Bay Area Blitz

Saints vs. 49ers analysis and prediction

2012-01-13T13:23:00.001-08:00

Nine years ago the 49ers rallied to beat the New York Giants 39-38 in the Wild Card Round of the NFC Playoffs.

Since that day, fans at Candlestick Park haven't witnessed any postseason football.

Tomorrow, the drought will end.

The 49ers, with the NFC's top-ranked defense, will take on the Saints, with the NFL's top-ranked offense.

The 49ers allow just 14.3 points per game, and that number decreases to 10.9 when they play at home.

The Saints score 34.2 points per game, but that number decreases to 27.3 when they're on the road and 25.8 when they play on grass.

Most 49ers fans have used this stat to say that Drew Brees will struggle because he's not playing at home, and the offense will be slower because they will be playing on grass instead of turf.

There is some truth to this assertion. Brees has thrown only 17 of his 45 touchdowns on the road this year. He's also thrown 8 of his 14 interceptions on the road.

I believe the 49ers defense will provide a huge challenge to Brees and the Saints offense. But it would be very ignorant to believe that the Saints will be held under 20 points. No team has held the Saints under 20 this season, and New Orleans has averaged 44 points per game in their last four games.

I doubt that the 49ers offense will put up prolific numbers. The 49ers convert just 29 percent of their third downs and they score touchdowns only 40 percent of the time in the red zone. They will need to improve on these numbers if they want to win on Sunday.

It's impossible to predict how Alex Smith will fare in his first playoff game. Smith's yards per attempt was abysmal in his last four games, but the 49ers managed to win three of those games. One big reason why is that Smith didn't turn the ball over in that stretch.

Will Alex be able to complete a few big passes and not turn the ball over? His performance is the key to the game. I've heard at least five different ESPN analysts say, "I'm taking the Saints because the 49ers have Alex Smith." Smith still has so much to prove, and he has his first big chance to silence his critics.

Here are a few interesting stats before I make a prediction:
Drew Brees has as many touchdowns on the road as Alex Smith has touchdowns.
The Saints average more rushing yards per game than the 49ers.
In their last six home games, the 49ers average margin of victory was 20 per game.
The 49ers are +28 in turnover margin. The Saints have forced 18 turnovers TOTAL.

Prediction:
I think this is going to be a really close game. It will end in the 20s. The 49ers will win the turnover battle, but the Saints will have at least 100 more yards of offense than S.F. Both teams will have problems in the red zone, and both will be held under 100 yards running the football. But with the game on the line, Drew Brees will be able to lead the Saints down the field for a game-winning field goal.

Saints 25 49ers 23

49ers vs. Rams II prediction

2012-01-01T10:09:00.000-08:00

It's as simple as this: the 49ers need to beat the worst team in the NFL to get a first-round bye for the playoffs.

They will do it if they complete these three keys to the game.

1. Score a first half touchdown
The 49ers are designed to play with a lead. But San Francisco hasn't scored a touchdown in the first half in seven games. Looking forward to the playoffs, the 49ers need to get this monkey off their back. If the 49ers play a strong first half, the Rams may lay over and look toward next year.

2. Shut down Steven Jackson
This is about getting the swagger back. Marshawn Lynch broke the 49ers two impressive streaks (more than two years without a 100-yard rusher and a whole season without a touchdown).

3. Just Win Baby
It's not easy to go 13-3. Stranger things have happened than a Rams win on Sunday. Get a win, rest up, and get ready for a clash with Saints in Candlestick.

Prediction
49ers 27 Rams 7

Overrated vs. Underrated

2011-12-26T23:48:00.000-08:00

The three most underrated teams in the NFL

Miami Dolphins
First off, the Dolphins have scored more points than they've allowed, yet they're only 5-10. I'd argue that they are the most unlucky team in the NFL, which essentially makes them underrated. Matt Moore is usually thought of as a mediocre NFL quarterback, but his QB Rating of 89.8 is 11th best in the NFL. The defense has allowed the seventh-fewest points in the NFL. This team could surprise next season in the AFC.

Carolina Panthers
I think the Panthers would have a good shot at beating any team in the first round of the playoffs. Cam Newton is only getting better as the season progresses, and the Panthers defense has allowed less than 20 points in four of their last five games.

Detroit Lions
It may seem strange to put a 10-5 team on this list, but no one is talking about the Lions making a deep run in the postseason. Detroit is inconsistent, no question, but it is also explosive. The Lions are +91 in point differential. Kevin Smith is healthy, which makes their offense as good as there is in football. The Lions are also 5-2 on the road.

Most overrated teams
Denver Broncos
After the loss to the Bills, most people are off the Tebow bandwagon, but for those who remain, it may be time to hop on a more contemporary means of transportation. The Broncos have been blown out twice in a row. Before the losing streak, they would've lost if not for a miss by San Diego kicker Nick Novak, an interception by Minnesota quarterback Christian Ponder and an epic collapse of the Chicago Bears. The Broncos may beat the hapless Chiefs on Sunday, but expect them to be blown out if they make the dance.

New York Jets
The Jets have not beat a team that currently has a winning record since Week 1. Mark Sanchez has struggled all season long, and the Jets rushing attack has been inconsistent. But what's more concerning is the Jets defense, which allows 22.9 points per game, 22nd in the NFL. It all adds up to a team that doesn't do anything above average.

Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have not beat a team that currently has a winning record since Week 2. The Dallas defense gives up big plays in the running game and the passing game. Tony Romo has had an excellent season, but I expect the 'Boys will be knocked out by the Giants, who simply are a better all-around team.

Postgame notes: 49ers edge Seahawks

2011-12-25T14:07:00.000-08:00

Following the 49ers 19-17 triumph against the Seahawks on Saturday, I felt mixed emotions.

On the bright side, the 49ers are in prime position to secure the NFC’s second seed. I’ve stressed the importance of this many times, and as a 49ers fan I’m relieved that they are likely to secure a first-round bye.

I think all 49ers fans wanted to get the No. 2 seed because we knew that the Saints are almost impossible to beat in the Superdome. But now it’s imperative because the 49ers need the rest.

Delanie Walker and Kyle Williams suffered what appear to be brutal injuries. I’m guessing they both sustained concussions. Justin Smith left the game for a series but returned soon after.

Add Patrick Willis and Ted Ginn, who did not play against Seattle, and it’s obvious that the 49ers could use the rest.

As for the game, the Seahawks were the first team this year to run the ball on the 49ers. Marshawn Lynch was falling forward nearly every play. The 49ers were lucky to only be down by a touchdown at halftime.

The key play of the first half was the 49ers goal-line stand. On third-and-goal from the 1, the Seahawks bootlegged Jackson, and he tried to run it in. Carlos Rogers stopped him at the 1, and the Seahawks settled for a field goal.

The 49ers absolutely dominated the Seahawks in every facet in the second half. On the 49ers opening drive, Gore’s 4-yard touchdown plunge tied the game and gave San Francisco all the momentum. But soon after, the 49ers settled for two field goals deep in Seattle territory, taking a 16-10 lead. The play calling was absolutely conservative, whether Harbaugh admits it or not.

After Alex Smith was nearly intercepted by Earl Thomas in the end zone, Harbaugh never gave Smith a chance to make a play in the red zone.

Harbaugh’s field goal plan was working until Andy Lee’s punt was blocked, setting up a 4-yard rushing touchdown by Lynch.

At the time, I felt that the 49ers were incredibly unlucky, but it was a good precursor to the playoffs. The 49ers will not be able to sit on six-point leads for an entire quarter during the postseason.

The 49ers answered when Michael Crabtree caught a 41-yard pass from Alex Smith. Once again, the 49ers then went conservative, deciding to take the points and give Seattle a chance to win the game with a field goal.

This left a bad taste in my mouth. I thought Harbaugh had more trust in Smith. I thought the 49ers offense was more dynamic than the Trent Dilfer-led Ravens of the early 2000s.

I thought wrong.

The 49ers defense was able to hold on against the Seahawks, but I’m not confident it will do the same against the elite teams in the NFL.

Stats to note:
The 49ers allowed their first rushing touchdown of the season. The fewest touchdowns allowed in a season is two, so the 49ers can still break that record by keeping the Rams out of the end zone next week.
With 42 field goals, David Akers has broken the NFL record for most field goals in a season.
The 49ers have not scored a first half touchdown in seven games. In those seven games, David Akers has kicked 17 first half field goals.
Lynch (21 carries, 107 yards) ended the 49ers 36-game streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher.

49ers vs. Seahawks prediction

2011-12-23T23:41:00.000-08:00

Marshawn Lynch has scored a touchdown in 10 straight games. The 49ers haven't allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Something has to give.

The 49ers and Seahawks square off on Saturday with playoff implications for both teams. Seattle needs to win its last two games just to have a shot at making the playoffs, whereas the 49ers would clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed with two wins.

The Seahawks have won five out of six, and much of the credit has been given to Lynch, who has at least 20 carries in all six games and 100 rushing yards in four of them. But don't forget to credit the Seattle defense, which has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in all five wins.

Alex Smith will be challenged by the crowd noise, but don't assume he'll play poorly because of it. Smith has had some of his best performances in Seattle -- a three-TD (two passing, one rushing) performance on Thursday Night Football in his second season (49ers won 24-14) and a 310-yard two-TD performance in 2009 (49ers lost 20-17).

The strength of the Seahawks defense is their front seven. You may recall in Week 1 when the 49ers beat Seattle, Frank Gore struggled to get going. Gore rushed for just 59 yards, and the 49ers as an offense had 209 yards. Fueled by two fourth-quarter special teams touchdowns by Ted Ginn, the 49ers won 33-17.

Much has changed since their first tilt, as both teams have established solid rushing attacks. So as far keys to the game go, the 49ers will need Frank Gore to outplay Marshawn Lynch. Lynch rushed for just 33 yards in the first matchup, but as mentioned before, the Seattle run game is playing at a higher level. The 49ers could use a healthy Patrick Willis, who is a game-time decision.

Secondly, the 49ers have to win the turnover battle. The 49ers have the best turnover margin in the NFL, but Seattle has +13 turnover margin in its last six games. The easiest way to create turnovers is to get ahead of the opposition and get it in third and longs, and the 49ers can do this if they shut down Lynch.

Lastly, Kyle Williams needs to have a breakout game. The 49ers have relied on Ginn's returns all year, but he is out this week. Williams will take his place, and the 49ers can't afford a gaffe like Williams had against Pittsburgh when he fumbled as a returner (he caught a huge break when a penalty erased the fumble). Williams will also be Smith's No. 2 receiver. Williams has been one of the most reliable offensive players for weeks, but this will be his first stint without Ginn, and it's likely that Braylon Edwards won't play either.

Prediction
The Seahawks don't have the offensive weapons to really threaten the 49ers suffocating defense. I have no reason to believe that Lynch will crack the 49ers defense that's stood tall against more talented backs (LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson) Thus, this game will come down to the 49ers cashing in on their opportunities and winning the turnover battle. It should be a low-scoring game, the type of game the 49ers have been thriving in all season.
49ers 16 Seahawks 10

NFL Playoff Picture heading into Week 16

2011-12-21T00:03:00.000-08:00

Projected NFC Standings
1. Green Bay Packers 15-1
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 13-3
4. Dallas Cowboys 9-7
5. Atlanta Falcons 10-6
6. Detroit Lions 10-6

- I have a strong urge to put the Eagles as the the division winner of the NFC East. They would need two wins, a New York Giants loss to the Jets and a Giants win against the Cowboys. This means if the Giants beat the Jets on Saturday, the Eagles will have nothing to play for. I'm guessing that the Jets do beat the Giants, and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, but the 'Boys then beat the Giants to win the division on the last day of the regular season (this would leave the standings as Dallas 9-7, Philadelphia 8-8, NYG 7-9, Washington 6-10)

Projected AFC Standings
1. New England Patriots 13-3
2. Baltimore Ravens 12-4
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Denver Broncos 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. New York Jets 10-6

- No big surprises here. The Jets currently own the tiebreaker over the Bengals if both teams finish 10-6. I have the Bengals losing to the Ravens in Week 17 anyway. The Jets are no shoe-in to win their last two games (vs. Giants, @ Miami), but I say they edge both teams and get in. Rex Ryan has a history of sneaking into the playoffs, why would this year be any different? If the Jets do get in, it's entirely possible that the second round of the AFC playoffs is identical to last year's (NYJ @ New England, (Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh).

