rotation. Manny Ramirez serves as a cancer to the team and stunts the growth of the youngsters. Billingsley does not return to his 2008 form and wins a mediocre 8 games. Injuries will also plague the team. The Diamondbacks have a solid rotation but cannot match the dominance of Tiny Tim and Matthew Cain. Cain's luck changes as he makes a strong bid for the Cy Young. It was reported that he returned to spring training in the best shape of his life. The walks go down, Pabi Sandoval gives him the necessary run support and Cain wins 17 games. Renteria falters under contract pressures and hit .268 with 8 homeruns. Ishikawa beats out all competition for the first base position and bats 5th in the lineup, earning a .281 average with 16 homeruns.

    I am a joke. :]

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