Friday, January 13, 2012

Saints vs. 49ers analysis and prediction

Nine years ago the 49ers rallied to beat the New York Giants 39-38 in the Wild Card Round of the NFC Playoffs.

Since that day, fans at Candlestick Park haven't witnessed any postseason football.

Tomorrow, the drought will end.

The 49ers, with the NFC's top-ranked defense, will take on the Saints, with the NFL's top-ranked offense.

The 49ers allow just 14.3 points per game, and that number decreases to 10.9 when they play at home.

The Saints score 34.2 points per game, but that number decreases to 27.3 when they're on the road and 25.8 when they play on grass.

Most 49ers fans have used this stat to say that Drew Brees will struggle because he's not playing at home, and the offense will be slower because they will be playing on grass instead of turf.

There is some truth to this assertion. Brees has thrown only 17 of his 45 touchdowns on the road this year. He's also thrown 8 of his 14 interceptions on the road.

I believe the 49ers defense will provide a huge challenge to Brees and the Saints offense. But it would be very ignorant to believe that the Saints will be held under 20 points. No team has held the Saints under 20 this season, and New Orleans has averaged 44 points per game in their last four games.

I doubt that the 49ers offense will put up prolific numbers. The 49ers convert just 29 percent of their third downs and they score touchdowns only 40 percent of the time in the red zone. They will need to improve on these numbers if they want to win on Sunday.

It's impossible to predict how Alex Smith will fare in his first playoff game. Smith's yards per attempt was abysmal in his last four games, but the 49ers managed to win three of those games. One big reason why is that Smith didn't turn the ball over in that stretch.

Will Alex be able to complete a few big passes and not turn the ball over? His performance is the key to the game. I've heard at least five different ESPN analysts say, "I'm taking the Saints because the 49ers have Alex Smith." Smith still has so much to prove, and he has his first big chance to silence his critics.

Here are a few interesting stats before I make a prediction:
Drew Brees has as many touchdowns on the road as Alex Smith has touchdowns.
The Saints average more rushing yards per game than the 49ers.
In their last six home games, the 49ers average margin of victory was 20 per game.
The 49ers are +28 in turnover margin. The Saints have forced 18 turnovers TOTAL.

Prediction:
I think this is going to be a really close game. It will end in the 20s. The 49ers will win the turnover battle, but the Saints will have at least 100 more yards of offense than S.F. Both teams will have problems in the red zone, and both will be held under 100 yards running the football. But with the game on the line, Drew Brees will be able to lead the Saints down the field for a game-winning field goal.

Saints 25 49ers 23

Sunday, January 1, 2012

49ers vs. Rams II prediction

It's as simple as this: the 49ers need to beat the worst team in the NFL to get a first-round bye for the playoffs.

They will do it if they complete these three keys to the game.

1. Score a first half touchdown
The 49ers are designed to play with a lead. But San Francisco hasn't scored a touchdown in the first half in seven games. Looking forward to the playoffs, the 49ers need to get this monkey off their back. If the 49ers play a strong first half, the Rams may lay over and look toward next year.

2. Shut down Steven Jackson
This is about getting the swagger back. Marshawn Lynch broke the 49ers two impressive streaks (more than two years without a 100-yard rusher and a whole season without a touchdown).

3. Just Win Baby
It's not easy to go 13-3. Stranger things have happened than a Rams win on Sunday. Get a win, rest up, and get ready for a clash with Saints in Candlestick.

Prediction
49ers 27 Rams 7

Monday, December 26, 2011

Overrated vs. Underrated

The three most underrated teams in the NFL

Miami Dolphins
First off, the Dolphins have scored more points than they've allowed, yet they're only 5-10. I'd argue that they are the most unlucky team in the NFL, which essentially makes them underrated. Matt Moore is usually thought of as a mediocre NFL quarterback, but his QB Rating of 89.8 is 11th best in the NFL. The defense has allowed the seventh-fewest points in the NFL. This team could surprise next season in the AFC.

Carolina Panthers
I think the Panthers would have a good shot at beating any team in the first round of the playoffs. Cam Newton is only getting better as the season progresses, and the Panthers defense has allowed less than 20 points in four of their last five games.

Detroit Lions
It may seem strange to put a 10-5 team on this list, but no one is talking about the Lions making a deep run in the postseason. Detroit is inconsistent, no question, but it is also explosive. The Lions are +91 in point differential. Kevin Smith is healthy, which makes their offense as good as there is in football. The Lions are also 5-2 on the road.

Most overrated teams
Denver Broncos
After the loss to the Bills, most people are off the Tebow bandwagon, but for those who remain, it may be time to hop on a more contemporary means of transportation. The Broncos have been blown out twice in a row. Before the losing streak, they would've lost if not for a miss by San Diego kicker Nick Novak, an interception by Minnesota quarterback Christian Ponder and an epic collapse of the Chicago Bears. The Broncos may beat the hapless Chiefs on Sunday, but expect them to be blown out if they make the dance.

