Projected NFC Standings
1. Green Bay Packers 15-1
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 13-3
4. Dallas Cowboys 9-7
5. Atlanta Falcons 10-6
6. Detroit Lions 10-6
- I have a strong urge to put the Eagles as the the division winner of the NFC East. They would need two wins, a New York Giants loss to the Jets and a Giants win against the Cowboys. This means if the Giants beat the Jets on Saturday, the Eagles will have nothing to play for. I'm guessing that the Jets do beat the Giants, and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, but the 'Boys then beat the Giants to win the division on the last day of the regular season (this would leave the standings as Dallas 9-7, Philadelphia 8-8, NYG 7-9, Washington 6-10)
Projected AFC Standings
1. New England Patriots 13-3
2. Baltimore Ravens 12-4
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Denver Broncos 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. New York Jets 10-6
- No big surprises here. The Jets currently own the tiebreaker over the Bengals if both teams finish 10-6. I have the Bengals losing to the Ravens in Week 17 anyway. The Jets are no shoe-in to win their last two games (vs. Giants, @ Miami), but I say they edge both teams and get in. Rex Ryan has a history of sneaking into the playoffs, why would this year be any different? If the Jets do get in, it's entirely possible that the second round of the AFC playoffs is identical to last year's (NYJ @ New England, (Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh).
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Postgame notes: 49ers power past Steelers
Prior to Monday Night's kickoff, dissenters said the 49ers hadn't beat anybody good and were consequently overrated.
Come Tuesday morning, there was a new excuse:
"If Big Ben was not injured, then the Steelers would've beat the 49ers."
So it goes as a 2011 49ers fan.
Whether the 49ers are getting the respect they deserve is an argument for another time, but nobody can take away their dominating 20-3 victory against Pittsburgh on Monday.
If San Francisco (11-3) wins its final two regular season games, it secures a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
The injury status of Joe Staley, Ted Ginn and Patrick Willis continues to be up in the air. In other words, the 49ers would benefit immensely from a bye.
That's what made this win so important, and that's what makes the matchup against Seattle on Saturday even more important.
The Steelers could not block Aldon Smith, who now leads all rookies in sacks with 13. You can thank Jim Tomsula for winning his lone game as head coach for the selection of Aldon Smith. On draft day, most 49ers fans wanted Patrick Peterson, but he was snatched two spots ahead where the 49ers would have been picking had they lost Week 17 last year (end of mini-tangent).
Suffice to say, Aldon may be the dominant pass rusher that this defense needed to become the best in the NFC.
Before the 49ers beat the Steelers, there was a perception that good passing teams would be able to score on the 49ers defense.
But if Aldon can repeat this performance against the Packers (who just gave up three sacks to Tamba Hali) and/or the Saints in the playoffs, then maybe the 49ers DO indeed have a chance at winning it all.
It's hard for me to wrap my head around this idea. The 49ers could win the Super Bowl.
After all, they have the best turnover margin, the best field position differential, the best scoring defense and the coach of the year.
Stats to note:
The 49ers have won six straight home games, winning by a combined score of 164-43.
The Saints finished 5-3 on the road this year. Of their final 10 games, one was played on grass (22-17 W @ Tennessee).
David Akers now needs three field goals to break the single-season record.
Come Tuesday morning, there was a new excuse:
"If Big Ben was not injured, then the Steelers would've beat the 49ers."
So it goes as a 2011 49ers fan.
Whether the 49ers are getting the respect they deserve is an argument for another time, but nobody can take away their dominating 20-3 victory against Pittsburgh on Monday.
If San Francisco (11-3) wins its final two regular season games, it secures a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
The injury status of Joe Staley, Ted Ginn and Patrick Willis continues to be up in the air. In other words, the 49ers would benefit immensely from a bye.
That's what made this win so important, and that's what makes the matchup against Seattle on Saturday even more important.
The Steelers could not block Aldon Smith, who now leads all rookies in sacks with 13. You can thank Jim Tomsula for winning his lone game as head coach for the selection of Aldon Smith. On draft day, most 49ers fans wanted Patrick Peterson, but he was snatched two spots ahead where the 49ers would have been picking had they lost Week 17 last year (end of mini-tangent).
Suffice to say, Aldon may be the dominant pass rusher that this defense needed to become the best in the NFC.
Before the 49ers beat the Steelers, there was a perception that good passing teams would be able to score on the 49ers defense.
But if Aldon can repeat this performance against the Packers (who just gave up three sacks to Tamba Hali) and/or the Saints in the playoffs, then maybe the 49ers DO indeed have a chance at winning it all.
It's hard for me to wrap my head around this idea. The 49ers could win the Super Bowl.