Postgame notes: 49ers power past Steelers

2011-12-20T18:46:00.000-08:00

Prior to Monday Night's kickoff, dissenters said the 49ers hadn't beat anybody good and were consequently overrated.

Come Tuesday morning, there was a new excuse:

"If Big Ben was not injured, then the Steelers would've beat the 49ers."

So it goes as a 2011 49ers fan.

Whether the 49ers are getting the respect they deserve is an argument for another time, but nobody can take away their dominating 20-3 victory against Pittsburgh on Monday.

If San Francisco (11-3) wins its final two regular season games, it secures a bye in the first round of the playoffs.

The injury status of Joe Staley, Ted Ginn and Patrick Willis continues to be up in the air. In other words, the 49ers would benefit immensely from a bye.

That's what made this win so important, and that's what makes the matchup against Seattle on Saturday even more important.

The Steelers could not block Aldon Smith, who now leads all rookies in sacks with 13. You can thank Jim Tomsula for winning his lone game as head coach for the selection of Aldon Smith. On draft day, most 49ers fans wanted Patrick Peterson, but he was snatched two spots ahead where the 49ers would have been picking had they lost Week 17 last year (end of mini-tangent).

Suffice to say, Aldon may be the dominant pass rusher that this defense needed to become the best in the NFC.

Before the 49ers beat the Steelers, there was a perception that good passing teams would be able to score on the 49ers defense.

But if Aldon can repeat this performance against the Packers (who just gave up three sacks to Tamba Hali) and/or the Saints in the playoffs, then maybe the 49ers DO indeed have a chance at winning it all.

It's hard for me to wrap my head around this idea. The 49ers could win the Super Bowl.

After all, they have the best turnover margin, the best field position differential, the best scoring defense and the coach of the year.

Stats to note:
The 49ers have won six straight home games, winning by a combined score of 164-43.
The Saints finished 5-3 on the road this year. Of their final 10 games, one was played on grass (22-17 W @ Tennessee).
David Akers now needs three field goals to break the single-season record.

Postgame notes: Cardinals edge 49ers

2011-12-12T13:07:00.000-08:00

Every team in the NFL (sans the Packers) has lost a game that they should've won. Even the good teams (sans the Packers again) have found a way to drop a game against an inferior opponent.

The Patriots lost to the 5-8 Bills. The Ravens lost to the Seahawks and Jaguars. The Saints lost to the Rams...

So first off, the 49ers were due for something like this to happen.

A few things we learned:

Lesson No. 1: Never take a win for granted.
Lesson No. 2: Backup quarterbacks can and will beat you if you give up big plays and don't tackle.
Lesson No. 3: Settling for field goals will cost you in the end.

So now that that's out of the way, let's try to explain what happened. On the Cardinals first TD, the Niners were not in the right position, allowing Early Doucet to score a 60-yard touchdown.

Over the course of a season, these things happen. I was willing to give the 49ers a pass for the blown coverage.

The Cardinals second TD was an amazing play by Larry Fitzgerald. He kicked Goldson in the air as he caught the ball at its highest point. Goldson was injured on the play, allowing Fitzgerald to walk into the end zone.

The last TD drive was set up by a Fitzgerald 50-yard catch and run in which he broke several tackles in the 49ers secondary. The Cardinals cashed in with a TD catch by Andre Roberts.

So the 49ers were in poor positions and didn't tackle well on the three big plays. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on what happens), the SF secondary will have a chance at redemption against the equally talented receiving corps of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

But once again, as I type about the failures of the defense, I think to myself, the unit forced three turnovers and seven punts. All things considered, it was a decent performance.

The offense was atrocious. The early injury to Joe Staley didn't help, but excuses aside, the offense is not clicking. The Niners were 0-3 in the red zone, with the most frustrating sequence coming after Ted Ginn's 52-yard punt return to the Cardinals 4-yard.

The ugliest stat: 3 for 17 on third downs. Credit the Niners defense and special teams for great field position. Without it, the Niners easily could have been shut out in this game.

We all would have liked to see Frank Gore have more than 10 carries, especially when he was averaging more than seven yards a pop. Gore would've had a lot more carries if the Niners could have sustained more drives.

The Niners averaged just 3.7 yards per play, another awful stat. Five sacks contributed to this total.

Anyways, next up are the 10-3 Steelers. My early guess is that Ben Roethlisberger will play. He won't be 100 percent, but who is at this point? The Niners defense tends to play better at home, and they will have to be at their best against Big Ben if they want to get their 11th win.

Stats to note:
This was just the second time the 49ers have allowed three touchdowns in a game this season. The other time was against the Cowboys in Week 2.

David Akers needs five field goals to break Neil Rackers's all-time record of 40 field goals in one season.

49ers vs. Cardinals prediction

2011-12-10T21:54:00.000-08:00

The 49ers dominated the Cardinals en route to a 23-7 win just three weeks ago. The rematch could prove to be a much closer game.

This time, Patrick Willis is not expected to play. Meanwhile, Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb is expected to play.

Kolb is by no means an elite quarterback, but he is by far the best quarterback on the Arizona roster. Kolb's 7.8 yards per attempt average is the best on the Cardinals and better than Alex Smith's 7.4 average.

Kolb doesn't have particularly great arm strength, but for whatever reason, he actually creates a bunch of big plays. Kolb has completed a pass of at least 47 yards in all but two games this year, including a screen pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling that led to a catch and run of 52 yards and a touchdown to beat the Cowboys in overtime a week ago. The only way the Cardinals have a chance to beat the 49ers is through big plays. So the first key is to LIMIT BIG PLAYS.

Will the loss of Patrick Willis hurt the 49ers run defense? Of course. How much? We'll find out. Most 49ers fans would say that San Francisco shut down Steven Jackson last week after Willis went down with an injury. This week, the Cardinals had time to game plan for the Willis-less Niners. Will the Cards find a way to expose Larry Grant? Will NaVorro Bowman play worse without his linebacking mate? The second key is for the 49ers to KEEP BEANIE UNDER 70 YARDS.

Frank Gore has rushed for 200 yards in his last four games. The 49ers have found a way to win three of them, but I believe if this trend continues, San Francisco will be in trouble. On the road, Alex Smith has had three mediocre performances in a row. He's going to need a running game to open the passing game. So the third key is for FRANK GORE AND CO. TO AVERAGE AT LEAST FOUR YARDS PER CARRY.

I see this game being a defensive affair. If the 49ers are inefficient in the red zone (like they've been all year), then Arizona will hang around. I think the 49ers disciplined defense will be just enough to get them their 11th win.

49ers 19 Cardinals 13

Predicting the NFC playoff field

2011-12-07T13:22:00.000-08:00

1. Green Bay Packers
Currently 12-0
Remaining schedule vs. Oak., @ KC, vs. Chi., vs. Det.
Projected finish 16-0
I'd be shocked if the Packers lost a regular season game.

2. San Francisco 49ers
Currently 10-2
Remaining schedule @ Arz., vs. Pitt., @ Sea., @ Stl.
Projected finish 13-3
The 49ers will clinch the second seed with three more wins.

3. New Orleans Saints
Currently 9-3
Remaining schedule @ Ten., @ Min., vs. Atl., vs. Car.
Projected finish 12-4
New Orleans needs three more wins to clinch the NFC South.

4. Dallas Cowboys
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule vs. NYG, @ Tampa, vs. Phi., @ NYG
Projected finish 10-6
Dallas gets the win this Sunday, essentially clinching the division.

5. Atlanta Falcons
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Car., vs. Jack., @ NO, vs. Tampa
Projected finish 10-6
Falcons should be 9-7 at worst with this schedule. They currently hold the tiebreaker with every other contending Wild Card team.

6. Chicago Bears
Currently 7-5
Remaining schedule @ Den., Sea., @ GB, @ Min.
Projected finish 9-7
The last spot could go to a number of teams. Caleb Hanie has played terribly the last two weeks, but the Bears still control their own destiny and hold the tiebreaker over the Lions and Giants. The Lions (7-5) have lost five of seven and have the Raiders and Packers left on their schedule. The Giants (6-6) have lost four straight and have the Cowboys twice and the Jets left. It seems inevitable that the NFC's sixth seed will only have nine wins, so don't leave Seattle out of the equation. At 5-7, the Seahawks would need to win out, but with games against the Rams, Bears and Cardinals, I could see Seattle getting close. Their Week 16 matchup against the 49ers could prove problematic, but if San Francisco has nothing to play for, Seattle could pull the upset.

Thoughts on Tim Tebow

2011-12-05T15:45:00.001-08:00

Tim Tebow threw for more than 200 yards in the Broncos 35-32 victory against the Vikings.

His performance has changed the media's question from: "Does Tebow deserve credit for the Broncos win streak?" to "Should Tebow be Denver's franchise quarterback?"

My answer: yes and yes.

Many people are giving the Broncos defense all the credit for the win streak. The unit has been outstanding, to be sure. But what's lost is Tebow's amazing ability to avoid turnovers.

I really don't care how many times he throws the ball as long as he doesn't turn it over and puts together a few scoring drives. In his seven starts, he has just three turnovers. He has thrown the ball 158 times with just one interception. And the offense has scored 15 touchdowns in seven games, a good-enough number.

Kyle Orton was 1-4 as a starter. He had nine turnovers, including seven interceptions, in five games. He had the same supporting cast, yet he constantly put his defense in bad spots. Tebow doesn't do that, and now everybody sees that the Broncos have a great defense.

Just as the play of Alex Smith has complemented the 49ers defense, Tebow's play has had the same effect.

And he's winning, which is all that matters.

Will Tebow get exposed against a great defense? Will his accuracy issues cost the Broncos down the stretch?

My answer: yes and yes.

But Tebow is the Broncos best option right now and he absolutely deserves credit for the win streak and the position of starting quarterback in Denver.

Postgame notes: 49ers clinch NFC West title

2011-12-04T23:18:00.001-08:00

When Patrick Willis left Sunday's game against the Rams with a hamstring injury in the first quarter, there was reason to believe the 49ers defense would miss a beat.

Instead, the rhythm continued.

The 49ers posted their first shutout in two years, beating the Rams 26-0 to clinch the NFC West division title.

Alex Smith was 17 of 23 with 274 yards and two touchdowns. Smith posted a 142.3 QB Rating, his best single-game rating in his career.

The 49ers continued their trend of letting their opponent hang around. Despite three trips to the red zone, all San Francisco could muster were three first-half field goals.

The Niners finally broke through when Smith hit Michael Crabtree for a 52-yard touchdown in the third quarter.

I don't mean to be a downer, but the 49ers do have a few negatives to take from this game. Not being able to score from inside the 1-yard line is a huge issue moving forward. Also, the 49ers inability to pound the rock with Frank Gore is becoming a trend.

Gore had 73 yards on 21 carries, a rather quiet performance considering the Rams came into the game with worst-ranked run defense.

But one thing's for sure -- this defense is outstanding, and the Niners will be in every game as long as they limit their turnovers.

If the Saints and 49ers finished at 13-3, San Francisco would get the second seed in the NFC Playoffs. The 49ers have already defeated three of its remaining opponents by a combined scored of 82-24, but keep in mind that each of those games were in San Francisco.

Stats to note:
The 49ers have allowed one touchdown in the first half of home games this year (vs. Dallas with 1:48 to go in the half).

Steven Jackson rushed for 19 yards, his lowest total since the 2007 season.