New York Jets
The Jets have not beat a team that currently has a winning record since Week 1. Mark Sanchez has struggled all season long, and the Jets rushing attack has been inconsistent. But what's more concerning is the Jets defense, which allows 22.9 points per game, 22nd in the NFL. It all adds up to a team that doesn't do anything above average.

Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have not beat a team that currently has a winning record since Week 2. The Dallas defense gives up big plays in the running game and the passing game. Tony Romo has had an excellent season, but I expect the 'Boys will be knocked out by the Giants, who simply are a better all-around team.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Postgame notes: 49ers edge Seahawks

Following the 49ers 19-17 triumph against the Seahawks on Saturday, I felt mixed emotions.

On the bright side, the 49ers are in prime position to secure the NFC’s second seed. I’ve stressed the importance of this many times, and as a 49ers fan I’m relieved that they are likely to secure a first-round bye.

I think all 49ers fans wanted to get the No. 2 seed because we knew that the Saints are almost impossible to beat in the Superdome. But now it’s imperative because the 49ers need the rest.

Delanie Walker and Kyle Williams suffered what appear to be brutal injuries. I’m guessing they both sustained concussions. Justin Smith left the game for a series but returned soon after.

Add Patrick Willis and Ted Ginn, who did not play against Seattle, and it’s obvious that the 49ers could use the rest.

As for the game, the Seahawks were the first team this year to run the ball on the 49ers. Marshawn Lynch was falling forward nearly every play. The 49ers were lucky to only be down by a touchdown at halftime.

The key play of the first half was the 49ers goal-line stand. On third-and-goal from the 1, the Seahawks bootlegged Jackson, and he tried to run it in. Carlos Rogers stopped him at the 1, and the Seahawks settled for a field goal.

The 49ers absolutely dominated the Seahawks in every facet in the second half. On the 49ers opening drive, Gore’s 4-yard touchdown plunge tied the game and gave San Francisco all the momentum. But soon after, the 49ers settled for two field goals deep in Seattle territory, taking a 16-10 lead. The play calling was absolutely conservative, whether Harbaugh admits it or not.

After Alex Smith was nearly intercepted by Earl Thomas in the end zone, Harbaugh never gave Smith a chance to make a play in the red zone.

Harbaugh’s field goal plan was working until Andy Lee’s punt was blocked, setting up a 4-yard rushing touchdown by Lynch.

At the time, I felt that the 49ers were incredibly unlucky, but it was a good precursor to the playoffs. The 49ers will not be able to sit on six-point leads for an entire quarter during the postseason.

The 49ers answered when Michael Crabtree caught a 41-yard pass from Alex Smith. Once again, the 49ers then went conservative, deciding to take the points and give Seattle a chance to win the game with a field goal.

This left a bad taste in my mouth. I thought Harbaugh had more trust in Smith. I thought the 49ers offense was more dynamic than the Trent Dilfer-led Ravens of the early 2000s.

I thought wrong.

The 49ers defense was able to hold on against the Seahawks, but I’m not confident it will do the same against the elite teams in the NFL.

Stats to note:
The 49ers allowed their first rushing touchdown of the season. The fewest touchdowns allowed in a season is two, so the 49ers can still break that record by keeping the Rams out of the end zone next week.
With 42 field goals, David Akers has broken the NFL record for most field goals in a season.
The 49ers have not scored a first half touchdown in seven games. In those seven games, David Akers has kicked 17 first half field goals.
Lynch (21 carries, 107 yards) ended the 49ers 36-game streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher.

Friday, December 23, 2011

49ers vs. Seahawks prediction

Marshawn Lynch has scored a touchdown in 10 straight games. The 49ers haven't allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Something has to give.

The 49ers and Seahawks square off on Saturday with playoff implications for both teams. Seattle needs to win its last two games just to have a shot at making the playoffs, whereas the 49ers would clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed with two wins.

The Seahawks have won five out of six, and much of the credit has been given to Lynch, who has at least 20 carries in all six games and 100 rushing yards in four of them. But don't forget to credit the Seattle defense, which has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in all five wins.

Alex Smith will be challenged by the crowd noise, but don't assume he'll play poorly because of it. Smith has had some of his best performances in Seattle -- a three-TD (two passing, one rushing) performance on Thursday Night Football in his second season (49ers won 24-14) and a 310-yard two-TD performance in 2009 (49ers lost 20-17).

The strength of the Seahawks defense is their front seven. You may recall in Week 1 when the 49ers beat Seattle, Frank Gore struggled to get going. Gore rushed for just 59 yards, and the 49ers as an offense had 209 yards. Fueled by two fourth-quarter special teams touchdowns by Ted Ginn, the 49ers won 33-17.