After all, they have the best turnover margin, the best field position differential, the best scoring defense and the coach of the year.
Stats to note:
The 49ers have won six straight home games, winning by a combined score of 164-43.
The Saints finished 5-3 on the road this year. Of their final 10 games, one was played on grass (22-17 W @ Tennessee).
David Akers now needs three field goals to break the single-season record.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Postgame notes: Cardinals edge 49ers
Every team in the NFL (sans the Packers) has lost a game that they should've won. Even the good teams (sans the Packers again) have found a way to drop a game against an inferior opponent.
The Patriots lost to the 5-8 Bills. The Ravens lost to the Seahawks and Jaguars. The Saints lost to the Rams...
So first off, the 49ers were due for something like this to happen.
A few things we learned:
Lesson No. 1: Never take a win for granted.
Lesson No. 2: Backup quarterbacks can and will beat you if you give up big plays and don't tackle.
Lesson No. 3: Settling for field goals will cost you in the end.
So now that that's out of the way, let's try to explain what happened. On the Cardinals first TD, the Niners were not in the right position, allowing Early Doucet to score a 60-yard touchdown.
Over the course of a season, these things happen. I was willing to give the 49ers a pass for the blown coverage.
The Cardinals second TD was an amazing play by Larry Fitzgerald. He kicked Goldson in the air as he caught the ball at its highest point. Goldson was injured on the play, allowing Fitzgerald to walk into the end zone.
The last TD drive was set up by a Fitzgerald 50-yard catch and run in which he broke several tackles in the 49ers secondary. The Cardinals cashed in with a TD catch by Andre Roberts.
So the 49ers were in poor positions and didn't tackle well on the three big plays. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on what happens), the SF secondary will have a chance at redemption against the equally talented receiving corps of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But once again, as I type about the failures of the defense, I think to myself, the unit forced three turnovers and seven punts. All things considered, it was a decent performance.
The offense was atrocious. The early injury to Joe Staley didn't help, but excuses aside, the offense is not clicking. The Niners were 0-3 in the red zone, with the most frustrating sequence coming after Ted Ginn's 52-yard punt return to the Cardinals 4-yard.
The ugliest stat: 3 for 17 on third downs. Credit the Niners defense and special teams for great field position. Without it, the Niners easily could have been shut out in this game.
We all would have liked to see Frank Gore have more than 10 carries, especially when he was averaging more than seven yards a pop. Gore would've had a lot more carries if the Niners could have sustained more drives.
The Niners averaged just 3.7 yards per play, another awful stat. Five sacks contributed to this total.
Anyways, next up are the 10-3 Steelers. My early guess is that Ben Roethlisberger will play. He won't be 100 percent, but who is at this point? The Niners defense tends to play better at home, and they will have to be at their best against Big Ben if they want to get their 11th win.
Stats to note:
This was just the second time the 49ers have allowed three touchdowns in a game this season. The other time was against the Cowboys in Week 2.
David Akers needs five field goals to break Neil Rackers's all-time record of 40 field goals in one season.
The Patriots lost to the 5-8 Bills. The Ravens lost to the Seahawks and Jaguars. The Saints lost to the Rams...
So first off, the 49ers were due for something like this to happen.
A few things we learned:
Lesson No. 1: Never take a win for granted.
Lesson No. 2: Backup quarterbacks can and will beat you if you give up big plays and don't tackle.
Lesson No. 3: Settling for field goals will cost you in the end.
So now that that's out of the way, let's try to explain what happened. On the Cardinals first TD, the Niners were not in the right position, allowing Early Doucet to score a 60-yard touchdown.
Over the course of a season, these things happen. I was willing to give the 49ers a pass for the blown coverage.
The Cardinals second TD was an amazing play by Larry Fitzgerald. He kicked Goldson in the air as he caught the ball at its highest point. Goldson was injured on the play, allowing Fitzgerald to walk into the end zone.
The last TD drive was set up by a Fitzgerald 50-yard catch and run in which he broke several tackles in the 49ers secondary. The Cardinals cashed in with a TD catch by Andre Roberts.
So the 49ers were in poor positions and didn't tackle well on the three big plays. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on what happens), the SF secondary will have a chance at redemption against the equally talented receiving corps of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But once again, as I type about the failures of the defense, I think to myself, the unit forced three turnovers and seven punts. All things considered, it was a decent performance.
The offense was atrocious. The early injury to Joe Staley didn't help, but excuses aside, the offense is not clicking. The Niners were 0-3 in the red zone, with the most frustrating sequence coming after Ted Ginn's 52-yard punt return to the Cardinals 4-yard.