The 49ers have outscored their opponents 144-40 in their last five home games.

San Francisco is 14-3 in its last 17 division games (6-1 vs. Stl, 5-0 vs. Arz, 3-2 vs. Sea) and has won its last 10 division home games

49ers vs. Rams prediction

2011-12-01T23:45:00.000-08:00

What did the Rams do to deserve this?

Injuries, injuries and more injuries have been the story of the 2011 St. Louis Rams. Sam Bradford, both offensive tackles and practically the entire secondary have been bit by the injury bug this year.

Not surprisingly, the Rams are 2-9 to show for it.

Despite all the injuries, two players have remained a constant for St. Louis -- Steven Jackson and Chris Long, two players the 49ers have struggled to contain in the past.

Jackson is an elite back capable of taking over a game, just ask the Saints. Jackson had 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 31-21 win against New Orleans. The 49ers have not allowed a player to rush for more than 75 yards against them this season. So the first key to the game will be SLOW DOWN STEVEN.

The 49ers offense needs a rebound performance, and it starts with the offensive line. Chris Long will be a handful (if he plays, he's questionable for Sunday), but the 49ers must keep him from sacking Alex Smith. The 49ers run game has also been stuck in mud for the last few weeks, and the Rams have the league's worst run defense in yards per game allowed at 159. So the OFFENSIVE LINE MUST WIN THE TRENCHES.

Lastly, this game features an interesting personal battle between 2011 first-round draft picks. The 49ers could have selected pass rusher Robert Quinn with the No. 7 pick but instead shocked many draft gurus and took Aldon Smith instead. Quinn was taken by the Rams at No. 12, and now he and Smith are piling up sacks for their respective teams. The 49ers had no sacks against the Ravens last week, and it may be up to the rookie to ignite the pass rush. So the third key is for ALDON TO OUTSHINE HIS COUNTERPART.

Prediction:
I believe the 49ers have the edge in all three of my keys to the game. The Rams could stay in the game if they stop the run and get pressure on Alex Smith. But the 49ers should be able to win the field position battle, get an early lead, and tee off on whomever starts at quarterback for the Rams. The 49ers need this win to clinch the division, which should be the perfect incentive for a bounce back performance.

49ers 30 Rams 10

One man's take on the Penn State sex-abuse scandal

2011-12-01T00:05:00.000-08:00

You are a chef.

In fact, you are the chef of one of the best restaurants in the U.S., and your cooking is the main attraction.

One day, a new server tells you that a friend of yours who worked at the restaurant three years ago was doing something that looked like sexual assault after hours in the restaurant the night before.

So you decide to tell your boss about the allegation.

Your boss investigates the situation and tells the man who was accused to never come back to the restaurant again.

Time passes by and you see the accused man in another area of town. Obviously, he has not been arrested. Suddenly you are struck with two options. You can either pretend you never saw him or you can make sure the police were informed of the recent allegation against him.

Being the extremely busy chef you are, you decide to stay out of it, hoping to never hear of it again.

Nine years later, you read a grand jury report with a laundry list of sexual-abuse allegations against your old friend. You feel terrible. You know you should have done more to make sure the police were informed nine years ago.

Your boss is fired, and suddenly the assistant manager fires you too. For the rest of your life, you will be remembered as an enabler of sexual abuse and a disgrace to society.

You, the chef, were negligent. But before we play the moral game and decide what you, the reader, would have done in this situation, let’s face the fact that we are negligent all the time.

Within the next few months, a girl who attends San Jose State University will get raped. We all know this, and if you’re anything like me, you hate thinking about it.

There are plenty of things we could do to limit the amounts of sexual assault on and near our campus.

We could have watchdogs at parties who specifically keep an eye out for potential rape victims.

We could have a rule on campus that boys and girls can not be in the same room together past a certain time at night.

I realize that these suggestions may sound ridiculous, but shouldn’t we do anything in our power to limit the potential of rape at college?

Instead we do nothing. Essentially, we are accepting that college girls get raped, negligent to the issue.

Every time we get in a car, we accept that tens of thousands of people will get killed in auto accidents. Yet we drive anyway.

We are all cowards to some extent, not so much different than Chef Paterno.

So the next time you are downgrading someone, I want you to take a long look in the mirror and ask yourself this question: Do you want society to take you down before you have the chance to defend yourself?

Predicting the playoff field

2011-11-28T14:20:00.000-08:00

NFC
1. Green Bay Packers 16-0
2. San Francisco 49ers 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints 12-4
4. Dallas Cowboys 11-5
5. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
6. Chicago Bears 10-6

- I believe the Packers are going to go undefeated in the regular season. But if they lose a game before Week 17, I wouldn't be surprised if the Detroit Lions handed them their second loss in the last week of the season. So if you are a Lions fan, root against the Packers just so they will take it easy on you in Week 17.

- The Atlanta Falcons are playing well and have a friendly schedule. They also have a head to head victory against the Lions, giving them the edge if there is a tie for the last spot.

- Caleb Hanie was awful in his first game as starting quarterback of the Bears. Yet with games remaining against the Chiefs, Seahawks and Vikings, the Bears should be able to win at least three more games.

- This means I have the Lions out, but I could easily see them getting in if they beat a shorthanded Packers team in Week 17.

- The only other team worthy of mention is the New York Giants. With their brutal schedule, winning more than 9 seems like too much to ask.

AFC
1. Baltimore Ravens 13-3
2. New England Patriots 13-3
3. Houston Texans 11-5
4. Oakland Raiders 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
6. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

- It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the AFC's three best teams (Ravens, Patriots, Steelers) win out. The Ravens have been the shakiest road team and have three road games left, but with home-field advantage for the playoffs at stake, I think the Ravens will take care of business. The Patriots and Steelers seem like locks for at least 12 wins.

- Who had the Raiders and Broncos as the top two AFC West contenders? Both teams are inconsistent. I think the Raiders are a slightly better team at this point so I'll give them the nod.

- The last spot goes to the Bengals. If they can beat the Rams and Cardinals, they'd probably need just one more win to make the playoffs. But you never know how a rookie quarterback will respond to the pressure of December football. Still, I'll take them for now, but remember that the Broncos have the head to head tiebreaker against them.

- The Titans would likely have to win out to overtake the Texans in the AFC South or the Bengals for the last spot in the rankings. I don't think they'll even get close, especially with the Saints still on their schedule.

- This leaves the Jets, who would have the tiebreaker over nobody. They would likely have to win out to make the playoffs. Fortunately, they only have one game left against a team with an over .500 record (Giants). I say they find a way to lose one game and miss out on the playoffs.

NFL Power Rankings post-Thanksgiving

2011-11-25T10:36:00.000-08:00

Tier 1 (Super Bowl favorites)
1. Green Bay Packers 11-0
Aaron Rodgers gets all the talk, and he deserves most of it, but what about the Packers defense. Shutting out the Lions for three quarters is extraordinary.
2. Baltimore Ravens 8-3
The Ravens have earned this spot in the rankings because they 4-0 against serious playoff contenders this season.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3
Only the Steelers and the teams ranked ahead of them boast an above average quarterback, a brutal pass rush and playmaking secondary.

Tier 2 (Contenders)
4. New England Patriots 7-3
Two myths about the Pats are they’re defense stinks and their run game is nonexistent. The Patriots only allow 20.3 points per game, ranking 10th in the NFL. They also rush for 111 yards per game.
5. Dallas Cowboys 7-4
Demarco Murray has brought balance to the Cowboys offense, a scary proposition for opposing defenses.
6. San Francisco 49ers 9-2
No question about it -- the 49ers were exposed by the Ravens. Clearly the 49ers defense will have to force turnovers to assist the offense in big games.
7. New Orleans Saints 7-3
A team led by Drew Brees is a threat to beat any NFL team. But the Saints may not have enough defense to compete with Packers in the NFC playoffs.

Tier 3 (Early playoff exit likely)
8. Atlanta Falcons 6-4
With the Lions having a brutal schedule to close the season and the injury to Jay Cutler, the Falcons have a great opportunity to claim one of the two Wild Card spots in the NFC.
9. Houston Texans 7-3
Matt Leinart is in a great position to succeed, (underrated defense, great running game, the return of Andre Johnson) and I think he will easily lead the Texans to the playoffs.
10. Cincinnati Bengals 6-4
Andy Dalton threw for 373 yards against the Ravens. That’s very impressive. As long as the Bengals can take care of business against inferior teams, they will make the playoffs.
11. Chicago Bears 7-3
The Bears offensive line is atrocious and you can’t expect an inexperienced quarterback to succeed in this situation. But the Bears still can run it with Matt Forte and play stifling defense.

Tier 4 (Average teams that don‘t belong in the playoffs)
12. Detroit Lions 7-4
Just when you thought the Lions established a running game, Kevin Smith gets hurt. It would be devastating if Ndamukong Suh was suspended for next week’s clash against the Saints.
13. Oakland Raiders 6-4
I suspect the Raiders offense will carry them into the playoffs. But if the defense doesn’t improve, they will likely be one and done.
14. New York Giants 6-4
The disappointing trend for the Giants is there inability to run the ball. This leads to Eli Manning interceptions and Giants losses.
15. New York Jets 5-5
Mark Sanchez sub-80 QB rating tells the story. If the Jets had better quarterback play, they’d be Super Bowl contenders.
16. Philadelphia Eagles 4-6
A loss and their season is over. But before you say they are rated too high, honestly ask if you think the Eagles are worse than any of the teams lower on this list.

Tier 5 (The rest)
17. San Diego Chargers 4-6
18. Tennessee Titans 5-5
19. Denver Broncos 5-5
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6
21. Miami Dolphins 3-8
22. Seattle Seahawks 4-6
23. Buffalo Bills 5-5
24. Washington Redskins 3-7
25. Carolina Panthers 2-8
26. Kansas City Chiefs 4-6
27. Cleveland Browns 4-6
28. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7
29. Minnesota Vikings 2-8
30. Arizona Cardinals 3-7
31. St. Louis Rams 2-8
32. Indianapolis Colts 0-10

Postgame notes: Ravens blitz 49ers

2011-11-24T22:29:00.000-08:00

The 49ers offense was downright abysmal against the Ravens. The ineffective pass protection by the offensive line was the main issue as the Ravens tied a franchise record with nine sacks.

Defensively, the 49ers played okay. But anytime you play the Ravens, a big key to the game is to make Joe Flacco uncomfortable. He had too much time in the pocket, particularly in the second half, as he picked apart the 49ers secondary at the tune of four consecutive third-down conversions in the Ravens go-ahead touchdown drive.

The 49ers lost the turnover battle for just the second time this year (the other time was against the Detroit Lions, an SF 25-19 victory).

There aren't many positives to be taken from this game, other than the fact that the 49ers were due for a butt-kicking and got it at the right time.

Yeah I said it. The 49ers needed a butt-kicking in the worst way. Every NFL team since the merger, sans the 1972 Miami Dolphins, has lost at least one game.

Losing makes you hungrier. And the 49ers needed it.

Over the last several weeks, the 49ers have struggled to put away inferior opponents. In all honesty, the 49ers should have beat the Arizona Cardinals by 40, but silly offensive mistakes allowed Arizona to stay in the game until the end of the third quarter.

But the 49ers were winning, and it's hard to berate a winner.

Now the 49ers have five games to get these problems fixed. Fortunately, they also have one more Super Bowl contending team left on the schedule as a GPS game for the playoffs. That game, a Monday Night showdown with the defending Super Bowl runner-up Steelers, will give the 49ers one last chance to show their true colors.

San Francisco's defense needs to figure out a way to get more pressure on the quarterback. The 49ers are becoming a bit too predictable in their nickel package. The Ravens were able to block San Francisco's four-man rush effectively. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio didn't dial up a lot of blitzes, and Flacco was able to make plays down the field in the second half.

But enough about the defense, which in its defense only allowed 16 points and completely shut down premier running back Ray Rice.