Much has changed since their first tilt, as both teams have established solid rushing attacks. So as far keys to the game go, the 49ers will need Frank Gore to outplay Marshawn Lynch. Lynch rushed for just 33 yards in the first matchup, but as mentioned before, the Seattle run game is playing at a higher level. The 49ers could use a healthy Patrick Willis, who is a game-time decision.

Secondly, the 49ers have to win the turnover battle. The 49ers have the best turnover margin in the NFL, but Seattle has +13 turnover margin in its last six games. The easiest way to create turnovers is to get ahead of the opposition and get it in third and longs, and the 49ers can do this if they shut down Lynch.

Lastly, Kyle Williams needs to have a breakout game. The 49ers have relied on Ginn's returns all year, but he is out this week. Williams will take his place, and the 49ers can't afford a gaffe like Williams had against Pittsburgh when he fumbled as a returner (he caught a huge break when a penalty erased the fumble). Williams will also be Smith's No. 2 receiver. Williams has been one of the most reliable offensive players for weeks, but this will be his first stint without Ginn, and it's likely that Braylon Edwards won't play either.

Prediction
The Seahawks don't have the offensive weapons to really threaten the 49ers suffocating defense. I have no reason to believe that Lynch will crack the 49ers defense that's stood tall against more talented backs (LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson) Thus, this game will come down to the 49ers cashing in on their opportunities and winning the turnover battle. It should be a low-scoring game, the type of game the 49ers have been thriving in all season.
49ers 16 Seahawks 10

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

NFL Playoff Picture heading into Week 16

Projected NFC Standings
1. Green Bay Packers 15-1
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 13-3
4. Dallas Cowboys 9-7
5. Atlanta Falcons 10-6
6. Detroit Lions 10-6

- I have a strong urge to put the Eagles as the the division winner of the NFC East. They would need two wins, a New York Giants loss to the Jets and a Giants win against the Cowboys. This means if the Giants beat the Jets on Saturday, the Eagles will have nothing to play for. I'm guessing that the Jets do beat the Giants, and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, but the 'Boys then beat the Giants to win the division on the last day of the regular season (this would leave the standings as Dallas 9-7, Philadelphia 8-8, NYG 7-9, Washington 6-10)

Projected AFC Standings
1. New England Patriots 13-3
2. Baltimore Ravens 12-4
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Denver Broncos 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. New York Jets 10-6

- No big surprises here. The Jets currently own the tiebreaker over the Bengals if both teams finish 10-6. I have the Bengals losing to the Ravens in Week 17 anyway. The Jets are no shoe-in to win their last two games (vs. Giants, @ Miami), but I say they edge both teams and get in. Rex Ryan has a history of sneaking into the playoffs, why would this year be any different? If the Jets do get in, it's entirely possible that the second round of the AFC playoffs is identical to last year's (NYJ @ New England, (Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh).

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Postgame notes: 49ers power past Steelers

Prior to Monday Night's kickoff, dissenters said the 49ers hadn't beat anybody good and were consequently overrated.

Come Tuesday morning, there was a new excuse:

"If Big Ben was not injured, then the Steelers would've beat the 49ers."

So it goes as a 2011 49ers fan.

Whether the 49ers are getting the respect they deserve is an argument for another time, but nobody can take away their dominating 20-3 victory against Pittsburgh on Monday.

If San Francisco (11-3) wins its final two regular season games, it secures a bye in the first round of the playoffs.

The injury status of Joe Staley, Ted Ginn and Patrick Willis continues to be up in the air. In other words, the 49ers would benefit immensely from a bye.

That's what made this win so important, and that's what makes the matchup against Seattle on Saturday even more important.

The Steelers could not block Aldon Smith, who now leads all rookies in sacks with 13. You can thank Jim Tomsula for winning his lone game as head coach for the selection of Aldon Smith. On draft day, most 49ers fans wanted Patrick Peterson, but he was snatched two spots ahead where the 49ers would have been picking had they lost Week 17 last year (end of mini-tangent).

Suffice to say, Aldon may be the dominant pass rusher that this defense needed to become the best in the NFC.

Before the 49ers beat the Steelers, there was a perception that good passing teams would be able to score on the 49ers defense.

But if Aldon can repeat this performance against the Packers (who just gave up three sacks to Tamba Hali) and/or the Saints in the playoffs, then maybe the 49ers DO indeed have a chance at winning it all.

It's hard for me to wrap my head around this idea. The 49ers could win the Super Bowl.

After all, they have the best turnover margin, the best field position differential, the best scoring defense and the coach of the year.

Stats to note:
The 49ers have won six straight home games, winning by a combined score of 164-43.
The Saints finished 5-3 on the road this year. Of their final 10 games, one was played on grass (22-17 W @ Tennessee).
David Akers now needs three field goals to break the single-season record.