The ugliest stat: 3 for 17 on third downs. Credit the Niners defense and special teams for great field position. Without it, the Niners easily could have been shut out in this game.
We all would have liked to see Frank Gore have more than 10 carries, especially when he was averaging more than seven yards a pop. Gore would've had a lot more carries if the Niners could have sustained more drives.
The Niners averaged just 3.7 yards per play, another awful stat. Five sacks contributed to this total.
Anyways, next up are the 10-3 Steelers. My early guess is that Ben Roethlisberger will play. He won't be 100 percent, but who is at this point? The Niners defense tends to play better at home, and they will have to be at their best against Big Ben if they want to get their 11th win.
Stats to note:
This was just the second time the 49ers have allowed three touchdowns in a game this season. The other time was against the Cowboys in Week 2.
David Akers needs five field goals to break Neil Rackers's all-time record of 40 field goals in one season.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
49ers vs. Cardinals prediction
The 49ers dominated the Cardinals en route to a 23-7 win just three weeks ago. The rematch could prove to be a much closer game.
This time, Patrick Willis is not expected to play. Meanwhile, Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb is expected to play.
Kolb is by no means an elite quarterback, but he is by far the best quarterback on the Arizona roster. Kolb's 7.8 yards per attempt average is the best on the Cardinals and better than Alex Smith's 7.4 average.
Kolb doesn't have particularly great arm strength, but for whatever reason, he actually creates a bunch of big plays. Kolb has completed a pass of at least 47 yards in all but two games this year, including a screen pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling that led to a catch and run of 52 yards and a touchdown to beat the Cowboys in overtime a week ago. The only way the Cardinals have a chance to beat the 49ers is through big plays. So the first key is to LIMIT BIG PLAYS.
Will the loss of Patrick Willis hurt the 49ers run defense? Of course. How much? We'll find out. Most 49ers fans would say that San Francisco shut down Steven Jackson last week after Willis went down with an injury. This week, the Cardinals had time to game plan for the Willis-less Niners. Will the Cards find a way to expose Larry Grant? Will NaVorro Bowman play worse without his linebacking mate? The second key is for the 49ers to KEEP BEANIE UNDER 70 YARDS.
Frank Gore has rushed for 200 yards in his last four games. The 49ers have found a way to win three of them, but I believe if this trend continues, San Francisco will be in trouble. On the road, Alex Smith has had three mediocre performances in a row. He's going to need a running game to open the passing game. So the third key is for FRANK GORE AND CO. TO AVERAGE AT LEAST FOUR YARDS PER CARRY.
I see this game being a defensive affair. If the 49ers are inefficient in the red zone (like they've been all year), then Arizona will hang around. I think the 49ers disciplined defense will be just enough to get them their 11th win.
49ers 19 Cardinals 13
This time, Patrick Willis is not expected to play. Meanwhile, Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb is expected to play.
Kolb is by no means an elite quarterback, but he is by far the best quarterback on the Arizona roster. Kolb's 7.8 yards per attempt average is the best on the Cardinals and better than Alex Smith's 7.4 average.
Kolb doesn't have particularly great arm strength, but for whatever reason, he actually creates a bunch of big plays. Kolb has completed a pass of at least 47 yards in all but two games this year, including a screen pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling that led to a catch and run of 52 yards and a touchdown to beat the Cowboys in overtime a week ago. The only way the Cardinals have a chance to beat the 49ers is through big plays. So the first key is to LIMIT BIG PLAYS.
Will the loss of Patrick Willis hurt the 49ers run defense? Of course. How much? We'll find out. Most 49ers fans would say that San Francisco shut down Steven Jackson last week after Willis went down with an injury. This week, the Cardinals had time to game plan for the Willis-less Niners. Will the Cards find a way to expose Larry Grant? Will NaVorro Bowman play worse without his linebacking mate? The second key is for the 49ers to KEEP BEANIE UNDER 70 YARDS.
Frank Gore has rushed for 200 yards in his last four games. The 49ers have found a way to win three of them, but I believe if this trend continues, San Francisco will be in trouble. On the road, Alex Smith has had three mediocre performances in a row. He's going to need a running game to open the passing game. So the third key is for FRANK GORE AND CO. TO AVERAGE AT LEAST FOUR YARDS PER CARRY.
I see this game being a defensive affair. If the 49ers are inefficient in the red zone (like they've been all year), then Arizona will hang around. I think the 49ers disciplined defense will be just enough to get them their 11th win.
49ers 19 Cardinals 13
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Predicting the NFC playoff field
1. Green Bay Packers
Currently 12-0
Remaining schedule vs. Oak., @ KC, vs. Chi., vs. Det.