The offense needs a tune-up in every way. First off, the rushing attack was nonexistent. This has been an issue of late, and if the 49ers need to spread the field more and pass to set up the run, so be it. But the 49ers can't expect to win games when Frank Gore has 39 rushing yards.

Secondly, San Francisco needs to work on its quick-hitting plays. Chances are the 49ers will not be able to attack down the field against playoff defenses, especially ones with great pass rushers (i.e. Detroit, Green Bay, Dallas). In reality, the 49ers have been effectively passing the ball all year, and you have to give the Ravens credit for disrupting all facets of the 49ers game. Still, you would have liked to have seen more slants and quick outs or even screen passes by San Francisco.

At the end of the day, the 49ers (9-2) are in total command in the NFC West and the race for the NFC's second seed in the playoffs. This was the toughest game on the schedule (Joe Flacco is now 16-1 in his last 17 home games) and the 49ers need to move on and try to improve in their last five games.

Stats to note:
This was the 49ers first loss against the spread. They're now 9-1-1 this year.
This was the first time Alex Smith has posted a negative touchdown to interception ratio since a Dec. 16 loss to the Chargers last year.
The 49ers longest run in their last three games is 14 yards.
If the 49ers and Saints both finished 13-3, the 49ers would own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record. If the 49ers and Cowboys finished with the same record, the Cowboys would get the higher seed because of their head to head win (and the Niners over the Giants for the same reason).

HarBowl prediction

2011-11-23T23:14:00.000-08:00

Two great defenses. Two imperfect quarterbacks. Two great teams.

That’s what you’re going to get when the San Francisco 49ers (9-1) and Baltimore Ravens (7-3) square off in Baltimore on Thursday for the first edition of the HarBowl.

Keys to the game:

The best way to beat the Ravens is to get a lead on them early in the game and make them one-dimensional. The Seahawks, Titans and Jaguars (three unimpressive teams if you ask me) were all able to beat the Ravens using this formula. Clearly this is easier said than done, as the Ravens have dominated the Jets and Texans. They’ve beat the Steelers twice, once by 3 and once by 28.

So first key to this game has to be for the 49ers to SCORE FIRST.

Secondly, when the Ravens have fallen behind, they’ve aired it out with Joe Flacco. Inconsistency has defined his career, yet it would be foolish to assume he is incapable of torching the 49ers secondary. Flacco led the Ravens back from 21 points down to beat the Cardinals. Even more impressive, he led game-winning touchdown drive in Pittsburgh to beat the Steelers by 3. The common denominator in all these games was the success of Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin.

So the 49ers secondary CANNOT GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY.

Lastly, the 49ers need to score touchdowns in the red zone. Against Arizona, the 49ers settled for six field goal attempts before they reached the end zone. This can’t happen against the Ravens. I understand that Alex Smith’s goal is to prevent turnovers, and his quality decision-making is the biggest reason why the 49ers are 9-1. But at some point in this game, Smith is going to have to throw the ball into man coverage and trust his receiver to make a play.

In other words, Smith must play AGGRESSIVE IN THE RED ZONE.

Prediction:
The Ravens have got up for every big game they’ve played this year. Crowd noise and a vicious pass rush should keep the 49ers offense in check early in the game, and when the Ravens play from ahead they're very dangerous. I expect the 49ers to absorb some early blows and stay in the game, but ultimately Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense will hold on late in the game to beat the 49ers.
Ravens 16 49ers 13

49ers predictions page

2011-11-23T12:34:00.000-08:00

Below are my 49ers predictions this season. So far I am 5-5 and I'm 6-3-1 against the spread. As you can see, it took me a while to warm up the the 49ers. But now it's hard to deny that they are one of the elite teams in the NFL.

Week 1 49ers 20 Seahawks 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 33 Seahawks 17
http://bit.ly/vV7xh0

Week 2: 49ers 24 Cowboys 23
ACTUAL: Cowboys 27 49ers 24
http://bit.ly/qdThr5

Week 3: Bengals 19 49ers 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 13 Bengals 8
http://bit.ly/n4iJAY

Week 4: Eagles 30 49ers 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 24 Eagles 23
http://bit.ly/q9Gjhk

Week 5: Bucs 23 49ers 20
ACTUAL: 49ers 48 Bucs 3
http://bit.ly/nvAj8X

Week 6: Lions 24 49ers 23
ACTUAL: 49ers 25 Lions 19
http://bit.ly/oFPvKE

Week 8: 49ers 27 Browns 9
ACTUAL: 49ers 20 Browns 10
http://bit.ly/uEXLZ3

Week 9: 49ers 20 Redskins 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 19 Redskins 11
(Stopped posting to Yahoo Contributor Network)

Week 10: 49ers 20 Giants 17
ACTUAL: 49ers 27 Giants 20

Week 11: 49ers 26 Cardinals 13
ACTUAL: 49ers 23 Cardinals 7

Week 12:

Postgame notes: 49ers improve to 9-1

2011-11-20T23:33:00.000-08:00

The 49ers dominated the Cardinals. Yet, they also didn't play well, particularly in the first half.

Just start looking at the mistakes.

Braylon Edwards dropped touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Vernon Davis for sure touchdown.
Alex Smith overthrows Michael Crabtree for sure touchdown.
Two field goals blocked and one missed.

Fortunately, the 49ers played a great third quarter, putting together two touchdown drives, and that was enough to expand the lead to 23 -- which led to a sluggish fourth quarter, and a final score of 23-7.

Once again, the defense was excellent. Overall the 49ers forced five turnovers and continue to lead the league in turnover margin at +17.

Now the 49ers have a short week to prepare for the Baltimore Ravens. When I looked at the stats of the Ravens and Bengals game, I was stunned to see that Baltimore allowed 483 yards.

But it had less to do with bad defense and more to do with perfect throws from Andy Dalton. I'm not sure Alex Smith is capable of such a performance.

Not to say Dalton is better than Smith. (Dalton's three interceptions probably cost the Bengals the game. In comparison, Smith has only thrown four interceptions this season.) I'm just saying that the 49ers cannot get into a gunslinger game and expect to win, especially with Torrey Smith looking like an elite receiver these days. A Dashon Goldson suspension would be devastating with Smith and Anquan Boldin stretching the 49ers defense.

The Ravens run defense has been excellent this season and played well overall on Sunday. But Cedric Benson did have a couple of short touchdown runs. Ray Lewis's absence may have had an impact on those runs. If he can't play on Thursday, the 49ers may be able to have some success running between the tackles.

This will be a huge key to the game, particularly in the red zone. Since the demolition of the Bucs, the 49ers have settled for way too many field goals.

@ Detroit: 3 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Cleveland: 2 field goals and stalled drive at opponent's 1-yard line
@ Washington: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. NYG: 4 field goals, 2 in red zone
vs. Arizona: 6 field goal attempts, three in red zone, one INT in red zone

If the 49ers can't run the ball in the red zone, then you can expect this trend to continue against the Ravens stout defense.

I will post predictions before the game on Thursday, but a few more stats to note.

The Ravens are 5-0 at home this year.
The Ravens three losses have come to teams with a combined record of 12-18.
In the last five weeks, the Ravens point differential is only +3.
The 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread this year.
They are 4-0 on the road this season, looking to be the first team since the 2007 Patriots to go undefeated on the road in the regular season (the Packers are obviously vying for the same record).

How do you beat the 49ers?

2011-11-13T23:47:00.001-08:00

The San Francisco 49ers 8-1 start begs the question: Are they Super Bowl contenders? The debate is hotter than ever after San Francisco’s 27-20 win over the New York Giants on Sunday. How can a team, following eight years of futility, suddenly be so good? Many aren’t buying the 49ers start, suggesting that their poor pass defense and game-manager quarterback will eventually bring them down in the playoffs. But the 49ers have created a winning formula despite these negative perceptions. So, what’s the formula that has led to the 49ers winning seven straight?

First off, Frank Gore has been excellent in five of the last seven games, rushing for 634 yards in that span. Alex Smith has been steady in six of the seven games, tossing nine touchdowns and two interceptions. The 49ers lead the league in rushing defense and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. Lastly, the 49ers have a +13 turnover margin for the season.

So, from this list, it appears that 49ers formula is solid run defense, great running game, steady quarterback play and winning the turnover battle -- a pretty bullet proof formula if you ask me.

But it hasn’t always been that easy.

Against the Eagles the 49ers allowed more than 100 yards rushing. Yet, they still beat the Eagles 24-23 by winning the other three phases.

Against the Lions, Alex Smith was atrocious and the 49ers lost the turnover battle. But a great defense and running game was enough to down Detroit 25-19.

Against the Giants, the 49ers only racked up 50 yards from their running backs. They still managed to beat New York by winning the other three phases.

We’ve also learned a lot about how the 49ers play from behind. First the Bengals tried to beat the 49ers at their own game by running the ball and playing great defense with a second half lead. But the 49ers pulled ahead late in the fourth, winning 13-8.

Then the Eagles tried to add on to the lead with big passing plays. But the 49ers thwarted their attempts and scored 21 unanswered to win.

The Lions decided to abandon the running game entirely, taking the 49ers best unit out of the game. But the 49ers still found a way to win.

So how do you beat these 49ers?

I’d say a great passing offense combined with a great passing defense would be your best bet. The 49ers have only truly needed Lady Luck in two games -- against the Eagles and Lions. The Eagles were the only team to dominate the 49ers pass defense, and the Lions were the only team to totally shut down Alex Smith. If any team could put both together, (The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys come to mind) it would vanquish the 49ers.

But to simply write them off in the playoffs isn’t fair. Alex Smith has proven that he can make plays against good defenses. And I encourage you to ask Matthew Stafford about the 49ers pass defense before you judge.

I think we’ve learned in the last several weeks that the 49ers are for real. They don’t have a glaring weakness, and they boast a few strengths -- special teams, run defense and run offense.

I’m not going to declare that the 49ers are Super Bowl favorites. But before you say, “I hope we get to play the 49ers in the playoffs,” remember that no team has been as consistent as San Francisco in all three phases up to this point in the season.

Curry time

2011-02-13T22:57:00.000-08:00

Thirteen assists, no turnovers and a plus-17.

Add 23 points on 18 shot attempts and you have Stephen Curry, the leader of the Warriors 100-94 win over the Thunder on Sunday at Oracle Arena.

Curry was the best player on the floor in this one. It begs the question, is Curry being unproperly utilized by the Warriors coaching staff?

Or in other words, should Curry have the ball more often than Monta Ellis?

My answer: yes and yes.

Curry IS the Warriors point guard. And because of this, he has more VALUE than Ellis.

At this stage in his career, he's not as good of a defender as Ellis and he may never be the slasher Ellis is.

But Curry can create better than Ellis ever will, and that's what the Warriors need.

The Thunder had no answers, because sometimes, there are no answers.

So give Stephen Curry the ball!
And maybe next year, with the acquistion of Tyson Chandler, the Warriors will be a playoff team.

Week 7 Power rankings

2010-10-25T22:55:00.000-07:00

1. New York Jets 5-1
Don't underrate the Jets offense, ranked fourth in the league in points per game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-1
The Steelers always seem to pull out close games, and that's a credit to Mike Tomlin.
3. Tennessee Titans 5-2
The Kerry Collins to Kenny Britt combo added another dimension to this offense.
4. New York Giants 5-2
Best record in the NFC despite league's most turnovers. The Giants scored 41 points against the Cowboys despite five turnovers. Imagine what this offense could do if it held onto the ball.
5. Baltimore Ravens 5-1
The winless Bills exposed the Ravens defense, but Flacco's performance under pressure keeps this team in the top 5.
6. Indianapolis Colts 4-2
The Colts lost a huge part of their run game and aerial attack with the season-ending injury to Dallas Clark. Can Peyton Manning lead the Colts to the playoffs anyway?
7. New England Patriots 5-1
The Patriots have yet to put it all together, yet they have the league's best record.
8. Atlanta Falcons 5-2
Matt Ryan is playing at an All-Pro level, but the Falcon defense was exposed against the Bengals.
9. Kansas City Chiefs 5-2
The Chiefs running game is the best in the league, and their run defense is in the top 5.
10. Philadelphia Eagles 4-3
The Eagles had the Titans on the ropes before they imploded in the fourth quarter. The pass defense is a concern.
11. Green Bay Packers 4-3
Without a running game, I fear that Aaron Rodgers won't last the whole season.
12. Houston Texans 4-2
The Texans offense is potent, but the Texans defense is the league's worst in yards allowed per game.
13. Miami Dolphins 3-3
The Dolphins would be a sure playoff team in the NFC. As is, they will be a nine-win team that watches the playoffs from home.
14. New Orleans Saints 4-3
The Saints would not be a playoff team in the AFC. As is, they will win 10 games by default in the NFC and make the playoffs.
15. Washington Redskins 4-3
The Redskins had no business beating the Bears. But the Skins continue to win ugly despite poor play from Donovan McNabb.
16. Chicago Bears 4-3
Jay Cutler is holding this team back. Four interceptions is unacceptable, especially when the Bears defense is second in the league in points allowed per game.
17. San Diego Chargers 2-5
The league's best offense and defense in terms of total yards has two wins. Why? An awful turnover margin.
18. Cincinnati Bengals 2-4
I like the fight the Bengals showed against the Falcons. The offense is capable of scoring 30 on any team, but Carson Palmer continues to be inconsistent.
19. Minnesota Vikings 2-4
The Vikings have all the tools to be a great team, but Brett Favre is playing as bad as he ever has in his career.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2
Josh Freeman wants the ball in the fourth quarter. And in a weak NFC, Freeman may be able to get the Bucs to nine wins and a playoff berth.
21. Seattle Seahawks 4-2
Pete Carroll has turned the Seahawk defense around. The group is ranked fifth in points allowed per game.
22. Oakland Raiders 3-4
Darren McFadden's explosiveness makes the Raiders a scary team. But before the Raiders can move up this list, they must put together a two-game win streak.
23. St. Louis Rams 3-4
The Rams defense has allowed more than 18 points in just one game. Still, a terrible offensive line will keep St. Louis from the playoffs.
24. Dallas Cowboys 1-5
The injury to Tony Romo will halt this offense, and the defense just allowed 41 points to the Giants.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-4
Defense continues to be awful in Jacksonville.
26. Cleveland Browns 2-5
The Browns stunned the Saints with a great defensive effort. But Colt McCoy still doesn't look like an NFL quarterback.
27. Detroit Lions 1-5
The Lions have a positive point differential, but they have failed to pull out close games. The return of Matthew Stafford may change that.
28. San Francisco 49ers 1-6
How bad is David Carr? He made Alex Smith look like an All-Pro after giving the game to the Panthers. Although the 49ers secondary didn't help, giving 300 yards to Matt Moore.
29. Carolina Panthers 1-5
The Panthers still can't run the ball or stop the run, but David Gettis emerged as a threat with two touchdowns against the 49ers.
30. Arizona Cardinals 3-3
The Cardinals were abysmal against the Seahawks. Max Hall is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL.
31. Buffalo Bills 0-6
The Bills defense is horrendous, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is emerging as one of the league's best young quarterbacks.
32. Denver Broncos 2-5
When you lose by 45 at home to the Raiders, you are the worst team in the NFL.

NFL Quarterback rankings

2010-10-18T21:52:00.001-07:00

1. Peyton Manning
He has a Super Bowl. His team has won at least 12 games in every year since 2003. He’s easily the best regular-season quarterback in NFL history.
2. Philip Rivers
Leading the Chargers to a 13-win season last year was impressive. Rivers has played OK in the playoffs, posting a 3-4 record, a record that would be better if Nate Kaeding could make a kick in the playoffs. In the last three years, Rivers QB rating is 105. That’s the best in the NFL.
3. Drew Brees
Anyway you look at it, Brees was the best quarterback in the NFL in 2009. His 109.6 QB Rating and Super Bowl ring are evidence of that. He’s off to another quick start in 2010, with nine touchdown passes in five games.
4. Aaron Rodgers
His career QB Rating is 96.4 and in his one playoff start he threw for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns. It’s a small sample size, but when it’s all said and done Rodgers may be known as the best quarterback of the ‘10s decade.
5. Tom Brady
The Patriots haven’t won a Super Bowl since 2004, and Brady hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2007-08 season. Still, I want the ball in Brady’s hands when the game’s on the line more than any other quarterback in the NFL.
6. Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben actually played pretty poorly in the 2008 season, but the Steelers still won the Super Bowl. He’s made some great throws on the NFL’s biggest stages, and he has the second most Super Bowl rings of active players.
7. Tony Romo
Romo is the biggest enigma on this list. Statistically, he’s one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, yet you would never know it if you listened to many Dallas fans. A deep playoff run would do wonders for his reputation, but the Cowboys first need to make the playoffs, which seems unlikely at this moment.
8. Matt Schaub
Schaub threw for 4,770 yards and 29 touchdowns last year, and yet he’s only eighth on this list. Why? The Texans have never made the playoffs.
9. Mike Vick
He’s played 10 quarters of good football, and now I have him as a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. Seems a bit ridiculous, but Vick looks as good as ever, which is saying a lot considering some of the games he had when he was a Falcon.
10. Brett Favre
How quickly we forget that Favre threw for 4,200 yards and 33 touchdowns last season. Favre has looked awful thus far, but I’m giving me one more shot to win me over.
11. Matt Ryan
Ryan has put up consistent above-average numbers for the Falcons in his career. But, I still haven’t seen Ryan put this team on his shoulders and win a big game. Until then, he’ll stay outside the top 10.
12. Kyle Orton
I never would have thought that I’d have Kyle Orton ranked higher than Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb, but I can’t ignore how well Orton has played to begin this season. He’s thrown for 1,733 and eight touchdowns in five games.
13. Eli Manning
For all the games which Manning has played terrible in the regular season, he was unbelievable in the 2007-08 playoffs. Because of that run, he’s the biggest wild card on this list. He has the talent to be the best quarterback on this list, but he also often plays like one of the worst.
14. Donovan McNabb
McNabb has produced just one deep playoff run since the 2004-05 season. He’s lost much of his mobility that made one of the best quarterbacks in the league a decade ago. His 81.9 QB Rating this year is rather pedestrian, yet he still has the ability to lead the Redskins to the playoffs.
15. Vince Young
Vince Young is a winner. He was a winner in college, and I believe he will have the Titans is playoffs for years to come. But his career 74.2 QB Rating isn’t good enough to be ranked any higher on this list than No. 15.
16. Mark Sanchez
Sanchez’s last eight games including playoffs: 6-2 record, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. Sanchez last season: 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. I still think in the back of my mind that Sanchez will hit some sophomore struggles soon.
17. Carson Palmer
18. Chad Henne
19. Joe Flacco
20. David Garrard
21. Jay Cutler
22. Josh Freeman
23. Matt Cassel
24. Alex Smith
25. Matthew Stafford
26. Jason Campbell
27. Matt Hasselbeck
28. Sam Bradford
29. Ryan Fitzpatrick
30. Jake Delhomme
31. Max Hall
32. Jimmy Clausen

NFL Power Rankings

2010-10-12T14:34:00.000-07:00

1. New York Jets (4-1)
They can run on anyway, they can shut down anyone’s offense and Mark Sanchez hasn’t thrown an interception. I’m starting to believe in this team.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
The defense is back to it’s pre-2009 ways and the return of Ben Roethlisberger should make this offense potent. Will Big Ben struggle to get back into the flow of things?

3. Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
The Jets, Steelers and Ravens all have smash mouth defenses and solid running games. But why do I trust Roethlisberger and Sanchez more than I trust Flacco?

4. Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
It pains me to watch this offensive line fail to run block, yet Peyton Manning bails this entire offense out over and over again. He’s the best player in the league and he makes the Colts the favorite in the South.

5. Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Since starting 0-6 last year, the Titans are 11-4. That’s impressive, but considering the Colts have won at least 12 since 2003, I’ll leave the Titans as the second best team in the AFC South.

6. New England Patriots (3-1)
The best coach-quarterback tandem continues to make the Pats a threat. Rex Ryan has more talent than Bill Belichick, but when December comes around, Tom Brady will be ready.

7. Atlanta Falcons (4-1)
The Falcons moved to the top spot in the NFC this week because Michael Turner broke out for 140 yards. Atlanta needs more of this if it wants to stay atop the NFC South.

8. New York Giants (3-2)
After two embarrassing losses, the G-men have looked as good as anyone in the league in the last two weeks, whooping Chicago and Houston. The defense is back to its pre-2009 form, so look out.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)
This team is a little beat up right now, but when healthy, I see an aerial attack with weapons, a solid run game with LeSean McCoy, a dynamic quarterback in Mike Vick, and a solid defense.

10. Chicago Bears (4-1)
I don’t trust Jay Cutler at all, but Lovie Smith has this Bears defense playing as well as it did in its Super Bowl year. When Matt Forte tops 100 yards like he did against Carolina, the Bears are almost unbeatable.

11. New Orleans Saints (3-2)
The defending Super Bowl champs have hit a lull in the season, losing two of their last three, including a 30-20 loss to the hapless Cardinals. No need to panic. Drew Brees will have this team back in no time.

12. Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Speaking of panicking, the Packers might want to do just that. Aaron Rodgers has a concussion, the running game is weak and the defense is giving up too many big plays.

13. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
The loss to the Colts taught me a few things. 1. This defense is for real, 2. Matt Cassel and the passing game needs to improve, and 3. Kansas City is here to stay.

14. Dallas Cowboys (1-3)
Dallas is 1-3 and has a brutal upcoming schedule. This team is unraveling fast, yet I still think it is the most talented team in the whole NFC. Sometimes talent doesn’t bring wins, just ask the 49ers.

15. Houston Texans (3-2)
If Houston wants to reach the playoffs, Matt Schaub needs to play better than he did against the Giants, when he completed less than 50 percent of his passes with two turnovers.

16. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Brett Favre finally found a rhythm in the second half against the Jets. With Randy Moss, the Vikings could turn this around really fast, especially with the Packers struggling and Cutler’s shaky psyche.

17. Washington Redskins (3-2)
The Redskins are 3-2, but they have the worst defense in terms of yards allowed. Eventually, allowing those big plays will cost Washington.

18. San Diego Chargers (2-3)
Philip Rivers can’t do anything more for the Chargers. The rest of the team is letting him down time and time again. I call out the defense and the running game for San Diego to step up before it’s too late.

19. Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)
Carson Palmer’s 78.3 QB Rating is the biggest reason why the Bengals are struggling. He has weapons, but his accuracy is simply not good enough.

20. Miami Dolphins (2-2)
Two home losses to the NFC East’s two best teams has put the Dolphins in a huge hole. Chad Henne must bounce back fast after his Monday Night debacle against the Patriots.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
Maybe the NFL’s biggest surprise, the Bucs are playing great and Josh Freeman is playing at a high level. This week’s matchup vs. New Orleans will determine if they are for real.

22. Denver Broncos (2-3)
An abysmal running game is holding the Broncos back. Kyle Orton continues to shine and the defense is average, but when a team is averaging 2.3 yards per carry on the ground, it won’t win many.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)
The Jags are tied for first in the AFC South, but they wont be their for long. Their defense can’t stop anybody, and that will have the Jacksonville in last by the end
of October.

24. Oakland Raiders (2-3)
Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski have traded off playing awful and well, but the Raider run game has been a constant, averaging 134 yards per game. Beating San Diego was a huge confidence boost.

25. Detroit Lions (1-4)
The Lions have been in every game this year, and last week they hammered the Rams 44-6. Matt Stafford should return soon, giving Lions’ fans more optimism than they’ve had in the previous two years.