Projected finish 16-0
I'd be shocked if the Packers lost a regular season game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Currently 10-2
Remaining schedule @ Arz., vs. Pitt., @ Sea., @ Stl.
Projected finish 13-3
The 49ers will clinch the second seed with three more wins.
3. New Orleans Saints
Currently 9-3
Remaining schedule @ Ten., @ Min., vs. Atl., vs. Car.
Projected finish 12-4
New Orleans needs three more wins to clinch the NFC South.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule vs. NYG, @ Tampa, vs. Phi., @ NYG
Projected finish 10-6
Dallas gets the win this Sunday, essentially clinching the division.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Car., vs. Jack., @ NO, vs. Tampa
Projected finish 10-6
Falcons should be 9-7 at worst with this schedule. They currently hold the tiebreaker with every other contending Wild Card team.
6. Chicago Bears
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Den., Sea., @ GB, @ Min.
Projected finish 9-7
The last spot could go to a number of teams. Caleb Hanie has played terribly the last two weeks, but the Bears still control their own destiny and hold the tiebreaker over the Lions and Giants. The Lions (7-5) have lost five of seven and have the Raiders and Packers left on their schedule. The Giants (6-6) have lost four straight and have the Cowboys twice and the Jets left. It seems inevitable that the NFC's sixth seed will only have nine wins, so don't leave Seattle out of the equation. At 5-7, the Seahawks would need to win out, but with games against the Rams, Bears and Cardinals, I could see Seattle getting close. Their Week 16 matchup against the 49ers could prove problematic, but if San Francisco has nothing to play for, Seattle could pull the upset.
Currently 12-0
Remaining schedule vs. Oak., @ KC, vs. Chi., vs. Det.
Projected finish 16-0
I'd be shocked if the Packers lost a regular season game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Currently 10-2
Remaining schedule @ Arz., vs. Pitt., @ Sea., @ Stl.
Projected finish 13-3
The 49ers will clinch the second seed with three more wins.
3. New Orleans Saints
Currently 9-3
Remaining schedule @ Ten., @ Min., vs. Atl., vs. Car.
Projected finish 12-4
New Orleans needs three more wins to clinch the NFC South.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule vs. NYG, @ Tampa, vs. Phi., @ NYG
Projected finish 10-6
Dallas gets the win this Sunday, essentially clinching the division.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Car., vs. Jack., @ NO, vs. Tampa
Projected finish 10-6
Falcons should be 9-7 at worst with this schedule. They currently hold the tiebreaker with every other contending Wild Card team.
6. Chicago Bears
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Den., Sea., @ GB, @ Min.
Projected finish 9-7
The last spot could go to a number of teams. Caleb Hanie has played terribly the last two weeks, but the Bears still control their own destiny and hold the tiebreaker over the Lions and Giants. The Lions (7-5) have lost five of seven and have the Raiders and Packers left on their schedule. The Giants (6-6) have lost four straight and have the Cowboys twice and the Jets left. It seems inevitable that the NFC's sixth seed will only have nine wins, so don't leave Seattle out of the equation. At 5-7, the Seahawks would need to win out, but with games against the Rams, Bears and Cardinals, I could see Seattle getting close. Their Week 16 matchup against the 49ers could prove problematic, but if San Francisco has nothing to play for, Seattle could pull the upset.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Thoughts on Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow threw for more than 200 yards in the Broncos 35-32 victory against the Vikings.
His performance has changed the media's question from: "Does Tebow deserve credit for the Broncos win streak?" to "Should Tebow be Denver's franchise quarterback?"
My answer: yes and yes.
Many people are giving the Broncos defense all the credit for the win streak. The unit has been outstanding, to be sure. But what's lost is Tebow's amazing ability to avoid turnovers.
I really don't care how many times he throws the ball as long as he doesn't turn it over and puts together a few scoring drives. In his seven starts, he has just three turnovers. He has thrown the ball 158 times with just one interception. And the offense has scored 15 touchdowns in seven games, a good-enough number.
Kyle Orton was 1-4 as a starter. He had nine turnovers, including seven interceptions, in five games. He had the same supporting cast, yet he constantly put his defense in bad spots. Tebow doesn't do that, and now everybody sees that the Broncos have a great defense.
Just as the play of Alex Smith has complemented the 49ers defense, Tebow's play has had the same effect.
And he's winning, which is all that matters.
Will Tebow get exposed against a great defense? Will his accuracy issues cost the Broncos down the stretch?
My answer: yes and yes.
But Tebow is the Broncos best option right now and he absolutely deserves credit for the win streak and the position of starting quarterback in Denver.