26. Cleveland Browns (1-4)
The Browns have also competed, but their brutal schedule will keep them toward the bottom of the power rankings. I don’t see a win on the schedule till they play Carolina on Nov. 28.

27. Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
The Seahawks have played great at home and awful on the road. Fortunately, they may not have to win a road game to win the NFC West. The Seahawks have the most realistic chance at wining the West.

28. San Francisco 49ers (0-5)
I still believe the 49ers would beat any team in the NFC West on a neutral field. Next up is a must win against the Raiders. A loss would likely mean the end of Alex Smith in San Francisco.

29. St. Louis Rams (2-3)
The Rams have put together a couple solid performances at home, but when a team loses by 38 to Detroit, it automatically falls in the power rankings.

30. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
They rank 27th in defense and 31st in offense, yet they are leading a division. I don’t buy it. Max Hall is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. Their minus-50 in point differential will catch up to them quickly.

31. Buffalo Bills (0-5)
The defense is allowing 32.2 points per game. Yikes! The offense isn’t much better. C.J. Spiller has only 80 rushing yards this year. Drafting him makes no sense if Buffalo isn’t going to play him.

32. Carolina Panthers (0-5)
This offense is so abysmal, it’s hard to explain. It averages 10 points per game and only 236 total yards. By the end of the year, Panther fans will be begging ownership to get rid of Matt

The Wildcard Leaders

2009-07-31T00:33:00.000-07:00

Despite having the worst offense in terms of on base percentage, the 2009 San Francisco Giants are leading the Wildcard heading into August.

The pitching staff leads baseball with a 3.51 era, but that may not be enough for the players if the Giants don't start getting on base and scoring more runs.

The Giants added Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko in two trades to do improve the offense. Both players are upgrades in on base percentage from the previous starters (Juan Uribe and Travis Ishikawa).

But, the question remains: Did the Giants do enough before the trade deadline to bolster their offense?

San Francisco is 27th in runs scored, and 29th in OPS and homers (out of 30 major league teams).

With that type of offensive anemia, I would say the Giants needed to do a lot more before the trade deadline passed. But still, the Giants lead the wildcard and Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are probably the top two Cy Young candidates in the NL.

Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito have both found a rhythm after the all star break. The Giants need a fifth starter with Ryan Sadowski falling apart, and if the Giants are really serious about contending this year, that starter has got to be Madison Bumgarner.

After selling off two top prospects, it is time to go for it all. I'm not just talking about the the wilcard, I'm talking about the World Series. That's what the Giants need to win to make these trades worth anything.

Golden State Warriors Summer Update

2009-07-31T00:22:00.000-07:00

In case you missed it, the Warriors drafted Stephen Curry with their first round draft pick and then played some Summer League Basketball.

Curry is not a big guard who can offset Monta Ellis' poor defensive abilities. Instead, he is a Monta Ellis clone, at least on defense. On offense, Curry could be an explosive three-point shooter. In time, he may also become a great distributor.

But, the Warriors took the best player available and I can't complain. The best big man available was Jordan Hill, who has all the tools to become the next Hakim Warrick, which is pretty underwhelming. The Warriors front line will once again be a little thin, but the Warriors need to find out if Anthony Randolph and/or Brandan Wright can be effective NBA players.

Stephen Curry has the tools to be a Richard Hamilton/Reggie Miller scorer. He is more likely to morph into his dad Del Curry, a prolific shooter with not much else to boast. But the potential is there, and that is worth drafting.

Anthony Randolph participated in this year's Summer League, and all signs say that he was one of the best players in Las Vegas. I can't wait to see Randolph play a full season next year. Many NBA scouts have compared Randolph to Lamar Odom.

Anthony Morrow also tore up Summer League, scoring an NBA Summer League record 47 points in a game. He may be the best catch and shoot player in the NBA. Not bad for the 2008 undrafted free agent.

Giants trades "disgraceful"

2009-07-30T23:49:00.000-07:00

Here were the Giants three options before the trade deadline in a nutshell.

Option 1: To stand pat with the team or to trade for small upgrades without giving up any top prospects.

Option 2: To go after Matt Holiday, Victor Martinez or Adrian Gonzalez with a package of prospects including Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes.

Option 3: To trade Scott Barnes and Tim Alderson for two miniscule upgrades.

We chose option 3, which is undoubtedly the worst possible scenario.

Ryan Garko is 22nd in first baseman OPS and he has no speed or defense whatsoever. With the Indians in super sell mode and not one contending team desperate for a first baseman, Garko could have been had for Kevin Frandsen. We certainly did not have to give up Scott Barnes, a flame throwing lefty who is arguably the third best pitching prospect in the Giants farm system.

In short, we got ripped off. But Garko is a clear upgrade to this offense, and I would not have even wrote a Brian Sabean hate blog if the Giants ended here. Instead he did the unthinkable. He traded highly coveted Tim Alderson, the second best Giants' pitching prospect and a certain big league arm for a three-time all-star and career .300 hitter named Freddy Sanchez.

On the surface it sounds pretty fair. But apparently the Giants only look on the surface.

Sanchez' On base percentage is .334 and a career .336. His OPS last year was .669, 2nd worst in major league baseball for second basemen.

Sanchez is a small upgrade over Juan Uribe at second, but overall he gives the Giants another hitter who struggles with plate discipline and hitting for power.

And we traded Tim Alderson for him. We could have traded for Marco Scutaro, whose on base percentage is 50 points higher, for a prospect worse than Scott Barnes, let alone Tim Alderson.

We may have been able to trade Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes to land Victor Martinez or Matt Holliday. Instead, we got two below average major league starters.

Did the 2009 Giants starting lineup improve... Yes...
Did the organization improve... Not even close...

Giants lead Wild Card

2009-06-14T01:15:00.000-07:00

Aaron Rowand (.304 average) is getting hits in bunches.
Pablo Sandoval (11 walks) is working the count.
Matt Cain (8-1) is winning games... with run support...

OK. OK. I must be dreaming. In 2008, these Giants players (.271 average for Rowand, 4 walks in 2008 for Sandoval, 8 wins in 22 more starts for Cain) weren't this good, and the Giants were never close to contending.

Times have changed.

61 games into the season, the San Francisco Giants lead the Wild Card race. Spearheaded by the second best team ERA in baseball (3.65), the Giants are now five games over .500 for the first time since 2004 with a 33-28 record.

After starting the year 2-7, I thought the Giants were in rebuilding mode. I thought wrong.

Rowand, Sandoval and Cain have been key contributors to the Giants surge.

And it gets better. Brian Wilson had a save without going to a three-ball count, striking out the side June 10th at Arizona. Wilson has now successfully saved his last 8 games, and has not walked a batter in his last four appearances.

Barry Zito's ERA has dropped a full point (5.15 in '08 4.09 in '09). Zito has pitched better than his ERA indicates, or his record (3-6), with his two best starts being wasted by the Giants quite bats.

Tim Lincecum threw a shutout Friday, the second of his career. Randy Johnson followed with a dominate outing (7 innings 4 hits 2 earned 1 walk 3 strikeouts), and Matt Cain could secure a sweep for the Giants tonight against the A's.

The question is -- can the Giants keep it going?

The bullpen currently looks great, with Sergio Romo pitching the big moments instead of Bob Howry. Jeremy Affeldt has been solid and the aforementioned Wilson has never looked so comfortable on the mound.

The starting staff, dare I say it, should only get better. You can expect much of the same from Lincecum and Cain, but its Zito (4.09 ERA), Johnson (4.89 ERA) and Sanchez (4.84 ERA) who have room for improvement.

The big question mark is the offense as a whole.

Spring Football

2009-05-17T22:29:00.000-07:00

Pablo's walk-off homer vs. Nationals

2009-05-13T10:44:00.000-07:00

Giants take series in LA

2009-05-10T23:27:00.000-07:00

Rich Aurilia called it a "Huge Win". I will call it "the biggest win in years."

The Giants scratched and clawed their way to a 7-5, 13-inning win against the Dodgers on Sunday, taking the series from their inner-state rivals.

Tim Lincecum allowed four runs to the Dodgers in six innings, yet the Giants hitters, particulary Randy Winn and Emmanuel Burriss, picked up the Cy Young Award winner in come-from-behind fashion.

With the Giants down one in the eigth, Winn, Aaron Rowand and Burriss hit back-to-back-back singles, and Nate Schierholz's sac fly tied the game at 4.

In a similar 12th inning, Burriss slapped a single to left advancing Winn, who singled earlier, to third. Rich Aurilia knocked in Winn with a sac fly and the Giants had the lead.

Brian Wilson served up a home run to Casey Blake in the bottom of 12th, and I began to think that we were going to lose another heartbreaker to the dodgers.

But, the Giants had luck on their side in the 13th. After an infield single by Edgar Renteria and a walk, I repeat, a walk to Pablo Sandoval, Steve Holm hit a grounder to Furcal. Furcal could have turned two, but he misplayed the ball, and the official scoring was an infield hit for Holm.

Winn followed with a two-run single down the left field line, and lo and behold, the Giants were victorious.

Burriss, who I criticized a week ago for poor hitting, is now hitting .287, four points lower than the team leader Bengie Molina. He had four hits in the win and two of the Giants four hits in Saturday's 8-0 loss to the Dodgers.

Winn also had four hits, but he scored four runs and had two RBIs. Essentially, he accounted for six of the Giants seven runs in a game the team had to have.

On Friday, Barry Zito pitched out of numerous jams and recorded a solid 6 innings and one run allowed. The Giants would score three against Dodgers ace Chad Billingsley, and the bullpen held on for a key 3-1 win.

The Giants pitching, sans Sanchez, looks great, but the offense still needs some type of upgrade. The Giants are one of two teams in baseball without a home run from the first base position. Any one is an upgrade to what they have now.

As for the team, well, they are last in baseball in runs scored. Rowand needs to bat higher than .227, Renteria needs to be a steady .300 hitter and the first base position has to help out the offense.

When that happens, the Giants could be very dangerous.

Down goes Ramirez

2009-05-07T22:52:00.000-07:00

This off-season, I was that Giants fan who could not believe Brian Sabean and Co. were not pursuing Manny Ramirez with all their money. To me, Ramirez was the only player available on the market that could make the Giants offense dangerous.

When the Giants essentially told the baseball world they weren't interested in him and the Dodgers got him, I was admitably angry. How could we sign oldies Randy Johnson and Edgar Renteria and then let the game's most feared hitter go to our arch rival without a fight?

Suddenly, we look like geniuses.

Ramirez tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs today, and boy am I happy about it. That is 50 games that the Dodgers will not have Ramirez, and conveniently it starts right before the Giants start a three-game series at Dodger Stadium.

I wrote in an earlier post that the Ramirez signing was the turning point in the NL West race. Now, with Ramirez down, the door is open for the Giants to contend for the NL West crown.

And as good news seems to come in bunches today, the Diamondbacks fired manager Bob Melvin, showing how desperate Arizona is after an awful start to the season.

The day got better when the games started. The Giants were spearheaded by two homers and five RBIs by Bengie Molina as they took down the Rockies 8-3. The Diamondbacks lost again, albeit to the Padres, 4-3 in 10 innings.

Best of all, the Dodgers scored six in the first inning, and still found a way to lose at home to the Washington Nationals. The Nats scored 10 unanswered runs, and Casey Blake was retired in the ninth with the potential tying-run on first. The Dodgers offense still scored 9 runs without Ramirez, but the loss ended their ML record 13 game home win streak to begin the season.

Next up for the Giants: Barry Zito vs. Chad Billingsley

Billingsley has started against the Giants twice and has thrown 14 1/3 innings and allowed just 3 earned runs -- both Dodger victories. But Zito has looked ace-like as of late, and without Manny in the lineup, he could throw another gem.

In any event, the Giants have a golden opportunity to take over this division in the next 49 games before LA's best hitter comes back.

E-portfolio

2009-05-06T10:36:00.000-07:00

Second Round NBA playoff predictions

InDesign Graduation

Photoshop

Website

Giants Update: Pitching carrying team

2009-05-06T10:03:00.000-07:00

I owe Barry Zito a momentary apologize.

Since I wrote a lengthy post in April titled "Can We Get Our Money Back" in reference to Zito taking the Giants money and not producing, he has simply been dominate.

In Zito's last three starts, he has thrown 20 1/3 innings and allowed only three runs, all coming in one inning.

The Giants as a whole are over .500 25 games into the season for what has to be the first time since 2004. I'm not going to lie, I'm pretty excited about this fact.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers have decided to win every game at home this year, thus the Giants are still 5.5 games back in the NL West Standings.

Regardless, Tim Lincecum dominated the Cubs yesterday in a 6-2 win. Matt Cain is throwing the ball great this year and receiving more run support than he has got in his whole career. Randy Johnson's age may become a factor at some point this year, but right now his fastball is in the low 90s and his slider is still as dirty as ever. Even Jonathan Sanchez, at least until last start, has shown a new perpensity for control.

The Giants offense has been pretty pitiful though. Edgar Renteria is hitting in the .260s, not what you want from your $9 million shortstop. And Randy Winn is hitting in the .220s, but you can bank a summer surge from Winn, who always ends up batting around .300.

Pablo Sandoval swings at everything, and I'm starting to believe that he may have a very successful baseball career doing so. A .317 average this year and a .344 average last year can't be a complete fluke. After facing hundreds of big-league pitchers, Sandoval simply chases bad pitches and lines them into the allies like they are fastball right down the middle.

The Ishikawa and Burriss experiment is failing right now, and before long the Giants will need an upgrade at first and second if they want to contend for a World Series Ring.

Hiller finishes off Sharks

2009-04-28T20:25:00.000-07:00

Two seconds into Game 6 between the Anaheim Ducks and the San Jose Sharks, Sharks assistant captain Joe Thornton and Ducks assistant captain Ryan Getzlaf gave it a go. After a long fight which featured many punches landed -- more by Thornton -- the Sharks seemed ready to storm into the Pond and force a Game 7 in San Jose.

It turned out they picked a fight with the wrong team.

Ducks goalie Jonas Hiller was once again phenomenal, stopping 36 of 37 shots, and the Ducks stunned the Sharks 4-1 to advance to the second round of the playoffs.

The Presidents' Trophy winning Sharks seemed poised for a deep run in the playoffs, but they simply could not get the puck past Hiller in the entire series.

In the six games, Hiller stopped 220 out of 230 shots for an unbelievable .957 save percentage.
In comparison, the normally formidable Sharks goalie Evgeni Nabokov had a mediocre .890 save percentage.

The No. 1 key to any series by most experts accounts is the play of the goalie, and Hiller was much better than Nabokov.

However, blaming the whole series on Nabokov would be criminal.

Other than Game 5, Thornton was nonexistent. Similarly, captain Patrick Marleau had just three points in six games. He did score the game-winning goal in the Sharks two wins, but in the other four games, Marleau was a non-factor.

Meanwhile, Corey Perry had three big goals for the Ducks and Bobby Ryan beat Nabokov four times.

On the defensive end, Christian Ehrhoff, Doug Murray and Brag Lukowich had no points in the series and turned the puck over too often. Marc-Edouard Vlasic had a nightmarish series, posting a minus- 6 in five on five action. Rob Blake and Dan Boyle were outplayed throughout the series by Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, shown by a minus-6 combined by the Sharks two-some and a combined plus-9 by the Ducks dynamic duo.

But, if I had to point to one player who dominated this series, it was Ryan Getzlaf. He had two goals, the first sealing Game 1 and the second sealing Game 6, and six assists. His eight points led the series, and his plus-5 was second best.

More importantly, he took it to Joe Thornton repeatedly.

Thornton has a history of poor playoff performances, and Getzlaf never let him get going. And when Thornton finally did dominate a game during Game 5, Getzlaf picked that fight.

Getzlaf may have lost the fight, but he ultimately won the war.

Sharks win pivotal Game 3

2009-04-22T15:50:00.000-07:00

My last post suggested that the Sharks may struggle to win in the first round against Anaheim. But, under no circumstances did I expect the Sharks to lose the first two games of a series at home.

After all, the Sharks were 32-5-4 in the regular season at home, including no back to back home losses in regulation.

Unfortunately, it happened.

The Sharks had been struggling to put the puck in the net down the stretch. There struggles continued due in large part to the play Jonas Hiller. Hiller saved 77 of 79 shots in the first two games, and the Ducks claimed a 2-0 lead despite being outshot by 36 in the two games combined.

The Sharks had to have Game 3, and they knew they were going to need get traffic to the net. Defenseman Dan Boyle crashed the net and scored two goals, Rob Blake had a goal and Patrick Marleau tipped in the winner in the Sharks 4-3 victory.

And that nonexistent power-play that doomed the Sharks in the first two games showed up. They were 2 for 4 with the man advantage, including Marleau's winner with less than ten minutes to go.

The question is -- has Hiller lost his touch?

If the Sharks can continue to apply pressure to Hiller, a comeback may be within their grasp.

Sharks win Presidents' Trophy

2009-04-11T22:07:00.000-07:00

Had someone told me going into this year that the Sharks would have the no. 1 overall seed going into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, I would have been ecstatic.

I think it is worth celebrating the amazing regular season that the Sharks had. 117 points is more than I could have imagined. The addition of Dan Boyle and Rob Blake have made the defense formidable, and Devin Setoguchi and Joe Pavelski may very well develop into stars of the NHL if they aren't already.

Yet, something doesn't feel quite right about this team.

I've said it before and I'll say it again; the Sharks have not played great Hockey since mid-January.

Today's 4-3 loss to the Kings once again got me worried. Nabokov saved only 20 of 24 shots and the offense was non-existent without the power play.

I worry because San Jose's opponent in the first round will be St. Louis or Anaheim, and those teams have won 8 of their last 11 games.

Most Sharks fans would tell me I have little to worry about in the first round, but the second round could mark the end for the Sharks. Their opponent will likely be Calgary or Chicago, and each team has proven that they can match up with the Sharks man for man. Chicago particularly scares the crap out of me.

If we play Chicago, goaltending will be the key. If Nabokov outplays Khabibulin, the Sharks will advance. So, I think the Sharks will get by in seven games.

If the Sharks get to the Conference Finals, they will likely meet the Detroit Red Wings. Fortunately, the Sharks have home ice, which is absolutely crucial considering how poorly the Sharks played at Joe Louis Arena (outscored 10-1 in two games).

But, I see the Sharks folding in that series. Joe Thornton has not played well lately, Patrick Marleau will be shut down by Nicklas Lidstrom, and the rest of the Sharks can't score the way the Wings can.

Unless Detroit's goalie situation completely falls apart, the Sharks run should end there in six games.

Can we get our money back?

2009-04-10T23:13:00.000-07:00

I have this "friend" who plays Major League Baseball. He has a below-average fastball, and his offspeed pitches don't get easy outs, which ultimately makes his a mediocre pitcher.

My friend signed a 7-year, $126 million contract in December 2006. That means that the team he is on still owes him more than $70 million dollars.

My friend is Barry Zito, and I am beginning to question if his signing by the Giants was the worst in sports history.

Every so often a player signs a lucrative deal and has a season-ending injury. The fact that so much money is being devoted to that injured player costs his team dearly, but what Zito is doing to the Giants goes beyond that.

In 2007, Zito had an average 4.53 era and the Giants had a record of 14-20 when he started. This stat line is not exactly worthy of the richest contract in baseball, but considering how much he has regressed since then, the Giants would take those stats.

In 2008, Zito was a train wreck. His 5.15 era was one of the worst for all healthy starting pitchers, and the the Giants record when he started was 13-19.

If someone showed me that a pitcher had a 5.15 era and 17 losses in 32 starts, I would tell that team to send that pitcher to the minor leagues because that pitcher is ultimately making his team a lot worse.

So going back to my original point, Barry Zito isn't just making a lot of money and not producing. He is actually making the Giants much worse and taking around 20 percent of their payroll with him.

I don't think I have ever said this, but I believe Barry Zito is the worst player on the team, and he is making the most money. The Giants would absolutely be better off releasing him and going with a minor league pitcher. I guarantee you Giants minor leaguer pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson could out-pitch Zito.

Anyways, the whole reason for this rant comes from Zito's performance tonight against the San Diego Padres. Five of the first six San Diego batters reached base against as the Padres scored three first inning runs and made Zito throw 39 pitches.

Optimistic Giants fans would point out that Zito settled down after the rough start and allowed just one run in his next three innings. But, he still threw 93 pitches before leaving after just four innings, and the Giants lost the game 7-2.

The Padres are supposed to be the worst hitting team in baseball this season and Zito could not make it past the fourth. I find that difficult to swallow.

Many Bay Area fans are puzzled by Zito's ineffectiveness as a Giant after being such a solid pitcher as an Athletic.

Zito's fastball has lost a little bit of velocity, his change-up has lost some effectiveness and his curve ball has lost some byte. This could be a result of the A's overworking him years ago, but that still does not entirely explain how he has gone from a Cy Young winner to a disaster.

It is clear to me that the mental side of the game has destroyed Zito. He repeatedly walks hitters because he is afraid to attack the strike zone with his fastball. It is as if there is something in his head preventing him from being the pitcher he was in Oakland.

All in all, I don't see Zito ever turning it around, and I advise Giants fans to give up hope. Nothing is going to make his fastball faster and his curve ball curve more (besides steroids, which is a whole different article).

I hope I am completely wrong and Zito wins four Cy Young awards as a Giant and shoves them in my face. But until then, could we get please get our money back?

Tragedy hits baseball

2009-04-09T23:24:00.000-07:00

When Los Angeles Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart left the mound Wednesday, I only thought about the bright future ahead of him.

You can imagine the shock I had when I woke up this morning.

This article from the Associated press said Nick Adenhart was killed by a drunk driver at around 12:30 A.M. Thursday morning. For one day, this blog will get away from who won and recognize what counts.

Adenhart's death is a stunning reminder to value what you have. Right this moment, an earthquake could strike the place you live and injure a person you love. That's why it is so important to live life to the absolute fullest.

As I mourned the tragic news, I saw a replay of what happened to Joe Martinez in the ninth inning of the Giants 7-1 win over the Brewers. Martinez' change-up was hit squarely by Brewers center fielder Mike Cameron. In a millisecond, the ball struck Martinez above his right eye, appearing to momentarily knock Martinez out.

Minutes later, Martinez looked fine, and it appeared that he was going to walk off the field under his own power until Giants management forced him to stay down. Hopefully, Martinez recovers fully and gets another opportunity to pitch in the majors. But, there is no telling if Martinez has any brain damage or eye damage that could affect his life. And even if he does fully recover, there is no way to predict his mental state when he returns to the mound.

Something about Adenhart's youth is particularly disturbing about this news. The tragedy reminds me of Darryl Kile and Corey Lidle dying suddenly in the past decade.

R.I.P. Nick Adenhart

Stop the Presses... The Giants Can Hit!

2009-04-08T15:33:00.000-07:00

Last year, the Giants often struggled to score 10 runs in a week. After one game this year, they are averaging 10 runs a game.
The Giants defeated the Brewers 10-6 behind an Opening Day offense that slugged out three home runs and six extra base hits. Aaron Rowand looked healthy for the first time as a Giant, when he bombed a two-run homer in the fourth inning and doubled in a run in the seventh.

The first inning was a perfect example of Giants small ball. Shortstop Edgar Renteria singled in his first at bat as a Giant, and Fred Lewis followed with a base hit. With two outs, Pablo Sandoval was hit by a pitch to load the bases, bringing up Spring Training slugger Travis Ishikawa. He ripped a Jeff Suppan pitch for a bases-clearing triple, giving 2008 Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum an early three-run cushion.