His performance has changed the media's question from: "Does Tebow deserve credit for the Broncos win streak?" to "Should Tebow be Denver's franchise quarterback?"
My answer: yes and yes.
Many people are giving the Broncos defense all the credit for the win streak. The unit has been outstanding, to be sure. But what's lost is Tebow's amazing ability to avoid turnovers.
I really don't care how many times he throws the ball as long as he doesn't turn it over and puts together a few scoring drives. In his seven starts, he has just three turnovers. He has thrown the ball 158 times with just one interception. And the offense has scored 15 touchdowns in seven games, a good-enough number.
Kyle Orton was 1-4 as a starter. He had nine turnovers, including seven interceptions, in five games. He had the same supporting cast, yet he constantly put his defense in bad spots. Tebow doesn't do that, and now everybody sees that the Broncos have a great defense.
Just as the play of Alex Smith has complemented the 49ers defense, Tebow's play has had the same effect.
And he's winning, which is all that matters.
Will Tebow get exposed against a great defense? Will his accuracy issues cost the Broncos down the stretch?
My answer: yes and yes.
But Tebow is the Broncos best option right now and he absolutely deserves credit for the win streak and the position of starting quarterback in Denver.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Postgame notes: 49ers clinch NFC West title
When Patrick Willis left Sunday's game against the Rams with a hamstring injury in the first quarter, there was reason to believe the 49ers defense would miss a beat.
Instead, the rhythm continued.
The 49ers posted their first shutout in two years, beating the Rams 26-0 to clinch the NFC West division title.
Alex Smith was 17 of 23 with 274 yards and two touchdowns. Smith posted a 142.3 QB Rating, his best single-game rating in his career.
The 49ers continued their trend of letting their opponent hang around. Despite three trips to the red zone, all San Francisco could muster were three first-half field goals.
The Niners finally broke through when Smith hit Michael Crabtree for a 52-yard touchdown in the third quarter.
I don't mean to be a downer, but the 49ers do have a few negatives to take from this game. Not being able to score from inside the 1-yard line is a huge issue moving forward. Also, the 49ers inability to pound the rock with Frank Gore is becoming a trend.
Gore had 73 yards on 21 carries, a rather quiet performance considering the Rams came into the game with worst-ranked run defense.
But one thing's for sure -- this defense is outstanding, and the Niners will be in every game as long as they limit their turnovers.
If the Saints and 49ers finished at 13-3, San Francisco would get the second seed in the NFC Playoffs. The 49ers have already defeated three of its remaining opponents by a combined scored of 82-24, but keep in mind that each of those games were in San Francisco.
Stats to note:
The 49ers have allowed one touchdown in the first half of home games this year (vs. Dallas with 1:48 to go in the half).
Steven Jackson rushed for 19 yards, his lowest total since the 2007 season.
The 49ers have outscored their opponents 144-40 in their last five home games.
San Francisco is 14-3 in its last 17 division games (6-1 vs. Stl, 5-0 vs. Arz, 3-2 vs. Sea) and has won its last 10 division home games
Instead, the rhythm continued.
The 49ers posted their first shutout in two years, beating the Rams 26-0 to clinch the NFC West division title.
Alex Smith was 17 of 23 with 274 yards and two touchdowns. Smith posted a 142.3 QB Rating, his best single-game rating in his career.
The 49ers continued their trend of letting their opponent hang around. Despite three trips to the red zone, all San Francisco could muster were three first-half field goals.
The Niners finally broke through when Smith hit Michael Crabtree for a 52-yard touchdown in the third quarter.
I don't mean to be a downer, but the 49ers do have a few negatives to take from this game. Not being able to score from inside the 1-yard line is a huge issue moving forward. Also, the 49ers inability to pound the rock with Frank Gore is becoming a trend.
Gore had 73 yards on 21 carries, a rather quiet performance considering the Rams came into the game with worst-ranked run defense.
But one thing's for sure -- this defense is outstanding, and the Niners will be in every game as long as they limit their turnovers.
If the Saints and 49ers finished at 13-3, San Francisco would get the second seed in the NFC Playoffs. The 49ers have already defeated three of its remaining opponents by a combined scored of 82-24, but keep in mind that each of those games were in San Francisco.
Stats to note:
The 49ers have allowed one touchdown in the first half of home games this year (vs. Dallas with 1:48 to go in the half).
Steven Jackson rushed for 19 yards, his lowest total since the 2007 season.
The 49ers have outscored their opponents 144-40 in their last five home games.
San Francisco is 14-3 in its last 17 division games (6-1 vs. Stl, 5-0 vs. Arz, 3-2 vs. Sea) and has won its last 10 division home games
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