Lincecum could not hold lead, giving up two runs in the second inning and one run in third. He left after just three innings of work and 78 pitches thrown.

Lincecum had no control of his fastball which lead to him falling behind nearly every Brewer hitter. But don't fear, Lincecum still had his usual dominating stuff as shown by his five strikeouts. What is more impressive is that his Giants teammates picked him up after the poor performance.

Rowand's homer in the 4th put the Giants ahead 6-5, and they never looked back. Bengie Molina hit a solo homer in the seventh that put the Giants up three, and Rowand's rbi double two batters later made it 9-5.

Randy Winn then went deep in the 8th off of Jorge Julio, and Brian Wilson ended the Brewers last rally when he struck out Jason Kendall with two outs in the ninth.

The Return of "BoomDizzle"

2009-03-18T10:16:00.001-07:00

You remember him dunking on Kirilenko.
You remember when his buzzer-beater stunned the Celtics.
You remember him as the leader of the "We Believe" 2007 Warriors.
You remember Baron Davis, and last night, he returned.

Davis led the Clippers with 29 points in 7 assists, showing off his superior strength and creativity, but Monta Ellis stole the show in the Warriors 127-120 win.

Davis, who has had a tumultuous season for the Clippers, struggled to stay in front of the considerably quicker and younger point guard Ellis.

In fact, Ellis dominated the game similar to how Baron dominated games in year's past. Ellis not only got to the rim, scoring 29 points on 13 of 19 shooting, but also played under control with six assists and only two turnovers.

The Warriors defense was spotty all game, showing defensive lapses that allowed Zach Randolph and Al Thornton to get easy buckets. But, after giving up 154 two nights ago to the Suns, 120 sounds rather stingy.

Overall, Davis looked as if he has lost a lot of quickness and lift. He showed a willingness to stay on the perimeter and jack up threes, making 4 out of 8. When he did drive in, Ronny Turiaf was able to block his shot because he could not get off the ground.

Meanwhile, Ellis looked fantastic for the first time all season. At one point I said, "Baron Who," when Ellis drew the defense and threw an alley-oop to Anthony Randolph for a dunk, which is shown in this game recap. It reminding of a play Baron would have made in his four years as a Warrior.

The Warriors win capped a homestand in which they finished 3-1. Ellis scored 103 points in the four games. Hopefully, this is a preview to the Warriors 2010 season.

I was shocked when Baron left the Warriors to go to Los Angeles, but now I do not want him back. Baron is run down, and Monta has proven that he can do anything Baron did physically. But, what Monta has yet to show is that energy and intensity that Baron provided. We believed in Baron. When he left, we all lost that belief, and it is up to Monta to bring that belief back.

Healthy Nabokov Carrying Sharks

2009-03-15T22:23:00.000-07:00

In a press conference days ago, head coach Todd McLellan called the Sharks "fragile." After losing five out of six, words such as struggling and falling apart might come to mind as well.

The Sharks needed a spark to get back on track, and goalie Evgeni Nabokov provided that spark.

After missing the last seven games due to injury, Nabokov stymied the Los Angeles Kings in a 2-1 shootout victory. He stopped 23 of 24 shots and six out of seven shots in the shootout in winning the game for the scuffling Sharks.

Nabokov and the Sharks took that momentum into "The Pond" in Anaheim on Sunday. But, once again the Sharks offense would only muster one goal. Fortunately, Nabokov made that one goal stand. He stopped all 34 shots to record his sixth shutout of the season.

Hiding behind Nabokov's dominance over the last two games is a Sharks offense that is struggling to score goals.

Joe Thornton has failed to register a point in three consecutive games, and overall the Sharks offense has just three goals in its last three games.

The Sharks have not been the aggressive team of late as they have been regularly outshot by their opponent. The Sharks have not had more shots than their opponent in six of their last seven games.

Most would blame Boucher for the recent losing streak, and after all, he did blow two three goals leads. But the defense has been struggling in front of him for some time. Nabokov posted his highest goals against average in February at 2.76, and Boucher's goal against average is a bloated 3.35 in March.

I tend to believe that the Sharks have simply not been playing very well over since February, and time is wasting for San Jose to find their game back.

NL West Predictions

2009-03-11T10:50:00.000-07:00

The San Francisco Giants had an eventful offseason. They signed longtime nemesis Randy Johnson and relief pitchers Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt to shore the pitching staff. They also signed Edgar Renteria to a lucrative contract of 2 years, 18 million dollars and Juan Uribe. But, they also tried to sign top free agents CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez. CC Sabathia quickly took the money and fame as he signed with the New York Yankees. But Ramirez was on the market up until just last week. His demands of at least 2 years and 45 million dollars scared off every team but two -- the Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Giants decided to keep what they have, and the day Ramirez was signed by the Dodgers might have been the turning point of the entire season.

I fully believed that if Ramirez did not sign with a team in the West division, then the Giants were the favorites. Or at least they would have been in a two team race with the Diamondbacks. Had the Giants signed Ramirez, they would easily won the division. But, the Dodgers now are contenders as well, and I predict their lineup will one of the best in the NL.

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 83-79
As said before, this team has a dangerous lineup. Youngsters Kemp, Loney, Martin and Ethier are all a season more experienced and dangerous. Furcal is the best shortstop in the NL West when healthy, and Ramirez (shown above) is the X-Factor. Despite spotty starting pitching after Billingsley and Kuroda, and a shaky bullpen, the Dodgers should be able to eek out a division title.

2. Arizona Diamonbacks 82-80
Two years ago, the Diamondbacks went to the NLCS. Last year, they added Adam Dunn at the trade deadline, yet they took a huge step back and missed the playoffs. This year there is no Adam Dunn and Orlando Hudson. They lost Randy Johnson as well. Their lineup is filled with youngsters who struggle with plate discipline. If their young lineup can develop and their young pitchers give quality innings, then they can be scary. But, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren wont be enough to get them past the Dodgers.

3. San Francisco Giants 79-83
Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez. That starting five has past dominance and future Cy Youngs written all over it. Of course, the lineup has no power and the bullpen can be shaky at times. But, if Zito can get back to top form and if Pablo Sandoval can be a potent run producer, this team will win the division. But, I'm predicting they will both falter, and the Giants will fall just short.

4. The Colorado Rockies 65-97
This team struggled last year and then lost Matt Holiday in the offseason. Expect a tough season, but look for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to have a bounce back year.

5.The San Diego Paders 64-98
The Padres lineup is terrible after Gonzalez and Giles. Expect the Padres to trade 2007 Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy this season and to continue to rebuild their roster.

Sharks stall in Motown

2009-02-25T21:47:00.000-08:00

In the fourth and final battle between Western Conference's two top teams, the home team won for their fourth consecutive time.

The Detroit Red Wings once again pummeled the San Jose Sharks on their home ice, winning 4-1 Wednesday.

The Red Wings have outscored the Sharks 10-1 in their two games at Joe Louis Arena this year.

The Sharks have an NHL-high 91 points -- three points more than the Red Wings and one more point than the Eastern Conference leading Boston Bruins.

Special teams were the difference for the Red Wings in this game.

The Wings power-play was far more dangerous and efficient than the Sharks was. The Wings went 2 for 7 on the power-play, while the Sharks went 1 for 7.

The Wings also had a short-handed goal, when winger Henrik Zetterberg stole the puck, eventually performed a spectacular spin-move and beat Sharks goalie Evgeni Nabokov stick side.

The longterm affect of this loss is hard to gauge -- after all it is just one regular season game.
But the Sharks have to be worried about their inability to be competitive at "the Joe."

Sharks general manager Doug Wilson has plenty to ponder before the March 8th trade deadline.

The Sharks have shown solid scoring from their top two lines, but they get little to no contribution from their bottom two.

They could give up some prospects for an offensive star.

And of course veteran defensive players are always a good add to a playoff team, especially if that means Alexei Semenov does not touch the ice.

Ultimately, the Sharks are one of the best teams in hockey and no matter what they decide to do at the trade deadline, the big name players are going to have step up.

That means you, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Dan Boyle.

With the season lost, the Warriors are in waiting mode

2009-02-25T00:04:00.000-08:00

The Golden State Warriors are 20-37. They are in tenth place in the West and are currently 14 games out of first place.

The season is over.

The trade deadline passed and the Warriors did not take a part in it. They decided to keep their losing roster together with the hopes that better health and experience will lead to a winning season next season.

They are officially in waiting mode.

Here's a list of the Warriors needs down the stretch to ensure a better season next season:

1. Monta Ellis should be rested for the rest of the season. If he's not 100 percent next year, the Warriors will never sniff the playoffs.

2. PLAY ANTHONY RANDOLPH. Just recently, Lakers star Lamar Odom said that Randolph was like looking in a mirror with more athleticism. He has potential, and the only way he will realize this is if he plays more.

3. Continue to develop winning ways at Oracle. This young team struggled earlier this year to defend its home court. Now, with the team healthy and seasoned, the Warriors must begin to show some dominance on their home court. They will need to win a minimum of 30 games at home next year if they wish to make the playoffs.

4. Ship Corey Maggette to another planet. OK OK. Maggette is a good scorer and he can get to the free-throw line at any time. But, the fact that he has never been part of a winning team suggests that Maggette's inability to pass and poor defense outweigh his ability to score. Don Nelson's decision to bring Maggette off the bench is the right one, and he just try to limit his minutes as much as possible for the remainder of the season so Marco Belinelli, Kelenna Azubuike and CJ Watson can develop. This is just one example of Maggette being "literally" a walking turnover.

5. Stay healthy over the offseason. Yes, this means no mopeds. But in all seriousness, Andris Biedrins should probably rest this offseason instead of playing Olympic basketball. His health is pertinent to the Warriors success. Stephen Jackson averages the second most minutes per game. He needs to ice his legs for six months.

Tejada tests positive for steroids

2009-02-18T09:31:00.000-08:00

Nearly a week ago, it was discovered that Miguel Tejada, a Bay Area icon and former AL MVP, tested positive for steroids.

With Jason Giambi also admitting to steroid use, A's fans must be wondering if all their recent stars were on steroids.

My guess is the Big 3 -- Zito, Mulder and Hudson -- earlier in the century were not on steroids, but no one can be sure.

Tejada's positive test comes day after Rodriguez admitted to steroid use between 2001 and 2003.

Tejada began his career in 1997 with A's and made steady improvements every season. In his 2002 MVP season, he had a .308 batting average, 34 homers and 131 rbis.

But, as with most A's stars, his greatest season made him noticed by other teams and he was lured away by big free-agent money.

The A's were never able to resign Mulder, Zito, Hudson, Giambi and Tejada because they simplyp did not have the revenue, and general manager Billy Beane believed that they could restock with great drafts and player development in the minor leagues.

Yet, all true A's fans that I have met are willing to accept Beane's tactics. And although Beane has not taken the A's to a World Series, he made the A's a consistent contender in the early 2000s.

Just two years after his MVP season, Tejada took the money, a six-year, 72 million$ contract, with the Baltimore Orioles.

Last year, Tejada signed with the Houston Astros. He struggled mightily, hitting just 13 homers (his lowest total since his second season) and a .283 batting average.

Ultimately, the Bay Area may be the mecca of steroid ball. Barry Bonds and Matt Williams were two of my favorite hitters growing up, and they both took some type of performance-enhancing drug.

With BALCO's headquarters just around the corner, it would not surprise if other Giant and A's greats took 'roids.

Challenges and Opportunities for Bloggers

2009-02-04T11:07:00.000-08:00

Pros- Blogging gives everyone a stage to express themselves to the entire world. It gives people the opportunity to communicate their opinions and gives others a chance to read information that can be very influential.

Cons- I believe that the majority of Bloggers are fairly accurate with their information, but, blogs lack accountability that newspapers have. Also, I can post anything I want, and it may be much more interesting than newspapers, but it will be difficult for me to get people to read my blog because without advertising, it is difficult to promote it.